Fantasy Football Fact or Fiction: Week 10

Jesse Moeller and Joe O’Leary are back with a week ten version of Fact or Fiction. The guys will cover some of the hottest fantasy football topics across the landscape and each makes their case for or against.

It’s time once again for Fact or Fiction.

Baker Mayfield over 1.5 touchdown passes versus New England this week

Joe: Fiction

For whatever reason, Baker Mayfield performs better without Odell Beckham Jr. who was released last week. Baker turned in an efficient outing against the Bengals last week, throwing for 218 yards and two touchdowns to zero interceptions.

This week, the matchup gets tougher on the road against New England. The Patriots have allowed two touchdown passes by quarterbacks in only half of their games. Baker has thrown two or more touchdowns in only three of eight games played thus far in 2021. New England is top ten in the league, allowing only 231 passing yards per game. They are limiting opposing quarterbacks to only 201 yards per game in their last three outings. The Patriots are vulnerable against the run. I expect the Browns to try and control the clock and pound Nick Chubb (if he plays) this week. I’ll take my chances with Baker being under two touchdown passes this week.

Jesse: Fact

I struggled with this one this week. It felt like a line I could not make my mind up on, as I went back and forth on it before coming to my decision. I am going out on a limb here, but sometimes you have to trust your gut. The Patriots have become a run funnel defense this season, as they clamped down against opposing quarterbacks.

The numbers would tell you to bet against Baker in this matchup, but the performance we saw from him opened up eyes as he was lights out against the Bengals. Thus, giving further credence to the talking point that Baker is better without OBJ. Baker has taken advantage of teams trying to stop the Browns vaunted rushing attack and is currently top-5 in Big Plays, aDOT, and Yards Per Attempt. I expect Baker to hit a few big plays against this defense and find the endzone multiple times in Week 10.

Mike Williams will have double-digit PPR points this week versus the Vikings

Joe: Fact

It’s no secret Mike Williams has been struggling lately. Williams has been held to just 16.4 total PPR points in the last three games, with just six receptions for 104 yards.

The matchup is good this week in hopes of a rebound, facing a middle of the road Vikings pass defense. The Vikings are 16th in the league allowing 247 passing yards per game. They’ve struggled in the last couple weeks in particular, allowing 100-yard games to Marquise Brown, Cee Dee Lamb, and Amari Cooper.

It looks like a prime bounce-back opportunity for Williams this week in a game featuring the second highest over-under of week ten.

Jesse: Fact

Big Mike got off to a blazing start to the season. In the first five games, Williams had amassed 116.1 PPR points or 23.2 PPG in fantasy football. Sadly, the wheels have fallen off for Williams. In the three games following, Williams has averaged a measly 5.46 PPG. So what has gone wrong for him?

Big Mike dealt with a knee scare earlier this year, but reported that his knee was fine after the bye in Week 7. It doesn’t seem that we can use that as an excuse for his lack of production. Williams also had his highest snap shares the last two weeks, so he is on the field and running routes. Ultimately, the previous two matchups were difficult, as the defenses took Williams away from the passing game. The schedule lightens up these next few weeks, so we should see Williams return to weekly fantasy relevance.

Bama Battle: DeVonta Smith will outscore Jerry Jeudy in Week 10 (PPR)

Joe: Fiction

Two of Alabama’s most recent premiere wide receiver graduates square off this weekend, in DeVonta Smith and Jerry Jeudy. DeVonta Smith rebounded after a rough stretch with a huge performance in Week 9, exploding for 5/116/1 in a tough matchup against the Chargers. Jerry Jeudy is entering what will be his third game back from an early-season injury. He’s hauled in at least four receptions in every game. While not hitting his ceiling yet, Jeudy has shown a steady floor.

Smith faces a Broncos team that just put the clamps on Amari Cooper and Cee Dee Lamb. I’m going to take my chances on Jerry Jeudy against an Eagles team that has struggled this year against slot receivers. The Eagles just got torched in the middle by Keenan Allen allowing 12 receptions for 104 yards. Jerry Jeudy has worked in the slot on 69 percent of his snaps. One more week removed from his ankle injury, Jerry Jeudy is an explosion spot this week against DeVonta Smith’s Eagles. I’m going Fiction that Smith outsocores Jeudy this week in fantasy football PPR formats.

Jesse: Fact

Both DeVonta Smith and Jerry Jeudy are two of the better young wide receivers in the NFL. The most notable difference is DeVonta is the unquestioned alpha of the Eagle’s passing attack, while Jeudy has significant competition from his partner in crime, Courtland Sutton. We also have the matchup for each team, and the Eagles are the worst in the NFL for opposing WR (in fantasy football), where the Broncos are middle of the road. So you have multiple issues working against Jeudy in this game. First, the matchup is not a good one. Second, Jeudy is battling to be the WR1 on his team. Lastly, he is coming off a high ankle sprain, an injury that limits players throughout the season. I will take the Slim Reaper this week.

Patrick Mahomes will be a QB1 (Top-12) quarterback this week

Joe: Fiction

What in the world is going on with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense? Mahomes hasn’t eclipsed 20 fantasy football points in a game in three weeks. The Raiders have been solid against the pass this year, ranking fifth in passing yards allowed (206.9 Per Game). They’ve allowed only allowed three QB1 performances through nine weeks.

With the likely returns of Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers this week, the quarterback landscape in fantasy football gets a boost. It feels crazy to even type this, but Patrick Mahomes will be outside the top-12 once again for the fourth straight week.

Jesse: Fact

What is worse? Jackson Mahomes’ endless TikTok dances, or the collapse of the Kansas City dynasty? While I believe the shade for the Chiefs offense has gone overboard, it made you think for a second, didn’t it?

Mahomes and company are still one of the better units in the league. However, the problems are multiple issues simultaneously, compounding to turn a molehill into a mountain for Mahomes. This year, KC has turned the ball over on 20% of its possessions, which is more than double the 9% of possessions from last season. This in turn, is leading to fewer scoring opportunities for Kansas City, hurting Mahomes in the fantasy department. In addition, the defense cannot stop anyone. They are turning opposing quarterbacks into Patrick Mahomes (well, except for Jordan Love.)

Would it surprise you to know Mahomes is still 9th in fantasy PPG? How about Mahomes having almost an identical on-target percent to his career average? While Mahomes is playing the worst ball of his career, it is much closer to his career averages than the media would have you believe. Mahomes is a locked and loaded QB1 moving forward.