Jalen Hurts was not supposed to start last season. He was supposed to be a gadget guy until Carson Wentz‘s play got to the point where it was time for Hurts to take over. In his first start in Week 14, he became the first player in over three seasons to rush for over 100 yards in a single game against the Saints. That rushing upside is what makes him so intriguing for fantasy football this year, and why he could be a league winner. Whether or not you believe in Jalen Hurts, there are legitimate reasons why he could be the guy who wins people fantasy leagues. That being said, it is time to dive in!
The Rushing Upside
There is no bigger cheat code than having rushing upside as a QB in fantasy football. In Jalen Hurts’ four starts last year, he averaged 11.5 rush attempts per game, 68 rushing yards, and .75 rushing touchdowns. That is 11.3 fantasy points per game just from running.
PFF’s Ian Hartiz talked about the upside for rushing QB’s in a recent article saying, “Overall, we’ve seen 22 instances of a QB totaling at least 100 rush attempts in a single season since 2010; 15 (68%) finished as a top-eight fantasy QB.”
Notice how this said 100 rushing attempts; which, over a normal 16-game schedule, is just 6.25 attempts per game. Hurts just averaged 11.5 in a small sample size, but should easily be able to surpass that threshold giving him a very real chance to be a top-8 fantasy football QB regardless of his passing limitations.
The Weapons
The weapons that Jalen Hurts has this year should be much better than the previous year.
Starting with the running backs, the Eagles did not lose anybody notable this offseason. They did select 5th round rookie Kenneth Gainwell, who is considered to be one of the best pass-catching RB’s in the entire 2021 NFL Draft. They also added Kerryon Johnson, who has solid size and speed.
At wide receiver, the Eagles lost Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson who combined for a whopping 351 receiving yards. In the 2021 NFL Draft, they selected the best wide receiver in college football in 2020, DeVonta Smith.
Drafting Smith means he can immediately be the top WR on the team, and should vastly improve their WR group. Jalen Reagor is going into his second season, presumably being moved in the slot, and should be healthy; and Travis Fulgham also has some sneaky potential heading into his 3rd year.
At tight end we have Dallas Goedert, who is still ascending in his fourth year and should continue to improve. Zach Ertz (who was widely expected to leave the Eagles) seems like he will stay as he is expected to report to training camp. A trade now seems unlikely heading into the final week in July. Ertz should be better than his career-low 335 receiving yards that he had in 2020.
Overall, these weapons should be far better than the previous year.
Injuries
The Eagles offensive line was absolutely ravaged by injuries last year. Among their five projected starters going into the 2020 season, three time pro bowler RG Brandon Brooks missed their entire season, LT Andre Dillard missed their entire season, RT Lane Johnson played 7 games, and LG Isaac Seumalo played 9 games. Only C Jason Kelce played a full 16 games.
In addition to this, the Eagles started 14 different starting offensive line combinations in 16 games. This makes it really difficult for Jalen Hurts, or any quarterback. Routes are unable to develop when the offensive line is injured and playing a new lineup every week.
Beyond the offensive line, the Eagles were one of the most injured teams in the NFL according to a recent article by the Philadelphia Inquirer. In the article it was stated that, “According to the website’s metrics, Eagles players lost 128.1 games to injuries and coronavirus-related absences, which was third most in the NFL”.
If these injury bug slows down for them this year, it could make the whole offense run more smoothly.
Similar QB’s
For the people who watched Jalen Hurts’ first four starts and said he can not succeed, lets look at some similar QB’s first four starts in comparison.
- Josh Allen: 783 total yds, 5 total TD, 5 INT
- Lamar Jackson: 932 total yds, 5 total TD, 3 INT
- Kyler Murray: 1184 yds, 5 total TD, 4 INT
- Jalen Hurts: 1191 total yds, 8 total TD, 3 INT
Clearly not too bad for his first few starts, regardless of what other metrics say.
Please note that two of the three QB’s listed became the QB1 in fantasy football in their sophomore season. Josh Allen who did not hit that mark, was the overall QB6 in his second season. Pretty solid company for Hurts.
A New Offense
Another narrative that people do not talk about enough is that Jalen Hurts will be playing in an offense designed for him this year. Last year, he came in at the end of the year and was quarterbacking an offense designed for Carson Wentz.
Now, there is a new coaching staff there to design an offense purely around Jalen Hurts and his abilities. Jalen Hurts was the QB3 in fantasy football for his first three starts combined in an offense not even designed for him. With all these new weapons, the potential is ridiculous.
Conclusion
I absolutely love Jalen Hurts this year. Even if you do not love some of the reasons I’ve listed, his rushing upside alone creates a top-10 QB floor this year, should he start 16 games. He is playing in an offense designed for him, has better weapons, and is competing just fine compared to other QB’s. Draft the quarterback in fantasy football who can play like a cheat code. Draft Jalen Hurts!
