Staff members Jesse Moeller and Joe O’Leary take you through four important fantasy football topics this week, and each presents their case.
It’s time for fact or fiction.
Calvin Ridley will still be a PPR WR1 (Top-12) this season
Joe: Fact
It’s been a bit of a slow start for Calvin Ridley in 2021. He’s currently WR23 on the season. I don’t think it’s time to hit the panic button just yet. Ridley is seeing incredible volume, averaging 10.5 targets per game. He’s averaging 14.6 PPR points per game on the season as well. The touchdowns should come. Don’t be surprised if we get a few explosion games from Ridley soon. I’m going to be patient with him; the numbers suggest it’s coming sooner rather than later.
Jesse: Fact
Yes, Calvin Ridley is still a top-12 WR in fantasy football. The underlying numbers suggest Ridley sees elite usage. The problem has been the inability to translate it to fantasy success. Matt Ryan has taken a step back, and it has played a role in Ridley’s lack of success this year. The second issue is how the offense has changed under first-year head coach Arthur Smith. Matt Ryan’s Yards per Attempt have dropped from 8.4 in 2020, to 6.1 in 2021. Again, showing how involved Smith wants the RB to be. Not something the Falcons have focused on in the past. Even with the change, Ridley is top five in the following statistics: Targets, Routes Run, Air Yards Share, Red Zone Targets, Unrealized Air yards. You can confidently lock Ridley into your top-12 fantasy WR.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire over 15 PPR points versus the Bills
Joe: Fiction
After many left CEH for dead through two weeks, he emerged with two straight 100-yard rushing efforts and back-to-back solid weeks (16.9 and 19.4 PPR points). This week he faces a true test with the Buffalo Bills defense. The Bills have managed to curtail the running game so far this season, limiting Najee Harris, Myles Gaskin, and Antonio Gibson on the ground If CEH is going to continue his resurgence, he’s going to have to do it in all phases on Sunday night. He only has eight targets through four games. He will need to see that number improve. I’m going under 15 PPR fantasy points for Clyde Edwards-Helaire this week.
Jesse: Fact
While this matchup may seem daunting given how great Buffalo has been, it helps to take a step back and look at the schedule the Bills have played in the first four matchups. Games against Pittsburgh, Miami, Washington, and Houston paint a different picture. Enter Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas Chiefs in Week 5, and that is an entirely different story. CEH has seen light fronts on 72% of his carries this season, as teams are begging Kansas City to run the ball against them. The game has the highest projected point total, and as a result, I’m expected CEH to find paydirt and hit the over on his projection.
Dalvin Cook over 22.4 PPR points (Sleeper Projection)
Joe: Fact
22.4 points is a steep number for anybody. Dalvin Cook has failed to reach that number in any of the three games he’s played this season. His faces the Lions this week, who have been shredded by their opponent’s top backs in 2021. The Ravens were the only team the Lions have faced that didn’t have a running back finish inside the top-15. Elijah Mitchell, Aaron Jones, and David Montgomery all did. Cook has been a little quiet for his standards to begin the season. Let’s get a little risky and take the over of 22.4 points for Dalvin Cook this week in a smash spot at home versus the Lions.
Jesse: Fiction
This is a dream matchup for Cook as he goes against the woeful Lions defense. A team that ranks dead last in fantasy football points allowed to running backs. My issue with Cook this week has to deal with health, which has been a nagging concern for the player throughout his career. Cook saw a 49% snap share and accumulated a season-low 11 touches in Week 4 as he was dealing with the ankle injury. I anticipate the Vikings to ease him back in Week 5, having Cook share the workload with Mattison. Therefore, I will take the under on the projections for Cook.
Josh Allen is a Top-5 quarterback this week
Joe: Fact
I’m going fact, even though Josh Allen has had only one top-five finish to start the season. It’s not easy to replicate what Allen did last year. He was simply phenomenal. He’s been solid to start the year, accounting for ten total touchdowns to only two interceptions. The scoreboard should be jumping on Sunday night in this AFC Championship rematch, featuring the highest over-under on the slate this week. The Chiefs have been susceptible to mobile quarterbacks, giving up two top-five finishes to Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. With revenge on his mind, a motivated Josh Allen will remind us why he was a top pick in fantasy football SuperFlex drafts this summer.
Jesse: Fiction
This prop is a tough one to pick, as I like quite a few quarterbacks for fantasy this week. To name a few other options, Lamar, Brady, Kyler, Dak, Jones, Stafford, and Cousins will smash this week in their fantasy football matchups. Unfortunately, there is no guarantee to finishas a top-5 fantasy QB this week, no matter how great a quarterback Allen is. I am going against the grain and picking Allen to finish outside of the top-5. I anticipate this game will have points galore as it’s the highest projected total. Zack Moss will find his way into the endzone, keeping Josh Allen outside of the top five.
