Amid the Week 7 bye-pocolypse I was able to have my best week to date, as I nailed everyone one of the five predictions. After Monday night, those five wins (bringing me to 20 wins and 15 losses on the season) is good enough for a 57% win percentage. Here’s to hoping I can keep this train moving in the right direction. Now, I turn my attention to the fantasy football matchups that await in Week 8. As always, I am using the full PPR projections from Sleeper.
QB – Aaron Rodgers 22.07 Projected Points
Good gawd, Aaron Rodgers is HEATING UP for the @packers.
Week 1 Since
W-L 0-1 6-0
Comp pct 53.6% 70.5%
Yds/att 4.8 8.2
TD/INT 0/2 15/1 pic.twitter.com/b0gcSPQliY— NFL on CBS š (@NFLonCBS) October 25, 2021
Week 8 starts with a doozy of a matchup on Thursday night, with Rodgers and the Packers heading to the desert to play the undefeated Cardinals on a short week. Rodgers is cooking in his last six matchups, playing at the MVP level we are all so accustomed to seeing each Sunday.
The issue for me is that star wideout Davante Adams is likely out of Thursday’s game with Covid, meaning Rodgers will need to rely on Lazard, MVS, and Tonyan to step up in Adams’s absence. Add in the Cardinals give up the 3rd least fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position, and it’s a scenario for Rodgers to underperform. You are better off lowering expectations and benching Rodgers if you have a decent option.
RB – Leonard Fournette 16.67 Projected Points
For the second week in a row, Leonard Fournette led RBs in expected half PPR points.
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) October 25, 2021
Lombardi Lenny has continued his torrid playoff performance from last year and has carried right on, putting an end to the question of which Buccaneers running back to draft this offseason. The answer was unquestionably Fournette. Through seven weeks, Uncle Lenny is 6th in touches, 8th in yards, and 9th in fantasy points among running backs. If you had told fantasy football managers through seven weeks, Fournette would be an RB1; every one of them would have signed up for that, myself included.
I am fading Fournette in this matchup because New Orleans allows a tepid 2.77 yards per rush on the season. The Saints do not let running backs get going. The most yeards they’ve permitted on the ground came in Week 2, giving up 82 yards to the Panthers. It doesn’t get better through the air as they have allowed only 25 receptions on the season. I would diminish expectations and treat Fournette as a flex play this week.
WR – Tyler Boyd 12.20 Projected Points
Tyler Boyd per game
When Tee Higgins plays:
– 5.3 targets
– 4 catches
– 34 yards
– 8.9 fantasy PPGWhen Tee Higgins is out:
– 9 targets
– 6.5 catches
– 77 yards
– 17.2 fantasy PPGBoyd is borderline droppable at this point
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 25, 2021
Boyd was a fade for me going into the year. As it was evident that Chase and Higgins were more talented and would cut into the role Boyd held in the Cincinnati offense the previous years. As a result of the changes, the pie has shrunk due to the Bengals’ pace of play. That’s a massive issue for Boyd. As the tweet above points out, Boyd provides little fantasy football value when all three wide receivers play.
The Bengals play the Jets, a defense that is hemorrhaging fantasy points to running backs this year. Mixon will receive another 20+ touches on Sunday. As the 4th fantasy option on the team, Boyd will not be able to live up to his projections. Therefore, I am benching Tyler Boyd until further notice.
TE – Dalton Schultz – 11.73 Projected Points
Michael Gallup designated to return from IR #NFL #NFLNews #Cowboys #FantasyFootball Analysis: The question will be how does this affect Cooper and Lamb given the balanced attack of Dallas's offense. Our expectation is Dalton Schultz's fantasy value is the real victim pic.twitter.com/NEG2bLZwwc
— Belly Up Sports' MD's Fantasy Football Show (@bellyupmdffshow) October 25, 2021
This season, Schultz has been a revelation. Stepping in during the Michael Gallup injury, the offense has not missed a beat. Schultz is currently the TE4 in fantasy PPG and TE5 on the season. Additionally, Schultz is second on the team in receptions, third in targets, and second in touchdowns. Schultz has been a weapon for Dak this season.
The problem for Schultz is Gallup comes back this week, stepping into his role as the third option in the passing attack. As a result, Schultz will see a decrease in his routes and targets now that the Cowboys are at full strength. Dropping down from 3rd to 4th/5th in the passing attack limits how productive a player can be, even on an offense as potent as Dallas. I would trade Schultz for Gesicki, Goedert, or Hockeson if you can, as I anticipate Schultz falling back to the back.
Flex – Mike Davis 11.80 Projected Points
Mike Davisā weekly share of backfield touches:
1. 66.6%
2. 57.1%
3. 55.1%
4. 46.8%
5. 40.5%
7. 19%— John Daigle (@notJDaigle) October 24, 2021
This offseason, Davis was a part of the fantasy football running back dead zone. It was titled the dead zone for a reason. Rounds 4-7 were where fantasy running backs go to die. However, Davis seemed safe this offseason because there was minimal competition. The offense guided by Matt Ryan expected to be potent.
While the offense has been good, the misconception from the community turned out to be on the talent competing with Davis. Cordarrelle Patterson is a former first-round pick. Even at the age of 30, Patterson has shown how dynamic he is. Get Patterson in space, and it’s a problem for the defense.
It has taken head coach Arthur Smith some time to realize that Davis is a worse player than Patterson. In Week 7, it all came to a head, as Davis received four total opportunities compared to Pattersons 19. Davis is going to have a difficult time breaking double-digit fantasy points without touchdowns. Mike Davis looks like the backup for the Falcons rest of the season.
Jesse Moeller
Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.