It’s crazy to think we have arrived at Week 17. Jesse Moeller and Joe O’Leary are back for the final edition of fact or fiction for the 2021 fantasy football season. Thank you to all who have read the weekly segment.
It’s time for fact or fiction.
Rashaad Penny will be a top-10 RB in Week 17
Joe: Fact
Rashaad Penny heads into championship week off the heels of his second 100-yard rushing effort in the last three weeks. He’s finished as a top-10 running back in two of his last three games. The schedule looks fantasy-friendly as the Seahawks face-off with the Lions at home in Week 17. Detroit is 27th in the NFL allowing 127.3 rushing yards per game in 2021. The Lions have allowed 16 rushing touchdowns as well (Tied 6th most).
Fantasy football managers should be confident Penny can return the favor one more time this week with championships on the line. Rashaad Penny will be a top ten running back in Week 17.
Jesse: Fiction
While I like Rashaad Penny in this matchup, expecting him to finish inside the top-10 RB is too bullish for my liking. Since Penny’s return in Week 13, he sees a 40%+ snap share, and he has accumulated 54% of the opportunities in the Seattle backfield. If that number were a season-long total for Penny, it would rank Penny 27th in the NFL in opportunity share.
The problems the Seahawks have had at sustaining drives and producing points means that the running back would need to be hyper-efficient if he is not maintaining significant volume week in and out. On top of that, Penny has only received five total targets over the last four weeks. Without passing game involvement, Penny is a stable play this week as an RB2/RB3. I do not see the top-10 fantasy football upside unless Penny hits paydirt even against the Lions defense. Seattle is currently 20th in PPG and 15th in rushing touchdowns/game. I will take the under this week for Penny.
Sony Michel over 15 PPR points Week 17
Joe: Fact
With the news of Darrell Henderson going on injured reserve, its wheels up for Sony Michael. Miraculously, Cam Akers has the chance to return against Baltimore, but I would expect Michel to still handle the bulk of the load.
The matchup is tough this week however for Michel. Baltimore is ranked first in the NFL allowing only 85.6 rushing yards per game. Teams have been able to throw consistently on the Ravens, rather than run against them. Volume is king, however, and Sony is seeing elite volume currently.
Michel is averaging 23.75 touches since taking over the lead reigns the last four weeks. Sony is averaging 15.95 points per game during that stretch. It might be a little bit of a grind, but Sony Michel will reach or exceed 15 PPR points in Week 17.
Jesse: Fiction
Like all games, it comes down to the matchup. The backend of Baltimore’s defense is currently in a world of hurt. The secondary is full of names NFL fans have no idea who they are. Is this room supposed to cover Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham, and Van Jefferson?
Stafford and company will exploit the weakness of the Ravens defense, which is the secondary. The run defense is top five in rushing yards allowed and yards per carry. It is a strength of this Baltimore group. This week, Sony Michel is a fantasy football fade for me. I expect McVay to plan the game plan around Stafford, as he will light up the scoreboard. Michel will be the one who suffers the most, as Stafford and Kupp will have a monster day.
Kyler Murray outscores Dak Prescott Week 17
Joe: Fiction
It’s a battle of the elites at the quarterback position when Kyler Murray and the Cardinals travel to Jerry World to face Dak Prescott and the Cowboys. Both quarterbacks came into last week struggling for their standards but both bounced back with fantasy football QB1 finishes in Week 16.
Dallas has turned up the volume against quarterbacks over the past month allowing only 158 passing yards per game over their last three outings. While they haven’t faced quarterbacks like Murray, the Cowboys are a confident group right now that’s caused 10 interceptions in the last four games.
The game features the highest over-under of the Week 17 slate. Both Prescott and Murray should end up as high-end fantasy football quarterbacks this week, but I’m going to give the slight edge to Dak at home.
Jesse: Fact
It is an intriguing matchup between two of the top fantasy football quarterbacks in the NFL. Unfortunately, Kyler and Dak are also going against two of the best defenses in the league. Dallas and Arizona are top-5 in total EPA and EPA/Dropback. I am not expecting either quarterback to be on fire through the air, as it should be a good contest that will come down to the 4th quarter.
I give Kyler the edge in this matchup with his scrambling ability. Since returning from an ankle injury in Week 13, Kyler is outscoring Dak by over 4 fantasy points/game. That is due to the massive edge Kyler has as a mobile quarterback. It raises the floor and the ceiling for Kyler. Look for Kyler to use his athleticism to help break down the Cowboys vaunted defense this week and create opportunities for big plays.
Week 17 Championship Sleeper
Joe: Devin Singletary RB Buffalo Bills
I don’t think many can claim they saw Devin Singletary being a factor during the fantasy football playoffs, but here we are. Singletary is averaging 16.7 points per game from Weeks 14 through 16. Up next is an Atlanta team at home allowing 26 points per game to running backs. Fantasy football managers may be able to ride the hot hand Singletary is delivering all the way to a championship.
Jesse: Elijah Mitchell
It’s perfect that both our picks project for exactly 12.5 fantasy points on Sleeper. Due to the circumstances, both of our selections would be a surprise if they finished inside the top-15 RB. I have faith in Mitchell, even though he is coming off a knee injury. San Fransisco showed us with Deebo that they will not limit a player’s usage if he is available to perform. If Mitchell plays this week, the matchup is great for him. Mitchell will receive the bulk of the work against a Texans defense that cannot stop opposing running backs this year.
Additionally, we have Trey Lance taking over for an injured Jimmy Garrapolo. The coaching staff will want to rely on the running game and not pressure Lance in his first NFL start. I anticipate Mitchell seeing 20+ opportunities in this game and ending up with over 100 yards and a touchdown on the day. If Mitchell cannot go, my Championship Sleeper is Darrel Williams.
