Jesse Moeller and Joe O’Leary are back with another edition of Fact or Fiction for Week 4. The guys look into four important fantasy football topics, and each presents their case.
It’s time for Fact or Fiction.
Jonathan Taylor will still be a Top-15 running back this year
Joe: Fact
There is no denying things aren’t looking great for Jonathan Taylor right now. He’s been under 20 total touches in two straight weeks, and the production isn’t there right now. I’m not in full panic mode yet, though. Looking ahead at his schedule, Weeks 4-10 show a lot of green (plus matchups) versus teams who are struggling against running backs.
The Colts are 0-3 and desperate against Miami this week. I expect Frank Reich to lean on his stud running back. Look for JT to get back on track this week versus a Dolphins team that just got shredded by Peyton Barber. Taylor will be ok in the long run and finish top-15 in fantasy football.
Jesse: Fiction
What felt like an obvious yes before the season started, is something we should question for the rest of the year. This season has gone against Taylor and the Indianapolis offense in the early weeks. Another injury to both quarterback Carson Wentz and all-world lineman Quenton Nelson only hurts Taylor’s season-long outlook. As a result, Taylor is not the sure-fire asset he seemed in the preseason.
Taylor ranks outside the Top-20 RBs in the following statistics: Snap Share, Opportunity Share, Route Participation, Target Share, True Yards Per Carry, Yards Per Touch, Breakaway Runs, and Run Blocking Efficiency.
Boil all the statistics down, and the problems for Taylor are two-fold. First, Nyheim Hines is disintegrating Taylor’s passing-game usage, and second, the inefficiency of the Colts offensive line. Taylor’s underlying numbers have been among the best in the NFL, and yet it has not made a difference for him in fantasy football. Until those issues are solved, Taylor will finish outside the top-15 RB for the rest of the season.
DeAndre Hopkins outscores Allen Robinson in Week 4
Joe: Fiction
Going on a little bit of a limb here with Allen Robinson, as he and the Bears offense are not looking sharp to start the season. This feels like a get-right game for me with Robinson. It’s tough to keep one of the best wide receivers in the game down for too long, no matter who is playing quarterback. DeAndre Hopkins managed only 12 receptions for 87 yards and a score in two showdowns with Jalen Ramsey and the Rams last year. It doesn’t feel great, but I’ll side with Robinson this week getting back on track versus the Lions at home.
Jesse: Fiction
These two have been two of the best wide receivers in the league in the past decade. Both are known as ‘quarterback proof’, producing WR1 numbers with signal-callers such as Tom Savage, Case Keenum, Blake Bortles, Chad Henne, etc.
Given how bad Robinson has been early on, that theory is on shaky ground. It would seem like a smash vote for DeAndre Hopkins. The problem for Hopkins is a rib injury that limited him in Week 3, and a matchup with the best defense and cornerback in the league (Los Angeles Rams) in Week 4. Robinson is going up against the Lions, who have already lost Jeff Okudah for the season.
If the line can give Bears QB Justin Fields time to throw, Robinson should smash in this matchup that saw Deebo Samuel and Davante Adams average ten receptions for 168 yards in the first two weeks. It may not sound appealing, but start Robinson with confidence and leave Hopkins on the bench in Week 4.
Michael Pittman over 4.5 receptions Week 4 versus the Dolphins
Joe: Fact
Michael Pittman certainly isn’t a star, but he’s undoubtedly the Colt’s best receiver right now. Pittman has caught the eye of Carson Wentz the last two weeks, with 24 total targets hauling in 14 receptions. Pittman has a relatively safe matchup this week versus the Dolphins. TY Hilton’s out, Parris Campbell has struggled mightily, and while Zach Pascal has been a bright spot, he’s been living off touchdown production. Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard struggled last week against Hunter Renfrow and Henry Ruggs. This may be close, but I like Michael Pittman to see the most targets once again this week and be above 4.5 receptions.
Jesse: Fiction
Given Indianapolis’s struggles passing the ball, this prop gave me some pause. I do not trust Pittman going up against the Dolphins duo of Xavien Howard and Byron Jones in Week 4. The Dolphins possess one of the top corner duos in the league and should give the Colts all the problems it can handle in this matchup.
The line needs to protect Wentz, as the injuries to his feet have taken away one of his strengths; his ability to move in the pocket and create time for his wide receivers. Pittman has seen a heavy share of the targets early on, but I expect the running backs to guide the Colts in this matchup. The Dolphins are near the league’s bottom in fantasyfootball points allowed to running backs through three weeks. Taylor and Hines will lead the attack in this matchup. Bench Pittman on your fantasy football teams this week.
Dak Prescott will be a Top-5 quarterback in Week 4 versus the Panthers
Joe: Fiction
Dak Prescott has been good so far this season, coming off his season-ending injury in 2020. This week he gets the resurgent Carolina Panthers and their stingy defense. It’s still debatable if the Panther’s defensive unit is for real, considering they have faced the likes of Zach Wilson, Jameis Winston, and Davis Mills to start the season. I like Dak to perform well this week, but I think he falls a little short of Top-5 production at the position considering other quarterbacks who are in better spots.
Jesse: Fact
This matchup is the reverse of last week’s game against the Eagles. The Panthers’ strength is its interior, as the Cowboys will not run all over the Panthers in Week 4. Expect OC Kellen Moore to lean on Dak in this matchup and have him throw 40+ times. The Panthers are down one corner for the year in Jaycee Horn, and have just traded for another in C.J. Henderson, who will have some growing pains adjusting the defensive system in Carolina. This week, I expect Dak to push for the overall QB1 slot in fantasy football, and I have confidence in all the Cowboys pass-catchers. Have no fear in starting Dak. He will thrive and put up extraordinary numbers.
