Jesse Moeller and Joe O’Leary are back with another rendition of Fact or Fiction. The guys take on four hot fantasy football topics and make their case for or against.
It’s time for Fact or Fiction.
Russell Wilson over 1.5 touchdown passes versus the Cardinals
Joe: Fact
For the first time with Russell Wilson at quarterback, the Seattle Seahawks were shut out last week against the Packers. Did Russ rush back from his finger injury? Possibly. I’m expecting a highly motivated Wilson this week at home in a must-win against the Cardinals.
The Cardinals are middle of the pack, having allowed 14 passing touchdowns in ten games this year. They’ve allowed two touchdown passes or more in half of their games played. The game struts the second-highest over-under of the weekend with a 50 point over-under. You can’t hold Russell Wilson down forever. Russ will be cooking on Sunday. Give me the over.
Jesse: Fact
While this may seem like a lock, Seattle’s offense has been a major disappointment this season. Russ returned from his hand injury and struggled, missing some passes that he rarely does. The entire offense fell flat. It was evident that Wilson was not 100% in the matchup against the Packers in Week 10. Wilson should start looking like the All-World quarterback we remember with another week to recover and heal the injury.
This matchup is less than ideal for the Seahawks, a team that is desperate for a win. They cannot afford many more losses this season. Arizona is 23rd in fantasy football points allowed to the quarterback position. Wilson will have his work cut out for him. The Cardinals defense blitzes on almost 30% of pass attempts, which has helped lead them to being top-3 in turnovers. Causing offenses to turn the ball over on 17.6% of drives. When it comes down to it, Wilson is Mr. Unlimited and should be able to find the endzone multiple times on Sunday.
Austin Ekeler outscores Najee Harris in PPR this week
Joe: Fiction
This one is tough because Austin Ekeler and Najee Harris are two elite PPR options. Ekeler is PPR RB3 in fantasy football while Najee currently checks in at RB4.
I’m going to give Najee the slight edge when the two meet on Sunday night. Both players are so consistent and provide a safe floor every week; so its a really tough decision. Harris averages 19.5 PPR points per week while Ekeler averages 19.9. While Austin Ekeler is as reliable as they come, Najee is just on another level in terms of opportunity he’s seeing on the field. Najee is averaging an insane 24.4 touches per game.
It’s not a matchup to fear for either running back. Pittsburgh is a little better versus the run overall, but they have been getting gashed lately for 153.7 yards per game. The Chargers rank dead last in the league allowing 155.1 rushing yards per game on the season.
It’s close, but give me Najee Harris outscoring Austin Ekeler this week.
Jesse: Fact
After last week, I am unsure what to make of the Pittsburgh Steelers defense against running backs. Steelers were among the best defenses in fantasy points allowed to the position and gashed for over 200 yards on almost 40 attempts.
Pittsburgh yielding an insane 38.4 fantasy points to Lions running backs was the surprise of the Week 10. Seeing D’Andre Swift turn into prime Adrian Peterson against the vaunted Steelers defense was not something I ever expected to see.
On the other side, we have the Chargers run funnel defense, who welcome opposing teams to run the ball against them. Both running backs should have big days, and I expect Austin Ekeler to end up the top-dog due to the Charger’s advantage at the quarterback position.
AJ Dillon is a top ten running back this week against Minnesota
Joe: Fact
AJ Dillon gets his chance at the spotlight with the news that Aaron Jones may miss 1-2 weeks. Fantasy football managers have been impatiently waiting for the day Dillon would handle a full workload. The wait is over.
Dillon checks in at RB10 according to Fantasy Pros ECR this week. The matchup looks great on paper. The Vikings are 28th in the league allowing 130.6 rushing yards per game. With Green Bay down Aaron Jones and Kylin Hill, the Packers are left with just Dillon and Patrick Taylor. Dillon could be in store for a monster workload volume-wise this week. He should have a stranglehold on the majority of the work as well as goal-line duties.
Volume is king. AJ Dillon will be a top ten or better running back this week against the Vikings.
Jesse: Fiction
A.J. Dillon has the potential to be the league-winning running back to end the fantasy football season. The injury to Aaron Jones opens the door for Dillon to seize an opportunity few running backs get. If the matchup were better, I would have more confidence in Dillon to lock him into the top-10 weekly running backs.
Minnesota is middle of the road in fantasy points allowed to running backs on the year, so it’s not a cakewalk game for Dillon. While the workload will enable Dillon to end up inside the top-10, I am unsure if the efficiency will follow along. I anticipate Dillon to fall short of the top-10 and end up just outside of it this week.
AJ Brown over 18.9 (Sleeper Projection) PPR points versus the Texans
Joe: Fact
It’s been an up and down 2021 so far for Titans star wide receiver AJ Brown. Brown is currently the PPR WR30 in fantasy football and coming off a 1/16 outing last week against the Saints. On deck is a welcomed matchup versus the Texans.
The Texans have been largely obliterated by opposing teams top receiving options.
- Cooper Kupp 7/115/1
- Deandre Hopkins 7/53/1
- Stefon Diggs 7/114
- DJ Moore 8/126
It’s tough to trust AJ Brown right now. He’s only gone over 18.9 PPR points twice this year, but this is the matchup to exploit. Game script could be an issue, but the Titans offensively are limited right now without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones. I’m going to roll the dice and say AJ Brown bounces back in a big way in Week 11.
Jesse: Fact
Should Houston’s defense be a lock for Brown to smash this week? Well, not necessarily. Houston has held wide receivers in check this season. Not because the defense is good, it is the exact opposite. Both the offense and defense are some of the worst units in the NFL. However, it does suppress the game scores, as opposing teams are not required to be aggressive against Houston.
As for the defense, you can pick your poison and beat this group. In four of the last six games, the Texans have trailed by double digits at halftime. With no urgency needed, the games have stalled out in the second half, putting a cap on points and yards. With all that said, A.J. Brown is one of the elite talents at wide receiver in the NFL. AJB will be a matchup problem for Houston and should be able to beat his projection this week
