Jesse Moeller and Joe O’Leary are back once again with Fact or Fiction. The guys take on four fantasy football topics each week and present their case for or against.
Let’s get to it, League Winners!
Tua Tagovailoa will be Top-15 QB or better this week against Houston
Joe: Fact
Fact. Tua Tagovailoa has one of the better matchups of the week at home against the Texans. Houston has been blitzed by opposing quarterbacks the last three weeks, giving up a total of eight touchdowns through the air. The Texans have allowed a top-15 or better quarterback performance in six of eight games in 2021. The Dolphins struggle running the ball, so Tua will have to provide scoring opportunities on his own. I’ll give Tua three scores this week, which should easily provide top-15 quarterback or better numbers in week nine.
Jesse: Fact
This week, I am all in on Tua, as he gets the lowly Texans defense following his overall QB1 performance in Week 8. For reference, here is a list of quarterbacks to finish QB15 or higher this year against the Texans.
- Week 8: Stafford 21/32 305 Yards 3 TD. 24.2 Points QB6
- Week 7: Kyler 20/28 261 Yards 3 TD. 22.44 Points QB8
- Week 6: Wentz 11/20 223 Yards 3 TD. 17.02 Points QB14
- Week 4: Allen 20/29 248 Yards 2 TD. 20.02 Points QB15
- Week 3: Darnold 23/34 304 Yards 2 Rushing TD. 23.26 Points QB9
- Week 1: Lawerence 28/51 332 Yards 3 TD. 22.08 Points QB12
In six of eight games, a quarterback has finished QB15 or higher in fantasy football against the Texan’s defense. That’s a 75% success rate on the season. Unfortunately, Houston will not get better in Week 9, as the Texans have surrendered a score on 47.2% of defensive possessions. Additionally, they are only pressuring quarterbacks on 19.3% of dropbacks. Thus, Tua will carve up the Texan’s defense in Week 9.
Tyreek Hill scores more than Davante Adams in PPR week nine
Joe: Fact
It’s never easy going against Tyreek Hill, but give me Davante Adams this week. Hill is coming off an insane 18 targets last week versus the Giants, while Adams had to miss the matchup with the Cardinals because he was on the Covid-19 list.
Before missing last week, Adams only saw 12 total targets in the previous two games. With the loss of Robert Tonyan, I expect Aaron Rodgers to rely heavily on his primary weapon in this showdown. If Adams maintains anything near his 33.8 percent target share on the season it’s wheels up for Davante in a matchup where the Packers will have to keep pace with the Chiefs. The best wide receiver in football is itching to get back into action, and I think we get an explosion Davante Adams outing this week.
While I except both of these star wide receivers to produce high-end numbers this week, give me Davante Adams over Tyreek Hill for week nine.
*Update*
Reportedly, Aaron Rodgers has been placed on the COVID-19 list and will not play this week. This changes things dramatically for Davante Adams’ Week 9 outlook. While Jordan Love could latch onto Adams more having less experience, it’s a dicey gamble to still have Davante edging out Tyreek Hill this week. With the news coming in, I will be forced to go fact.
Jesse: Fact
A difficult choice, as you could go either way in this matchup. First, Let me tell you why I am choosing Tyreek over Davante in this game. Tyreek & Adams are 1st and 2nd in Targets/Game, with Tyreek leading Adams 11.3 to 10.4. The players are even in fantasy points per target with 1.98, which is pretty wild when you think about it. Adams leads in target share 33.8% to 28.1%. It would seem a wash between them, so what separates the two elite wide receivers for me is how they play offensively.
We are eight weeks into the season, so we have a sizeable sample to pull from on the year. Kansas City plays at a faster pace and passes at a higher rate than Green Bay. The Chiefs have passed the ball 76 more times through the first eight weeks; broken down is almost ten more pass attempts each week. This more than makes up for the advantage Adams has in Target Share. Tyreek is 1st in Targets, Receptions, and 2nd in Air Yards. Lastly, The Packers shutdown corner Jaire Alexander is still recovering from a shoulder injury, so he is not speculated to play in the matchup. Expect both players will put on a show Sunday. I envision Hill coming out on top.
Elijah Mitchell continues his 100-yard rushing streak
Joe: Fiction
I’ll tentatively go fiction here on whether or not Elijah Mitchell will run for over 100 yards for the third straight game. Mitchell was solid the first time out versus the Cardinals, running for 43 yards on nine carries. Trey Lance started that game, so it capped his rushing ceiling.
The Cardinals are 20th in the league, giving up 120.1 rushing yards per game. They’ve only given up one 100-yard rushing effort, however, on the season (Dalvin Cook) limiting Derrick Henry, Kareem Hunt, James Robinson, Darrell Henderson, and Aaron Jones. This isn’t a matchup to fear for Mitchell, but I will be conservative and say he finishes with a solid outing yet below the 100-yard mark.
Jesse: Fiction
Elijah Mitchell is intriguing, as he has worked his way into fantasy football managers’ starting lineups with his performance. However, Mitchell lacks fantasy value in the receiving game, as he is a zero in that department. In Weeks 6-7, where Mitchell solidified his role for the rest of the season, he had zero combined targets. Mitchell is similar to Damien Harris in New England; a player that will put up good numbers on the ground but is a floor play more than a ceiling play due to the nonexistent passing work.
Going up against Arizona as an underdog means that San Francisco will be unable to lean heavily on Mitchell in the second half. In Week 5, San Fransisco had 11 rushing attempts for 50 yards from its running backs against Arizona. I have a hard time seeing San Fransisco hit over 100 yards on the ground from the running backs, let alone Mitchell.
Adrian Peterson will be a flex worthy option during Derrick Henry’s absence
Joe: Fact
The Titans brought in veteran Adrian Peterson following the news that Derrick Henry would be out for 6-10 weeks. The Titan’s backfield is extremely thin sans Henry, with Jeremy Mcnichols and D’onta Foreman (also just signed to the team). It may take a week for Peterson to settle into his new role, but I think he eventually takes over the lion’s share of the early-down work.
Nobody can replace what Henry provides the Titans, but Adrian Peterson can give them some stability. While I don’t expect much receiving work from Peterson, he should see decent volume and goal-line duties. With injuries and bye week dilemmas, it’s not all that difficult to provide back-end RB2/high-end RB3 numbers in fantasy football. I expect AP to be someone you can trust in your flex in a pinch.
Jesse: Fiction
I saw a clip posted of Peterson three years ago taking a handoff to the house for a long touchdown run. Do you remember who was the consensus RB1 in fantasy football at the time? Todd Gurley, as he was in the midst of a legendary first half that year before those knees caught up to him.
A lot can change in three years for a running back. Saquon Barkley was still a rookie who had not been hit with the injury bug. I could go on forever about the difference three years make for a running back. Especially one with the wear and tear that Peterson has. Peterson is 36 years old and is 9th all-time in touches. Peterson needs to learn the system before Tennessee can confidently make him the lead back.
The first running back to earn those touches will be Jeremy McNichols. He is in his second year with Tennessee and knows the program. Peterson will ramp up and have a role but no longer can do what Derrick Henry does at this stage of his career. McNichols is the running back I want in Tennessee until I see otherwise. He will also have the pass-catching and third-down role in Tennesse to himself. McNichols is the upside play, where Peterson is the floor play. I want the upside and do not see Peterson being productive enough to be a flex play in fantasy football.
