In this installment of fantasy football dynasty buys, we will be discussing Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones. You can view the previous article on Terrace Marshall here. This article was written in conjunction with @FFParks.
When it comes to Ronald Jones, people always forget two things. The first being just how young he is. RoJo will go into his fourth NFL season at only 24 years old. Running backs in this age group have the third highest chance of a top-5 finish, and the fourth highest chance of a top-12 finish.
The other thing people forget about Ronald Jones? Just how good he truly is.
The Stats
RoJo hit the ground running during his time at USC, totaling over 1,000 scrimmage yards on 160 touches with nine touchdowns as an 18-year old Freshman. While his YPC slowly lowered during his three-year career at USC, his production only increased. His final season would showed he’s capable of being a workhorse as well, having 261 rush attemps and making the most out of his pass-catching opportunities.
In 2018, RoJo was selected in the 2nd round by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He found himself in a crowded RB room, finishing third in touches behind Peyton Barber and Jacquizz Rodgers (no wonder Koetter got fired).
After another slow start by Barber to start the 2019 season, RoJo finally got his chance; and would end up out-touching Barber on the season, 203 to 170. He finished that year with the 11th-highest elusiveness rating with the 8th-highest breakaway percentage, per PFF.
The Breakout
RoJo had himself a career year in 2020. He would rush for 978 yards on 192 attempts with seven touchdowns, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, sixth-best among all running backs. Jones led all running backs in the NFL with three yards yards after contact per rush, per PFR. He also finished 2nd in yards per attempt against 8+ man boxes. These are a few examples of why RoJo’s efficiency was regarded as elite in 2020.
People may have forgotten just how good Ronald Jones was for most of the season. Through Week 14, he was fourth in rushing yards. He was forced to miss Week 15 and 16 due to injury and landing on the COVID-19 List. Before that point, Jones was on pace for over 1,100 rushing yards. To put that in perspective, only four other running backs ended up hitting that mark in 2020. This doesn’t even factor the often-baffling decision of Bruce Arians to play Leonard Fournette over Jones, despite the latter producing at more efficient numbers.
Ronald Jones goes 98-yards TO THE HOUSE.
Tied for the longest run in Bucs history. #FantasyFootball | #GoBucs pic.twitter.com/zPG203XpjH
— QB List (@TheQBlist) November 15, 2020
Through 14 games in 2020, RoJo finished as a Top-24 running back eight times, with two of those finishes in the Top-5.
Other elite advanced rushing stats:
- Average Yards After Contact (93rd percentile)
- Positive Run % (91st percentile)
- Rushing TD % (80th percentile)
Fantasy Football Outlook
As of right now, RoJo is going as the overall RB33 per Sleeper App’s most recent ADP release. That’s behind guys Leonard Fournette, Kenyan Drake, and James Conner. And for some reason, his ADP is actually trending downward as we get closer to the season.
We’ve reached that point in the offseason where Ronald Jones is a tremendous value once again. Yes, Bruce Arians has suggested he views Fournette and Jones as co-starters heading into training camp, but do we truly believe ‘Playoff Lenny’ will return during the regular season – something he hasn’t done recently at all? Yes, they did bring in Giovani Bernard into the room as well, but he sees to cut more into Fournette’s workload rather than Jones’.
This is where RoJo’s dynasty outlook comes into play.
2021 is the last year that Jones is under contract with Tampa Bay. If Bruce Arians chooses to utilize Bernard or Fournette more than Jones, the decision for him is easy. If Arians chooses to make RoJo the lead back, his future is secure in Tampa Bay.
Jones’ rushing numbers (and age) put him in an unique opportunity going forward. He will be good enough to start somewhere going forward, and should be able to reliable put up at minimum, RB2 numbers for the next 2-3 years.
In terms of trade value, RoJo is another player whose value is sporadic depending on the owner and fantasy football league you’re in. He’s often being packaged into ‘smaller’ type of trades – usually involving bench players or fringe starters.
Given the seemingly unstable nature of the Bucs’ backfield, it makes sense to be hesitant on any one player. But, when you’re playing fantasy football (especially in dynasty), you need to bet on youth and talent. If it works out, you got yourself an elite player for a very cost-efficient price. If it doesn’t, you didn’t necessarily squander your team or its future in an unfortunate circumstance. Take the chance on RoJo and don’t look back.
