Week four is in the books, and we had some new names dominate the leaderboard. Certain superstars carried fantasy football teams; Tyreek Hill, D.J. Moore, Saquon Barkley, and Austin Ekeler went above and beyond expectations. However, as Cordarelle Patterson, Kenny Gainwell, C.J. Uzomah, and Van Jefferson showed, you made an excellent call for your team if you started them.
As we look forward to week five, I have five names I am fading. I do not see them living up to the PPR projections Sleeper has listed for them.
QB: Baker Mayfield Under 18.1 Fantasy Points
Baker Mayfield has yet to score 18 fantasy points in a game this season. His projection for Week 5 would be a season-high. His reward is the Los Angeles Chargers, coming off a dominant defensive performance where they shut down the Las Vegas Raiders – the number one offense in the league.
The problem for Baker is that Cleveland is throwing the ball 47% of the time. Down from 52% in 2021, it is difficult for Baker to produce elite fantasy football numbers on limited attempts. He is not in the same category of a passer as Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott; players who deliver superior numbers on lower attempts. Going against the Chargers defense, I expect Baker to struggle and fall short of his projections.
RB: Najee Harris Under 17.5 Fantasy Points
Najee Harris is currently the RB4 in PPR, and he has been everything we have hoped through the first four weeks of the fantasy football season. Harris has been a volume play, currently 4th in the NFL in touches (81). Unfortunately, Harris has produced with little help from his offensive line. He is 4th in yards created among running backs and still has averaged only 3.4 yards per attempt. This highlights just how detrimental the line has been in front of him.
Harris will have to expect more of the same in Week 5. He gets the Broncos, who are first in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. Harris’s workload will be favorable on Sunday, but the inefficiency will weigh him down.
WR: Mike Williams Under 18.6 Fantasy Points
Mike Williams was riding high going into the week four matchup with Las Vegas. Williams averaged over 25 fantasy ppg through Weeks 1-3. It all came crashing down in Week 4, as Williams only saw four targets. He was not a crucial part of the offense finishing fourth behind Allen, Cook, and Ekeler. Keenan Allen was the alpha we remembered, pacing the team with 11 targets on the day.
In a matchup with Cleveland, it will not be easy for Williams. The Browns defense will give the Chargers all it can handle. Therefore, I would temper Mike Williams expectations this week.
TE: Cameron Brate Under 11 Fantasy Points
Cameron Brate gets a value boost in the Week 5 matchup against Miami. With Rob Gronkowski expected to be out, Brate gets a fantasy football value boost. The issue is that Brate was out-snapped in Week 4 by O.J. Howard. Even though he commanded a higher target share, it did not translate to production. Brate only caught 2 of 6 targets for 29 yards.
Brate has been a touchdown-dependent fantasy football player throughout his career. While having Brady as quarterback is a boost, Brate has eclipsed double-digit points without a touchdown four times in his eight-year career. Without a touchdown on Sunday, Brate will fall woefully short of the projections.
Flex: Tyler Boyd Under 14.4 Fantasy Points
While JuJu seems an obvious choice again, I wanted to mention another slot wide receiver in the flex spot this week. Tyler Boyd gets a downgrade with Higgins expected to be back in the lineup. In the two weeks Higgins has sat out, Boyd has thrived, seeing a higher target share than rookie phenom Ja’Marr Chase. Both Chase and Boyd have been top-13 wide receivers in that span, admirably picking up the slack on offense.
I expect Higgins to step in and pick up where he left off in a game that I suspect to be one of the best on the docket this week. Given the Packers’ struggles against tight ends this year, I anticipate Cincinnati to use the tight ends around the endzone. Thus, leading this game to not be an ideal matchup for Tyler Boyd this week.
Jesse Moeller
Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.