Fantasy Football: GameDay Edge – Week 1

Welcome to the first GameDay Edge article! Before we dive into it, let me explain the inspiration behind this article. I run a fantasy football format over at Lineup Showdown, where you set a lineup each week with the caveat that once you use the player, you cannot use him again for the rest of the season. It is like DFS with a twist and no salary. Playing this format for five years in a home league, I quickly realized the need to understand individual and team matchups. Hence this article originated from the research I view for the Lineup Showdown leagues.

Introduction

What is information? A lot of people say data is information. However in his book The Haystack Syndrome: Sifting Information Out of the Data Ocean, E. Goldratt provides a new look at the relationship between information and data that simply is an application of common sense in a world designed to overflow you with data.

Simply put, the new perspective is: without context, data is just data. Context is needed for data to turn into information.

In fantasy football and real football, the data ocean is larger than the Pacific itself. To illustrate how data can alter information, just go check out Matthew Berry’s 100 facts article year after year. Berry does a great job using data (stats) to compare Player A versus Player B only for the revelation of the players to be a surprising result. Hence data (stats) without context is dangerous. It is up to you as the fantasy football player to use the data in your own context.

That is where GameDay Edge comes in. For three games a week, this article will try to provide data that you use in context to make the best decision in setting your lineup. A simple example of context is the difference between playing in a redraft league or a DFS tournament. You would not start Marquez Callaway over Stefon Diggs in your redraft league.

But in a DFS tournament, Callaway might be a more tremendous value starter in your lineup due to salary. So remember to use the stats (data) below from each game in your own context. Check out our own Jesse Moeller’s Fantasy Football Week 1: Five Players to Avoid article along with the data here to help with lineup decisions.

Game Day Edge: Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• In the first four games of 2020 with a healthy Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott saw 30 targets converting them to 23 receptions for 159 yards and four touchdowns. That is 7.5 targets, 5.75 receptions, 40 yards, and 1 touchdown per game average just through the air.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a team held all running backs to just 960 yards on the ground for the entire season (that is 60 yards a game average). Tampa Bay had the second-lowest total scrimmage yards to running backs with a total of 1,631 yards.
• Dallas Cowboys defense led the league in touchdowns scored by the opposing team’s wide receivers with 27 touchdowns.
• Tampa Bay wide receivers own a 70% touchdown share.

Game Day Edge: Arizona Cardinals vs Tennessee Titans

• Arizona Cardinals allowed 453 rushing yards to quarterbacks last season. That was the most by any team to the quarterback position.
• Ryan Tannehill rushed for seven touchdowns in 2020.
• Tennessee Titans allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the wide receivers while giving up 22 touchdowns to the position.
• DeAndre Hopkins saw 18 redzone targets and a 29.4% target share.

Game Day Edge: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

• Houston Texans defense had three interceptions for the entire 2020 season.
• James Robinson had 4.3 true yards per carry (a metric that discounts any runs longer than 10 yards eliminating skewed results).
• Houston Texans gave up the most fantasy points to the running back position also leading in rush yards allowed at 2,332 yards (146 yards a game).
• Over the last five games of 2020, Jacksonville Jaguars gave up the most points to the running back position at 31.5 points per game. and led the league in rush yards allowed during the same time period yielding 150 yards per game average.