As I mentioned in GameDay Edge Week 9, the Tennessee Titans stood a chance if their 24.9% pressure held the Kansas City offense in check. They did an admirable job until Mahomes took over with his legs against the fierce rush. There are some interesting matchups this week for fantasy football so let’s take look at the match-up chart.
As a reminder, this is a matchup chart and not a team performance chart. For example, the Bills’ offense has a .1715 pass EPA/play matchup advantage against the Vikings’ defense based on median adjusted EPA/play data.
Week 10 Passing Game Tidbits
- The weekly beneficiary of playing the Detroit Lions this week is the Chicago Bears. In the past three weeks, the Bears rank second with 31.3 points per game. They also lead the league in third down conversions rate at 55.1% the past three weeks. Now they face the Lions’ defense allowing the highest third down conversions rate at 51.02%. On the flip side, the Bears’ defense ranks second-highest the past three weeks in allowing a 61.29% conversion rate. This is the game I am targeting in any one-and-done fantasy football leagues like the #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown.
- Another interesting game is the Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins. On a per-pass EPA/play matchup basis, they rank fourth (Miami) and sixth (Browns) this week. The Dolphins are only averaging a 14.9% pressure rate. The front seven will be preoccupied with facing the Browns’ rushing offense; look for Jacoby Brissett to have ample time to throw. In the past three weeks, the Cleveland Browns rank fourth with 8.4 yards per pass attempt.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers are allowing the most touchdowns to the WR position with 13; and are giving up 31.1 fantasy points per game. On top of that, the Steelers are only generating a 14.0% pressure rate while giving up the third-most 7.8 yards per attempt. The New Orleans Saints lead the league with 2838 intended air yards.
- The Denver Broncos have only allowed ONE receiving touchdown to the wide receiver position. The Tennessee Titans rank dead last with only 88 targets to the wide receiver position.
Week 10 Rushing Game Tidbits
- The Chicago Bears rank first in both yards before contact and yards after contact.
- Saquon Barkley ranks third with 779 rush yards and gets the second-worst rushing defense with 5.5 yards per rush attempt (and the second-worst in the past three weeks at 6.0 yards per rush attempt) in Houston Texans. However, the New York Giants are tied with the Texans; having the same 5.5 yards per rush attempt but have been averaging 6.3 yards per rush attempt in the past three weeks. Target running backs in this game for any one-and-done fantasy football leagues like the #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown.
- The bottom three teams in bad rush EPA/play matchup games are the Colts, Buccaneers, and Broncos. Tampa Bay ranks dead last with a 30.76% rush play percentage – which declines every week. They have had a minuscule 24.64% rush play percentage in the past three weeks.
- The Kansas City and Jacksonville Jaguars game features the two defenses allowing the most receptions to the running back position; each team is giving up 60 receptions so far this season. They both average approximately 16% RB target share.
