As we enter Week 12 Jesse Moeller and Joe O’Leary are here with the latest edition of Fact or Fiction. The guys tackle popular fantasy football topics and each makes their case.
It’s time once again for Fact or Fiction.
Devonta Freeman will be a top-15 running back in Week 12
Joe: Fact
Don’t look now, but Devonta Freeman has taken over the reigns at running back for the Baltimore Ravens. Freeman is averaging 13.86 PPR points per game over his last five games. It hasn’t been pretty, but Freeman is getting it done.
Freeman gets the Cleveland Browns this week at home. The Browns have been gashed the last two weeks giving up 100+ yard efforts to rookie Rhamondre Stevenson, and D’Andre Swift.
Coming off an RB1 performance in Week 11, I’m going to go fact with Foreman this week; carrying over his success one more time against the Browns struggling run unit.
Jesse: Fiction
I never expected to be debating this topic in 2021. However, the fact we are addressing this highlights just how chaotic this fantasy football season has been. My concern with Freeman is the elevated rate with which the Ravens have passed this year – leaping from 44% last season to 55% this season. The Ravens are averaging ten more pass attempts per game. Even with that decrease in rushing, the offense still runs entirely through Lamar.
415 of 672 (61.75% ) possible plays have ended with Lamar passing or rushing the ball, which includes Lamar missing the Week 11 game. Lamar has a 33% opportunity share of the rushing attempts. This puts a squeeze on the running back room, especially one headlined by a running back Baltimore found off of the street. The matchup is not advantageous for Freeman, as Cleveland is 20th in fantasy points allowed over average to the position. I will take the under on Freeman this week.
Ryan Tannehill over 243 passing yards (season average) against New England
Joe: Fiction
Now is not the time you want to see your fantasy football quarterback facing the Patriots on the schedule. The Pats have been downright suffocating quarterbacks lately. They’ve given up an average of only 191 passing yards per game during their current five-game winning streak.
It’s an uphill battle offensively right now for the Ryan Tannehill-led Titans without Derrick Henry and Julio Jones. The Patriots will be able to use star cornerback JC Jackson on AJ Brown. Over the last five weeks, Jackson has allowed the lowest passer rating when targeted, along with four interceptions (first). He’s allowed eight catches for 98 yards on 25 targets during that stretch. Simply put, Tannehill will have to look elsewhere on Sunday as Bill Belichick is infamous for taking out a team’s best weapon.
It’s going to be tough sledding for Ryan Tannehill through the air on Sunday afternoon in Foxboro.
Jesse: Fiction
Ryan Tannehill must be looking around and wondering what happened this season. After back-to-back highly efficient seasons, Tannehill looks nothing like that quarterback this year. However, while comparing Tannehill’s metrics to his previous season, two stats have stuck out like a sore thumb. The amount of interceptable passes and danger plays by Tannehill is jaw-dropping.
Tannehill leads the NFL with 65 total plays of that nature; and it does make sense when you look at the lack of talented skill players the Titans currently have available. If A.J. Brown misses Week 12, the top two wide receivers will be Chester Rodgers and Dez Fitzpatrick against the Patriots defense. That has the makings of a disaster. Please give me the under on 243 passing yards.
Justin Jefferson outscores Deebo Samuel in PPR this week
Joe: Fiction
It’s never a safe bet going against one of the hottest wide receivers in football. Justin Jefferson is scorching hot posting 9/143 and 8/169/2 lines in his last two games. I will go against him this week and here’s why.
Deebo has scored double-digit PPR points in every single game this season. He’s currently the fantasy football PPR WR3. The matchup against the Vikings is one to exploit. The Vikings allow 32.6 PPR points per game to wide receivers, providing the 4th best matchup on paper. According to Broto Fantasy Football, they allow 17.6% points over average to the position as well.
It’s not a matchup to fear for Justin Jefferson, but San Francisco has improved lately on defense. In a matchup of heavyweights this week, give me Deebo Samuel with the slight edge over Justin Jefferson.
Jesse: Fact
What can’t Justin Jefferson do? The pace Jefferson is currently on is insane, as he set himself up to beat his rookie stats if the NFL played 16 games. Add in the 17th game, and Jefferson blows it out of the water. Somehow, Jefferson is besting his numbers with Kirk Cousins as his quarterback – someone the fantasy football community loves to hate. Not bad for a 22-year-old kid.
How many wide receivers would you take over Jefferson at the moment? I bet you that number is minimal, if any at all.
Jefferson gets a 49ers defense that has been mediocre against wide receivers this season. Give Kirk Cousins time, and Jefferson is going to eat the 49ers secondary for lunch. The NFL is full of young promising wide receivers. Jefferson is likely the best of the bunch, if not all NFL wide receivers.
Turkey Day Special: Which position player (RB/WR/TE) scores the most PPR points on Thanksgiving?
Joe: David Montgomery
The three-game Thanksgiving slate offers some intriguing games; Chicago at Detroit, Las Vegas at Dallas, and Buffalo at New Orleans. The Thanksgiving schedule does take a hit with the likelihood that the Cowboys are without Amari Cooper (Covid-19) and potentially Cee Dee Lamb (concussion).
I’m going with David Montgomery against the lowly Lions. Montgomery will enter his third week off returning from his injury and sees a salivating matchup versus Detroit. According to Broto Fantasy Football, the Lions are giving up a gigantic 36.3% points over average to running backs. Here’s a list of performances to feature running backs Detroit has allowed this season.
- Elijah Mitchell 16.4 PPR points
- Aaron Jones 41.5 PPR points
- David Montgomery (!) 22.6 PPR points
- Alexander Mattison 26.3 PPR points
- Joe Mixon 26.3 PPR points
- Jordan Howard 17.7 PPR points
- Najee Harris 17.3 PPR points
- Nick Chubb 22.4 PPR points
I rest my case.
Jesse: D’Andre Swift
Remember when the fantasy football community decided to fade D’Andre Swift due to his situation? Someone needs to tag @FreezingColdTakes for that one. It is a yearly reminder that talent will win out. Swift is 2nd in weighted opportunities and 1st in Targets this season, doing so on a 20% Target Share. Swift has taken hold of the opportunities this year in an offense with not much outside of Swift (Sorry, T.J. Hockenson).
While David Montgomery has a mouth-watering matchup against Lion’s defense that cannot stop running backs, please give me the better running back in a game where Tim Boyle will funnel Targets in Swift’s direction. As we have seen talent wins out, Swift is the player I’m placing my bets on this Thanksgiving day.
