Hoping everyone is making a push for the playoffs in their fantasy football leagues! Let’s take a look at the Week 13 matchups. A quick glance shows a lot of teams have an above-average passing game matchup. You can find Week 12’s article here.
As a reminder, this is a matchup chart and not a team performance chart. The chart will look at matchups for each game using EPA/play data from rbsdm.com. I will attempt to look for outlier matchups according to EPA/play and substantiate them with more stats.
Week 13 Passing Game Tidbits
- Over 73% of the teams this weekend have a passing EPA/play over the median. The Indianapolis Colts seem like the outlier with the worst pass EPA/play matchup of -.2605. This has to do more with the league-leading pressure rate of 30.2% and the third-lowest yards per pass attempt of 5.7 YPA by the Dallas Cowboys’ defense. The pressure generation leads to a league-leading sack percentage of 11.51% as well for the Cowboys. Colts’ offense is allowing the fifth-highest sack percentage at 8.85% for the year.
- The potential goldmine fantasy football game of the week is likely Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions. Both teams’ offenses rank top ten in offense total yardage as well as in the top ten in most yardage allowed by opposing teams. I am targeting this game in any one-and-done fantasy football league. For a one-and-done league, follow #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown on Twitter.
- Another great game to target for one-and-done fantasy football league games is Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals. The Chiefs will get their points but the game will be decided if the Bengals’ offensive line can hold up against the Chiefs’ pressure. The Bengals have turned it around by allowing only a 4.46% sack percentage in the last three weeks.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ offense and New Orleans Saints’ offense are only averaging 18.0 and 12.3 points a game in the past three weeks, respectively. While Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense and New Orleans Saints’ defense are allowing 17.3 and 17.7 points a game in the same three-game span.
Week 13 Rushing Game Tidbits
- The Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns game pits the top two worst fantasy running defenses against each other. Texans lead the league giving up 25.6 fantasy points per game with a league-leading 14 touchdowns given up to running backs. The Browns are second in both categories with 24.0 fantasy points per game and 13 touchdowns (tied second with Chicago Bears).
- Speaking of the Chicago Bears, they face a Green Bay defense that opponents run on at 50.82% which is third most for the season. The Packers’ defense only trails the Seahawks’ defense in the past three weeks by allowing 30.2 points a game to running backs. David Montgomery should have success if the Bears’ defense can hold up against the Packers’ offense. In the past three weeks, the Bears defense is allowing the third-most points a game at 29.7 and the Packers’ defense is second-highest allowing 31.7 points a game.
- The team allowing the highest points per game in the last three weeks is the Minnesota Vikings. NFC North has some porous defense thus far. The Vikings lead the league in the past three weeks giving up 221 yards on 20 receptions (third-highest) to running backs. Fire up the Jets RBs this week in any one-and-done fantasy football league. For a one-and-done league, follow #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown on Twitter.
Hope these tidbits help you find some gems to start this week. Be sure to check out one-and-done fantasy football leagues by following #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown on Twitter.