The New England Patriots caught people off-guard when they signed both Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry to lucrative deals this offseason. To some, this has caused murky waters for fantasy football purposes. But to me, a key component of fantasy football is following the money. The players with the highest contracts get the most opportunity. I believe Jonnu Smith will have ample opportunity for success because of that.
Jonnu Smith and the Patriots
Bill Belichick loves Jonnu Smith. Prior to the Patriots acquiring him this offseason, Belichick had nothing but praise to say of the then-Titans TE. One key component to that praise is Belichick’s belief in Jonnu’s YAC (yards after catch) capability, and there’s a reason he believes that.
In the past two seasons Jonnu has been a top-5 TE in YAC, with an excellent career number of 6.7. This isn’t because he’s catching passes while wide open, either. Last year, Smith placed 3rd in YAC versus expectation behind George Kittle and Tyler Higbee. In 2019, he was first in that category, with 3.8 YAC versus expectation (per NextGen Stats). Jonnu is already showing early signs of this in the preseason.
Jonnu Smith already making plays for the Patriots 🔥👀
pic.twitter.com/pzfTZoBBpJ— Dynasty Nerds 🤓 (@DynastyNerds) August 13, 2021
It’s clear that Bill Belichick’s plan is to utilize Jonnu in a variety of ways, exploiting his incredible athleticism. Not much of a blocker, Jonnu excels nearly everywhere else. He has an ability to line up anywhere on the field, including the backfield. He’s done that with success in Tennessee, and is getting reps there at training camp this year.
Remember when I told you Jonnu Smith is your Best Buy in the late rounds ? This is Jonnu in the backfield 🐺🏆 pic.twitter.com/Zjqb3NOuvV
— LaQuan Jones 🐺🏆 (@RealDealFantasy) August 5, 2021
Josh McDaniels
Josh McDaniels has been a staple in the Patriots offense, being with the team for over a decade. McDaniels loves to utilize tight ends in his offense (when he has capable ones). So much so, that tight ends accounted for at least 20% of the offense’s total target distribution five out of six years (from 2012-2017).
New England Patriots Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels's Target Distribution Each Year (as an OC/HC)
2006-2008: New England #Patriots OC
2009-2010: Denver #Broncos HC
2011: St. Louis #Rams OC
2012-Present: New England #Patriots OC pic.twitter.com/kJfPyU1CQB— Eli Grabanski (@3li_handles) February 21, 2021
These numbers also coincide with touchdown percentages for the position.
Jonnu Smith (and Hunter Henry to a lesser extent) will be utilized heavily in this offense. He will be fed targets and opportunity regardless of who the quarterback is.
At the moment, Smith’s ADP is as the TE17, averaging 136 overall (between three Dynasty formats), per Sleeper’s ADP. That’s about the 3rd pick in the 11th round. In my own personal leagues, I’ve gotten him as late as the 12th pick in the 11th round, and have seen him go anywhere the 11th round, to the 13th. He’s going behind Hunter Henry and just above Zach Ertz.
As far as trade value is concerned, it’s a mixed bag. His value is currently trending upward, but can be had for incredibly cheap depending on the fantasy football manager. For example, only two days prior to the writing of this piece, he was traded straight up for Denzel Mims.
At that price tag, Smith is a steal. He won’t be used as a prototypical tight end in New England’s offense. Hunter Henry’s presence isn’t going to be as much of a hindrance to his production as people believe.
On top of that, Jonnu is only going to be 26 years old going into this year. He will be a pertinent dynasty asset for years, and you should get him before he explodes in New England.
