Let me tell you, when it rains, it pours. Do you ever have a week in fantasy football where it ends up being the wrong choice no matter what decision you make? That was me last week. Jonathon Taylor kicked things off and boy did he make look foolish, proving that some players are matchup proof on his way to 53.4 fantasy points against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Unfortunately, it did not get any better. All five players I recommended avoiding in Week 11 went over 20 fantasy points.
Regrettably, the winless week leaves me at 32 wins and 23 losses on the season and drops my win percentage to 58%. But, as the saying goes, sometimes you have to accept that it was not your week and move forward. So here’s to my Week 12 recommendations, and may they help the odds forever be in your favor.
QB: Derek Carr 18.58 Projected Fantasy Points
Derek Carr expected points added (EPA) on 20+ air yard throws:
Weeks 1-8: +36.6 (3rd of 38)
Weeks 9-10: -7.3 (32nd)— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) November 15, 2021
It feels like forever ago when the Raiders were 3-0 and the toast of the NFL season. A coaching change, followed by back-to-back disappointing losses, has put a damper on a once-promising season. The Derek Carr led passing offense has been a good unit with one major blemish. It struggles to score. Add in a subpar running attack and defense it should be no surprise this team is sitting at 5-5 through 10 games. Now Vegas gets a rough finish to the year to prove if they are a pretender or contender.
We get to see Carr against the Dallas Cowboys on national television for Thanksgiving day. Dallas is a different defense that has made countless big plays and frustrated opposing passers while blitzing on only 21.8% of dropbacks. I do expect Carr to have a few struggles and fall short of his fantasy football projection.
RB: Saints Starting RB (Alvin Kamara/Mark Ingram) 19.23 Projected Fantasy Points
First down targets are worth roughly 15-20% more Fantasy points than targets that come on downs 2-4.
2021 target per route run leaders on first downs:
40% — Deebo Samuel
39% — AJ Brown
35% — Davante Adams
32% — Kyle Pitts
31% — Alvin Kamara, Tyreek Hill
28% — CeeDee Lamb— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 9, 2021
Trusting in the Buffalo defense again, are we? Call me a sucker for punishment, but I still believe in this Buffalo squad. After the debacle against Indianapolis, the Buffalo defense stills leads the NFL in expected points added by a defense. We also have Kamara’s knee being a lingering issue going into a short week. Let’s say Kamara does play. I imagine he will not be near 100%, and he would not see a full workload. If Kamara misses this week, I will be fading the next man up in Mark Ingram, as he is worse than a limited Kamara. The Saints have been punished by injuries this year, and Buffalo will be able to key in on this offense’s limited options. I am taking the under on either Saints running back.
WR: A.J. Brown 14.74 Projected Fantasy Points
Highest-graded WRs in the AFC:
🥇 Tyreek Hill – 85.3
🥈 A.J. Brown – 82.7
🥉 Ja’Marr Chase – 81.3 pic.twitter.com/CrQK4o488K— PFF (@PFF) November 7, 2021
I think you can see the beginning of a trend with the players I have picked. A.J. Brown is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL, but those injuries have hampered his 2021 season. Now, go ahead and guess who is on the other side of the field? Good ole, Bill Belichick, who is notorious for taking away your best option in a matchup.
With the Titans already missing half of its fearsome foursome, the talent around Brown has taken a plunge, so much so that Chester Rodgers and Marcus Johnson are the top two options without Brown on the field. Tannehill, without Henry, has averaged a whopping 14.62 PPG in his last three outings. Meanwhile, the Patriots defense is surging. During its previous 26 possessions, it has allowed 7 points and scored 13. Think about that level of dominance for New England. As a result, it will be a difficult feat for AJB to beat his week 12 projection.
TE: George Kittle 16.39 Projected Fantasy Points
George Kittle's numbers in the red zone in 2021:
3 targets, 3 completions, 15 yards, 3 touchdowns.
Yeah. Maybe do that a little more.
— Jason Aponte (@JasonAponte2103) November 22, 2021
Have you caught onto the trend yet? Another player with all the talent in the world who has dealt with injuries throughout his career. I know that Travis Kelce is the fantasy football goat, but Kittle is the best overall tight end in the NFL. He can beat you either blocking or catching passes. It’s a joy to watch this man play the tight end position. A healthy Kittle makes the NFL better, especially at the wasteland of the tight end position.
Since Kittle’s return from injury in Week 9, he has started catching touchdown passes, which was previously a knock against him. Three touchdowns in his last three games make up 17% of his career touchdowns. I am lower on Kittle this week because I do not see this trend continuing in Week 12. Without a touchdown, hitting over his projection will be difficult; especially against a Vikings defense that has only allowed 35 receptions to tight ends this season. So I’ll place my bets elsewhere for tight ends in Week 12.
Flex: Odell Beckham Jr. 15.41 Projected Fantasy Points
Top-5 seasons all-time for a WR by fantasy points per game:
1. Jerry Rice (1987) —26.2
T2. Jerry Rice (1995) — 25.9
T2. Cooper Kupp (2021) — 25.9 *through 10 games*
4. Davante Adams (2020) — 25.6
5. Odell Beckham (2014) — 24.6— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 16, 2021
Last but certainly not least. OBJ may be the most talented wide receiver of this generation. Still, he has not been a reliable fantasy football asset since his time in New York, which was four seasons ago. Given that it has only been two weeks since Beckham’s arrival in Los Angeles, I wonder how involved he will be in the game plan this upcoming week. I love the talent, but I question if he will receive an entire snap share.
OBJ could hit a big touchdown in this matchup, and I could eat crow. However, I need to see McVay’s plan for Beckham before I fully buy in after OBJ played 15 snaps in Week 9. Given the quarterback, scheme, and coaching upgrade for OBJ in Los Angeles, it will only be a matter of time before it clicks. Unfortunately, I cannot say confidently that Week 12 will be that week.
Jesse Moeller
Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.