Welcome back to another edition of fact or fiction. Jesse and Joe take you through four important fantasy football topics and each makes their case for or against.
It’s fact or fiction time, League Winners.
Alexander Mattison is a top-15 running back in Week 13
Joe: Fact
With the news that Dalvin Cook has a torn labrum and may miss some time, in steps Alexander Mattison to fill Cook’s shoes.
And fill in Mattison has done.
In the two games Mattison has started for Cook in 2021, he has surpassed 100 yards rushing and 23 plus PPR points.
The matchup in Week 13 is enticing as well. The Vikings square off with the lowly Lions who have allowed 39.2% over average to the running back position (2nd worst). Mattison won’t only be a top-15 running back this week, he’s going to push for top-12 or better. Start him with confidence in Week 13.
Jesse: Fact
I tried to find a way to argue against this, but I was unable to do it. I am a big Kene Nwangwu fan, but Mattison is the first man up and gets a dream matchup against the Detroit Lions in Week 13. Mattison is not the same talent as Dalvin Cook but will be given a sizeable workload, as Minnesota loves to feature its lead back. Then we add in the Lions defense, who has been atrocious against running backs, and Mattison is a lock to finish inside the top-15 barring injury; and could push for a top-5 finish. This season, the only team worse against running backs have been the New York Jets, who are historically bad at allowing fantasy points to the position. So it is a safe bet to take the over on Mattison this weekend.
Taysom Hill will be a QB1 (top-12) this week
Joe: Fact
The Saints finally pulled the plug on the Trevor Siemian experience, turning the QB1 reins over to Taysom Hill. Hill was 3-1 as a starter in 2020 filling in for Drew Brees. He completed 71.8 percent of his passes while accounting for eight touchdowns in four games.
The matchup on paper may not look great versus the Cowboys, as they are overall pretty solid against the pass. The Cowboys have fared well against rushing quarterbacks, but Taysom Hill is a different version. Hill is a weapon to score anytime near the goal line. With Taysom Hill under center, the Saints can open things up more in the playbook. Hill’s rushing ability provides a stable floor.
Taysom Hill will be a top-12 quarterback for fantasy football in Week 13.
Jesse: Fiction
While Taysom is a cheat code for fantasy football points, the cast of characters around him in New Orleans is quite depressing. Losing Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas has shown how limited this offense is. No matter how good Sean Payton’s scheme is, it should not surprise anyone to see Trevor Siemian struggle the way he did against Buffalo on Thanksgiving. A good scheme without talent is still a lousy scheme.
Dallas has been good against opposing quarterbacks this season and will make it a tough night for Taysom Hill. While Hill can always run for 50 yards and two touchdowns for a higher-end QB1 performance, I do not see it going that way. The most yards Dallas has given up on the ground this season were in Week 3 when they allowed 35 yards to Jalen Hurts. Taysom will need to beat Dallas through the air, and the Cowboys are currently top-6 in defensive EPA this season.
Javonte Williams is a top-5 dynasty running back
Joe: Fiction
I absolutely love Javonte Williams and his career projection, but top five fantasy football dynasty running back feels a bit premature.
According to DLF’s latest October SuperFlex data, Javonte Williams is RB15. I’m certainly higher than the consensus there on Javonte. A big part of dynasty is being ahead of the curve on a player. While I believe Williams is inching closer to that range I still have him outside the top five. The position is littered talent-wise with CMC, Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, D’andre Swift, Najee Harris, Saquon Barkley, and Austin Ekeler.
Javonte’s time is coming. For now, he’s outside my top five dynasty running backs.
Jesse: Fiction
I do not understand how we have gotten to this point with Javonte in dynasty. It reminds me of the hype J.K. Dobbins and Cam Akers received this offseason (man, they would have smashed), except there is a significant problem propping up a player with so much uncertainty surrounding him.
If you currently view Javonte as a top-5 asset, you are expecting numerous things to break right for him this offseason to have him pay off at that price. Here are the concerns I have regarding Denver’s situation moving forward:
Will Fangio be the head coach in 2022? Who will be the starting quarterback? Will Denver resign Gordon or bring in another running back? Will the offensive scheme change?
Ja’Marr Chase outscores Keenan Allen in Week 13 (PPR)
Joe: Fiction
It’s a heavyweight bout Sunday in Cincinnati at the wide receiver position when rookie phenom Ja’Marr Chase squares off with the reliable veteran Keenan Allen. While those two technically never face each other, it’s fun to try and predict who will have the better fantasy football outcome.
I’m going with the Ol’ Wiley technician in the slot, Keenan Allen. Ja’Marr Chase has hit a bit of a rookie wall averaging 10.4 PPR points per game in his last four games. Chase has been held to 3 receptions in three of those games as well. Meanwhile, Keenan Allen is once again cooking. Allen is averaging 19.1 PPR points per game over his last five outings raising his season tally to WR9 overall.
Each receiver faces a middle-of-the-road matchup. Nothing to fear for the most part in either direction. There’s hesitation Chase could blow up with one big scoring play (8 touchdowns to Allen’s 2), but I’m going to ride the hot streak with Keenan Allen in Week 13.
Jesse: Fiction
Keenan Allen is back, folks; or as the real ones would say, Allen never left. Allen has again shown that his skillset ages like a fine wine, as he is a true alpha on pace for another 150+ targets this season. Allen is pushing 30 years old and shows no signs of slowing down. With how Allen wins as a receiver, we are in store for multiple high-end seasons before the inevitable drop-off comes. Allen has only fallen short of double-digit targets three times this season.
As great as Chase is, what has propelled him to the torrid start has been his efficiency, as Chase has been top ten in both fantasy points per route run and target. The difference between the two players comes down to volume, as Allen averages three more targets per game than Chase. The Chargers offense passes at a higher rate than the Bengals, and Allen is earning a higher Target Share, which means Chase has to keep up his ridiculous efficiency to stay with Allen.
Not only does Keenan see more opportunities, the matchup for Ja’Marr this week is difficult. I might prefer to bet on Chase in a neutral game, but the Chargers are one of the best teams at stopping opposing wide receivers. Hence, ranking 30th in Fantasy Points allowed over average to the position. While Chase’s talent is undeniable, I am reasonably confident Allen will outproduce Chase this week in fantasy football.
