Jesse Moeller and Joe O’Leary are back to discuss four crucial fantasy football topics. Both will take their stance and present their case topic by topic.
It’s fact or fiction time once again.
Nick Chubb will be a top-8 running back in week eight
Joe: Fact
Nick Chubb returns at the perfect time for the Browns, as they face the Steelers in a matchup with significant ramifications on the line. With Kareem Hunt sidelined, we finally will get the rare glimpse of seeing Nick Chubb in a featured every-down role. The Steelers defense overall has been pretty decent against RBs this year, but are giving up 127 yards per game over their last three outings. With the likelihood of Chubb seeing increased work through the air, I like him to be a top-eight running back this week.
Jesse: Fiction
Could this be the week where we finally see Nick Chubb fully unlocked? I sure hope that it is. The talent is there for Chubb to be one of the greatest fantasy football runnings back in the NFL. Every week, Chubb is a problem with the ball in his hands for NFL defenses, as his rushing ability behind the Cleveland line is on full display. It has never been a talent issue for Chubb, but how the Browns use him, which holds him back.
The lack of receiving work limits Chubb’s ceiling. Look at Najee Harris’ projected points this week to see how important it is. Harris gets all the valuable touches, making it easier to finish above Chubb each week while being less efficient.
Now, there will be the occasional week where Chubb goes 21 attempts for 161 yards and a touchdown. That was in Week 5, where he had 24 fantasy points and was the RB9. On the season, Chubb is currently the RB14 in PPG. In a matchup against Pittsburgh, one of the best fantasy defenses against running backs, I expect Chubb to be mid-RB2 in week
Kenneth Gainwell over 15 PPR Points versus the Lions
Joe: Fact
With Miles Sanders likely out a few weeks, opportunity knocks for impressive rookie running back Kenneth Gainwell. The matchup versus the Lions is a juicy one to boot. The Lions give up 120 rushing yards per game. The Eagles will rotate Boston Scott into the game. There’s a possibility Jordan Howard could even steal some goal-line work, but for the most part, I expect Gainwell to handle the lion’s share of the work and high quality touches. In PPR formats, I like Kenneth Gainwell to meet 15 points or better this week versus the lowly Lions.
Jesse: Fiction
This one is exceptionally tricky, as Gainwell was just about the top receiving back in this rookie class for fantasy football analysts. In the wake of Miles Sanders’ injury, Gainwell saw season-high in snaps, routes, and targets. The game script played out perfectly for Gainwell to be heavily involved, as Philadelphia was behind early versus Las Vegas. While Gainwell can be a middling RB2 in the weeks that Sanders is out, I have some issue in this matchup. I do not see the Eagles falling behind and being in the negative game script due to the problems the Lions have.
While the Lions are one of the best fantasy football matchups for running backs, most damage occurs on the ground against Detroit. They are bottom-10 in rushing attempts, yards, and touchdowns allowed to running backs. I would expect Boston Scott to see some work on the ground and cut into the performance of Gainwell. In Week 7, Scott received three times more RedZone rushes than Gainwell.
Aaron Rodgers will be a top-12 quarterback this week against the Cardinals
Joe: Fiction
It’s going to be an uphill battle for Aaron Rodgers when he faces the 7-0 Cardinals on a short week without Davante Adams and Allen Lazard. We’ve seen Rodgers pull many a rabbit out of his hat over his Hall Of Fame career, but there may be too many obstacles to face this week. The Packers may try to keep Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense off the field by using the running game of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. The Cardinals have given up only one top-12 quarterback performance this year. I don’t expect that to change this week, either. Aaron Rodgers will finish outside QB1 range in fantasy football versus the Cardinals.
Jesse: Fiction
As I stated in my five weekly fades article earlier this week, I am fading Rodgers in Week 8. Going up against Arizona on a short week without Adams, Lazard, and possibly MVS handicaps Rodgers in this matchup. If there is a quarterback who can carry lesser talent, it would be Rodgers, though. He’s one of the greatest quarterbacks this league has ever seen. Rodgers can spread the ball around to Jones, Tonyan, Cobb, Rodgers, and others. It just becomes more difficult on a short week, having to rely on inferior players.
If the matchup were not as challenging, I would be less worried than I am. Here are some stats to highlight just how good Arizona’s defense has been through seven weeks:
- 2nd in Net Yards Per Pass with 5.5. The NFL Average is 6.6.
- 4th in percentage of drives ending in a turnover, at 20%. The NFL Average is 11%.
- 1st in percentage of drives ending in score, at 24%. NFL Average is 38.6%.
- 2nd in Expected Points Added with 41.10. NFL Average is -35.7.
Antonio Gibson is a top-10 dynasty running back
Joe: Fiction
I’m a huge Antonio Gibson believer, but until his usage begins to change, this is fiction for me. According to Dynasty League Football, Gibson is RB9 ahead of Ezekiel Elliott, Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones, and Javonte Williams. It’s hard to justify Gibson ranked over some of the players mentioned there.
While I believe in the talent and still like his overall dynasty outlook, it’s hard to justify Antonio Gibson being a top-10 dynasty running back right now. Savvy fantasy football managers will look at this as a buying opportunity. If Gibson’s price has come down, he could provide some value in trades.
Jesse: Fact
The fantasy football community got out in front over its skis this offseason with talk of Antonio Gibson possibly being the 2022 1.01 pick in dynasty drafts. That talk never made sense and does not look great in hindsight. What the community did get right was pushing up a player with the level of talent Gibson possesses. Few players in the NFL have the size-speed combination that Gibson does at the running back position. Gibson has been a disappointment for most though, despite currently being the RB15 in PPR leagues. On a PPG basis, Gibson is RB21.
While injuries and lack of involvement in the passing game have put a damper on Gibson’s 2021, he seems the ideal running back to target for teams not contending this year. In 2022 McKissic will be a free agent, and Gibson will come in fully healthy as the lead back. I will pay the price to acquire him and expect improved production following this season. Gibson is very much a long-term asset.
