July is upon us; which means start doing your research for the 2022 fantasy football redraft season. Last year, I started looking at explosive play percentage of offenses going up against defenses that would allow higher explosive plays per game. I introduced the concept in Week 9’s GameDay Edge article. The stat for explosive plays comes from Sharp Football Stats.
As fantasy football players prep for redraft season, I thought I would look at each division through the lens of explosive plays. The main focus is to try to identify players that may be primed with a higher percentage of plays yielding higher yards per attempt. This generally leads to good fantasy numbers. The 2019 Baltimore Ravens come to mind with an uber-efficient run – and pass plays – that led to several key players being flex-worthy options.
Obviously, several factors affect the rate of achieving explosive plays. This from offense line play, opposing defensive play, coaching tendencies, to individual skill player play. A good example is a coach scheming his WR open with low aDOT, but allowing a high YAC through design.
The goal will be to couple a coach’s tendency, especially for the new hire coaches, to help find those players with potential in the late rounds of fantasy football drafts. However, before we get into each division breakdown, let’s look at the overall NFL 2021 explosive rankings.
Below is the explosive pass play rank based on what percentage of plays yielded explosive plays per type. For a pass play to be deemed explosive, it needs to gain more than 15 yards. Let’s try to identify the sleeper wide receivers off of explosive pass plays data.
Top-10 2021 Passing Explosive Play Takeaways for 2022:
- San Francisco 49ers had the highest percentage of explosive pass plays, but Tampa Bay had the most total explosive plays at 76 (this is 9 more than the second-place team). Russell Gage and Mike Evans are screaming values in redraft leagues.
- Two of the fantasy darlings that led to several fantasy football championships had similar stats and play in similar offensive schemes. Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel had an aDOT of 8.59 and 8.57 respectively; while enjoying the two highest YAC totals at 846 and 772 yards, respectively. It will be interesting to see how new coaches and OCs from the Shanahan-McVay tree pan out in 2022.
- For the San Francisco 49ers, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel ranked 6th and 7th, respectfully, in explosive play percentage during the regular season (min 40 plays). Brandon Aiyuk can be a WR1 as long as he stays clear of Shanahan’s doghouse.
- The NE Patriots are a pleasant surprise, ranking 2nd in explosive pass plays (while also ranking 4th in explosive rush play percentage). Mac Jones should benefit from another offseason of learning and I think Jakobi Meyers is a late-round WR I will target a lot in redraft leagues. NE returns most of its offensive players and should continue to be successful under Belichick’s reign.
- 2022 Green Bay Packers will be interesting as Davante Adams accounted for 50% of the total targets & air yards. He also accounted for 32% of the explosive plays (20 explosive plays on 180 pass plays). Aaron Rodgers is likely going to spread the ball in a more balanced way. Look for Aaron Jones to potentially see an uptick in targets and YAC in 2022.
- Crazy to think Buffalo Bills’ offense has room to improve – placing 22nd in explosive play percentage. This could be due to the fact that defenses were daring them to run. They did, except it was Josh Allen doing most of the running and not the RBs. However, Gabriel Davis tied for first with a 21% explosive play percentage during the regular season.
- A surprising team is the LA Chargers ranking 21st in explosive pass plays which is not something anyone would expect from that high-powered offense. LA Chargers scored so many fantasy points because they were second with 703 pass attempts trailing only Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Volume is always king in fantasy football.
- If you’re looking for the next Cooper Kupp or Deebo Samuel, look at Jaylen Waddle. The hiring of Mike McDaniel coupled with the signing of Tyreek Hill could do wonders for Tua Tagovailoa. McDaniel will bring the scheme that could see Jaylen Waddle, Tyreek Hill, and Mike Gesicki be schemed open for significant YAC opportunities. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle ranked 2nd and 16th in YAC yardage in 2021.
- Las Vegas Raiders had the second most explosive plays at 67. The addition of the fifth-best YAC player gives the Raiders two top-15 YAC wide receivers in Davente Adams and Hunter Renfrow.
- Allen Robinson will be on several championship teams. He goes from one of the least explosive teams to a top-5 unit with 151 targets and 1,093 yards up for grab with the departure of Robert Woods and OBJ.
I look forward to writing the explosive rush play article later this week. Hope these tidbits help you make winning decisions in drafts especially in the middle rounds when trying to identify the next League Winner fantasy football player.
