Redraft fantasy football is upon us! The Scott Fish Bowl drafts start soon, bringing together people from all over the world. With that in mind, let’s take a look at explosive rush plays and how they correlate to successful running teams.
There have been several offensive coaches shuffling this offseason. Learning the scheme they bring to the new team is important. If you are interested in GameDay Edge explosive pass plays, take a look at this article. Starting next week, I will analyze each division and the offensive tendencies to try to identify successful fantasy football players in that offense.
Obviously, several factors affect the rate of achieving explosive plays. From offense line play, opposing defensive play, coaching tendency, to individual skill player play. A good example is a coach using motion to create optimal angles or create a numbers advantage in the run game.
The goal will be to couple a coach’s tendency – especially for the new hire coaches – to find those fantasy football players with potential in the late rounds of drafts. However, before we get into each division breakdown, let’s look at the overall NFL 2021 explosive rankings.
Below is the explosive rushing play ranking based on what percentage of offensive plays yielded explosive plays per type. For a rush play to be deemed explosive, it needs to gain more than 10 yards. The stats are from Sharp Football; but remember to filter to only Weeks 1-18. Let’s try to identify the sleeper running backs off of explosive rush plays data.
Explosive Rush Rank By Team Explosive Rush Rank By Team (No QB runs)
Top-10 2021 Passing Explosive Play Takeaways for 2022:
- The surprising team in the top 5 is New England Patriots. They were the only team to rank top 5 in explosive percentages in all three charts (here is the explosive pass play article). However, they ranked 22nd in total number of plays. Expect positive regression in the total number of plays for the Patriots as Mac Jones gets more opportunities and gains Bill Belichick’s trust.
- Once you removed QB runs, the San Francisco 49ers were the other team in the top 5 in both pass and rush explosive rank. Kyle Shanahan’s playcalling is effective in creating space for his skilled players to exploit defenses. If Elijah Mitchell maintains his volume, he will easily finish as an RB1 in fantasy points.
- Teams that are heavily dependent on their QBs to generate explosive run plays are Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Cheifs. Atlanta Falcons, Los Angelos Rams, and the San Francisco 49ers. Expect the Ravens’ RB to get more explosive as they get J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards back from injury. If Trey Lance starts for the 49ers, look for them to be in the top 5 in every chart.
- The Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts placed 1 and 2 respectively in both 2020 and 2021 (no QB runs) while maintaining top 5 explosive run plays. Nick Chubb and Jonathan Taylor remain the safest options as RB1s.
- Look for Miami to take a positive jump in explosive run plays. Mike McDaniel comes from the Shanahan/McVay coaching tree. Other teams with coaches from that tree ranked top-15 in non-QB rush explosiveness. If Chase Edmonds takes the majority of the run plays, he will be this year’s Cooper Kupp in terms of value.
- An overlooked rushing team is the LA Rams. They ranked 9th in non-QB rush explosiveness. If Cam Akers takes over the majority share, he could catapult to a high-end RB2, or even low-end RB1. Akers’ upside is limited due to a lack of targets and receiving touchdowns.
- Breece Hall is going to place in the top-15 RB in fantasy football; as the NY Jets employ the same zone concept as the SF 49ers and LA Rams. Hall will likely be the third-down back while splitting rushing duties with Michael Carter. Michael Carter was effective in his role last year. But he projects to have the same responsibility this year as an RB2 option. He is a great handcuff to target.
- Stay away from the Buffalo Bills running backs. There seems to be a true 4-headed monster RBBC forming. Devin Singletary projects as the 2-down back with James Cook taking the third-down role. Zach Moss will relieve Singletary from time to time, while Josh Allen will continue to utilize his legs to ensure drives do not end. On top of that, the Buffalo Bills have been bottom five in rush plays in back-to-back years.
- Saquan Barkley is being hyped to have a great year; but Brain Daboll’s recent track record does not fit high rush volume. However, the talent and the offensive line could dictate Daboll utilizing his best offensive weapon. Especially since Barkley will not have to contend with an RBBC situation.
- Miles Sanders is being undervalued this year. He had horrible touchdown luck last year and was still an effective rusher. The Eagles only dropped four spots when you remove Jalen Hurts rush attempts. in explosive percentage. Sanders led the RBs with15% explosive rushes on a team-high volume of 137 rushes.
