League Winners is proud to present Fact Or Fiction. A new series featuring two of our staff members Jesse Moeller and Joe O’Leary. Every week Jesse and Joe will tackle popular fantasy football topics and make their case on each, whether it’s fact or fiction. Topics will range from redraft to dynasty. Jesse and Joe will sprinkle in a little of everything fantasy football related.
Well what are we waiting for? Let’s dive right into fact or fiction article one!
Joe Burrow will be a QB1 (Top-12) in 2021?
Jesse: Fiction
As much as I loved Joe Burrow last season, I have concerns. He finished as the QB19 last year in PPG while averaging over 40 attempts per game. The efficiency needs to increase from Burrow for him to jump into the top-12 this year. With the injury concerns and the vaunted rookie quarterback class coming in, I have Burrow as my QB16 for this season. He is a high-end QB2 for fantasy football who will flirt with QB1 numbers.
Joe: Fiction
This one is probably going to be really close. Does Burrow have the upside and potential ceiling to land inside the top-12? Absolutely. The addition of Ja’Marr Chase to a receiving room that already boasted Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins is tantalizing.
Beyond coming off his ACL injury, I still want to see some progression in Joe Burrow’s game. I love the situation and the potential volume, but I’m leaning just outside right now. Burrow is currently my QB13 for 2021. While I may be a little closer than Jesse, it’s still fiction for me.
Travis Etienne will outscore James Robinson in 2021 (PPR)
Jesse: Fact
Big Facts! You do not spend that draft capital on a player and use him in a part-time role. Let’s say Etienne is the passing down back in Jacksonville. That would mean Etienne is getting the valuable touches in the backfield, as a reception is worth 2.5x more than a carry. Etienne is the guy you want in this backfield. Jacksonville has one of the worst defenses in the league. The Jaguars will be in numerous passing down situations, which would be a boost for the passing down back. Etienne will outscore James Robinson this year.
Joe: Fiction
I’ll tentatively go the other way here. Travis Etienne is the shiny new toy Urban Meyer selected in the first round of this year’s draft. He will eventually take over this backfield. James Robinson is no slouch however, and don’t expect him to hand over this backfield willingly.
Robinson passed the eye test last year with flying colors. I still think Robinson can be viable in 2021 and prove to be a flex-worthy option. He should maintain the edge with early-down rushing and see a sufficient amount of goal-line work. He’s a player that proved he can play on all three downs (49 receptions in 2020) and is durable. This likely will be close. Give me Robinson by a hair.
JK Dobbins will be a top-10 Dynasty Running Back by the end of 2021
Jesse: Fact
I’m the biggest JK Dobbins guy I know. I currently have him a top-5 dynasty running back. Dobbins is the lead back (I’m not worried about Gus Edwards) in an offense with Lamar Jackson. He has elite TD potential and efficiency on his side. Even a 60% snap share locks in a top-12 season for him in 2021. Invest now, and enjoy the rise of Dobbins value.
Joe: Fact
JK Dobbins is currently going at RB17 according to Dynasty League Football. By the end of the 2021 season, I fully expect that to change. Dobbins captivated in his rookie season, totaling 925 yards and nine touchdowns. Dobbins averaged 6.0 yards per carry on 134 attempts. Even more impressive was a 5.4 true yards per carry average and an 8.2% breakaway run rate (both led the NFL). I get there are concerns with passing game work and the return of Gus Edwards to the Ravens backfield. JK Dobbins is a special running back who is only getting better. Dobbins is set to smash in 2021 and soar up dynasty rankings.
Drew Lock will start Week 1 for the Denver Broncos
Jesse: Fiction
Drew Lock was the worst QB in the league last year. To me, it seemed as if he was hyped up based on narratives and not based on his play going into the year. Lock was 28th last year with a QBR of 48.8, along with a DVOA of -16.2. I’m out on him until I see otherwise to believe in Lock. I love the pieces around him, I just don’t believe in the talent.
Joe: Fact
I’m going fact with one eye open and my stomach a little squeamish. Drew Lock hasn’t been the model of consistency, but he did show some promise late in the season down the stretch in his last four games with a 7/2 TD INT ratio and a 96.3 Passer Rating. If he can focus on fewer turnovers and mistakes, he will get the first crack at the job.
We know what Teddy Bridgewater is. He’s a steady veteran with limited upside. Drew Lock has the higher ceiling in this Denver offense. News out of camp so far has Lock looking comfortable and efficient. It will be Drew Lock’s last shot likely in Denver, but I think he gets the nod first.
We hope you have enjoyed our first segment of ‘Fact Or Fiction’. Stay tuned for more. We will have Fact Or Fiction every week in season tackling all the fantasy football hot topics.
