Congratulations! You have made it to the championship round of your fantasy football league. Only a select few make it to this point in the season. It is up to you to set the optimal lineup for your team.
Are you a heavy favorite? Go ahead and pick the safer floor play that will not lose you the title. Are you a massive underdog? Take the chance on an upside play to try and win your matchup. Each week is different, depending on your overall team talent, but I want every one of you to take home the title this week.
Make sure whoever you start that you are comfortable with the choice you made. If you are afraid to bench a player go ahead and stick them in your lineup. I hope these recommendations help you win the championship this week. Good luck on winning that fantasy football title.
QB: Joe Burrow Under 20.94 Projected Fantasy Points
.@minakimes would take Justin Herbert over Joe Burrow 🗣
“I’d take Herbert [over Burrow]. … I think some of the Joe Burrow takes floating around are a little bit prisoner of the moment failing to account for competition." pic.twitter.com/EJyKdeQtnF
— First Take (@FirstTake) December 28, 2021
Joe Burrow carved up a wounded Raven defense last week to the tune of 525 yards and 4 touchdowns. It was a sight to see, as Burrow could do no wrong in Week 16. In Week 17, Burrow gets to face a Kansas City defense that is a massive improvement over what the Ravens lined up in Week 16.
Here is a stat that caught my attention. This season, Burrow averages 32.87 Fantasy Points/Game in games versus the Ravens. Versus the rest of the NFL, Burrow is averaging 17.12 Fantasy Points/Game. That is a monumental difference. If Burrow averaged 17.12 PPG, he would fall outside the top-12 fantasy football quarterbacks this year.
Burrow seems to have the Ravens number this year. Against the rest of the NFL, it has yet to be determined. Add in that Kansas City is one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL, and I could expect the Bengals trying to get Mixon involved early and often.
RB: Josh Jacobs Under 17.33 Projected Fantasy Points
Josh Jacobs' managers watching Peyton Barber vulture TDs pic.twitter.com/0TfgfjLiex
— FantasyLabs NFL (@FantasyLabsNFL) December 26, 2021
The Colts defense has taken a step forward to close out the season against running backs. They have allowed 46 yards/game and 3.18 yards/carry in the last three weeks. Two of those games were against the Patriots and Cardinals, and they are some of the better running teams in the NFL.
Unfortunately, the Raiders can not pound Josh Jacobs for 27 attempts as they did last week against the Broncos. The Colts are a heavy favorite and should control the game, forcing the Raiders to move away from Jacobs in this matchup. Jacobs has improved his pass game involvement, but he is a floor play this week. In a fantasy football championship match, that is not someone I am interested in playing.
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 15.27 Projected Fantasy Points
D’Andre Swift hasn’t played a full game since week 11 and is still the RB15 in PPR leagues. Easy top 10 pick next year
— mikey (@mikeycannavo) December 28, 2021
This one is a combination of things happening to suppress a player. The Seahawks are good at preventing fantasy football points to wide receivers. However, the Seahawks also are one of the worst at giving up fantasy production to running backs. Only the Jets are worse than Seattle.
Do you know who is on his way back this week? That’s right, the PPR Gawd himself, D’Andre Swift. Before the Swift injury in Week 12, St. Brown’s season-high targets in a game were 8. With Swift out, St. Brown has seen no less than 11+ targets in each game. I expect Swift to eat into the Sun God’s role this week.
TE: Dalton Schultz Under 12.39 Projected Fantasy Points
*Dalton Schultz single-handedly getting me to the fantasy football championship* pic.twitter.com/uc7dJVGb4n
— Hannah Kirkell (@h_kirk6) December 27, 2021
The Cardinals are dominant against tight ends this season. It is reaching the point that when tight ends are playing the Cardinals, they are an automatic fade in fantasy football. They have completely shut them down this season. Tight ends have averaged three catches for 34 yards/game.
Add in that tight ends have yet to score a touchdown this season versus Arizona, and I am weary about Schultz this week. Dalton Schultz has been a key contributor this season, but I am fading him this week. Amari Cooper finally took a step forward last week and looked like his old self, so I would look towards streaming other options this week.
Flex: Sony Michel Under 14.82 Projected Fantasy Points
NFL's leading rushers during the month of December:
1. Sony Michel, 423 yards
2. Jonathan Taylor, 421 yardsSony has quietly been the glue for the @RamsNFL offense down the stretch. @gmfb
— Peter Schrager (@PSchrags) December 28, 2021
Sony Michel has been a late-season hero to fantasy football teams that held on or grabbed him on the waiver wire this year. I expect Los Angeles to take advantage of the Ravens porous pass defense in the matchup and carve them up.
The front seven has been the bedrock for the Ravens defense, as they have fared well against the run. Sony will get his share of work in this game, but the primary damage will be done through the air. It will be a big game for Stafford and his receivers. Expect a passing game barrage against this Ravens defense on Sunday. Although Michel could still reach double digits, I do not see him besting that projection in this matchup.