Sometimes, teams get a huge haul with a draft trade but it doesn’t always work out. Fantasy football can be very similar, so let’s dive in and take a look at some past trades.
The NFL Draft is almost here and fantasy football players are rejoicing. Soon find out what players will be picked by which teams. But before that, there is always a question: Do you stay where your pick is, trade down, or trade up?
Sometimes, even though a team receives what looks like a haul of draft picks, they do not come out as winners. If a team can’t evaluate talent successfully then it doesn’t matter how many drafts picks they get. Let’s take a look at some major 1st Round trades the last 10 years.
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Three Massive 1st Round Trades
Julio Jones Trade Between Browns & Falcons
Falcons Receive: Pick No 6 2011 NFL Draft
Players acquired using traded picks from Browns
Browns Receive: Pick 26, 59, 124 in 2011 NFL Draft and Pick 22, 118 in 2012 NFL Draft
Players acquired using traded picks from Falcons
- Phil Tayor, DT Baylor
- Greg Little, WR North Carolina
- Owen Marecic, FB Stanford
- Brandon Weeden, QB Oklahoma St
In this trade, the Falcons received one of the top receivers in the NFL for the last 10 years. The Browns selected Phil Taylor, who was on the all-rookie team in 2011 but battled injuries. Ultimately, he was not worth a 1st round selection. The others were underwhelming as well: Little had a catch rate of under 50%, Marecic only was in the NFL for 2 years, and Weeden never lived up to the billing of a 1st round pick.
The Browns wasted all those picks and would have been better served to stay at their original place and draft the player that everyone said was can’t miss. Winner Falcons.
RGIII Trade Between WFT and Rams
WFT Receive: Pick 2 2012 NFL Draft
Players acquired using traded picks from Rams
Rams Receive: Pick 6,39 in 2012 NFL Draft; Pick 22 2013 NFL Draft; Pick 2 2014 NFL Draft
Players acquired using traded picks from Washington
- Michael Brockers, DE LSU
- Janoris Jenkins, CB North Alabama
- Isaiah Pead, RB Cincinnati
- Rokevious Watkins, G South Carolina
- Alec Ogletree, LB Georgia
- Stedman Bailey, WR West Virginia
- Zac Stacy, RB Vanderbilt
- Greg Robinson, T Auburn
Washington gave up three 1st rounders and a 2nd round pick to go up and get what they thought was their franchise QB for many years to come. After his rookie year, it looked as if the gamble might have been worth it. RG3 was rookie of the year and made the pro bowl.
Unfortunately, RG3 would get injured in the playoffs and was never the same; so that feeling of a franchise QB only lasted for a year. The trade resulted in eight players selected by the Rams, and three are still starters in the NFL. While they are not currently with the Rams going into 2021, Brockers, Ogletree, and Jenkins all had productive careers and were on the all the all-rookie team for the Rams.
While the Rams had some misses, they made the right decision. Enough of the players selected ‘hit’ to win the trade. The injury to RG3 obviously affected this, but every team takes that risk when drafting a player. Winner Rams.
Jared Goff Trade Between Rams and Titans
Rams Receive: Pick 1, 113, 177 in 2016 NFL Draft
Players acquired using traded picks from Titans
- Jared Goff, QB California
- Pharoah Cooper, WR South Carolina
- Temarrick Hemingway, TE SC St
- Mike Thomas, WR Southern Miss
Titans Receive: 15, 43, 45, 76 in 2016 NFL Draft and Pick 5,100 in 2017 NFL Draft
Players acquired using traded picks from Rams
- Jack Conlin, G Mich St
- Austin Johnson, DT Penn St
- Derrick Henry, RB Alabama
- LeShaun Sims, CB Southern Utah
- Kalan Reed, CB Southern Miss
- Corey Davis, WR Western Michigan
- Jonnu Smith, TE Florida International
As previously mentioned the Rams received a haul for a team to select a quarterback. This time it was them who were moving up to get their franchise QB. Although Jared Goff led the Rams to the Super Bowl and made the pro bowl in 2017 and 2018, they have already moved on from him going into 2021.
The other pieces the Rams received did very little for the team. The Titans ended up selecting seven players from that trade. They had a few misses, but did very well overall with their selections. Henry has turned into one of the best RBs in the NFL, Conklin was a 1st team All-Pro on the Titans, while Smith/Davis just left the team in the offseason (but were productive starters for them).
This trade is probably the closest since Goff lead the Rams to a Super Bowl, and gave them four years as a good starter. Derrick Henry proved to be a great pick for the Titans, but has not been able to carry the team to a Super Bowl birth. Davis came on in his last year in Tennessee but was underwhelming overall, not providing the go-to receiver they hoped. Winner Rams.
Looking at these previous trades, it looks as if two teams ‘won’ by trading up and one team by trading back. Even with hindsight, moving back is always a risk and nothing is guaranteed. These types of trades can ruin a team or a franchise. So what does this have to do with fantasy football then?
Fantasy Football Implications
For Dynasty Leagues, players get to act as GMs and make trades of players and future rookie draft picks. Some owners look for building with vets to win now while others take younger players for the long haul.
Last year, I was in a Startup Dynasty SF TE Premium league and made the choice to go all-in on rookies in 2020 and 2021. I only had one player through the first 10 rounds of the startup. The result is still ongoing as I have 11 rookie picks for 2021, but last year I ended up finishing; winning only 2 out of 14 games.
Below are the results, and as you can see not many players contributed during their rookie year. Two players that could have made a difference were my first two picks, where I could have had Brandon Aiyuk and Michael Pittman Jr. The stats below were found via fantasydata.
Obviously, this is just a one-year look at the players I drafted. But a couple of players already look like they will not have much fantasy football value going forward.
Having rookie fever in fantasy football is somewhat like trading down for multiple picks in the real NFL Draft. You can bank on yourself as an evaluator and trade known commodities for future picks. There is nothing wrong with being excited about rookies in fantasy, but be cautious. If I had a choice, I am not sure I would play out the startup as I did last year.
Brandon Haye
Brandon grew up in Jacksonville, Florida and works as a health insurance data analyst. He has no children, but two fur babies - Squirt and Brownie. He and his wife, Katie, spend their time playing poker and enjoying time with their pups. Brandon is a huge Michigan Wolverine and Jacksonville Jaguars fan. He at one time was in 77 fantasy leagues and loves the game of football. Brandon started writing for The Leauge Winners in 2021.