The last week of byes are here for fantasy football. If you are making a playoff push, it’s not the best time to have teams on byes. Let’s see if we can find some matchups that can help you compensate for players on byes.
As a reminder, this is a matchup chart and not a team performance chart. The chart will look at matchups for each game using EPA/play data from rbsdm.com. I will attempt to look for outlier matchups according to EPA/play and substantiate them with more stats.
An interesting fact from Week 13 is that the Cincinnati Bengals’ passing defense is now allowing the lowest completion percentage. This led to Mahomes’ third-lowest completion percentage of the year. This an interesting stat to keep track of moving forward as we eye the fantasy football playoffs. Check out the Week 13 article here.
Week 14 Passing Game Tidbits
- Even though the Kansas City passing offense gets to play the Denver Bronco’s formidable passing defense, the EPA/play matchup still favors the Chiefs due to their league-leading passing per-play offense. The Broncos’ defense is tenth-lowest in completion percentage allowed while being second-lowest in yards per pass (5.4 YPA). However, the Broncos’ defense is generating bottom-half pressure with a 21.0% pressure rate. The number one scoring offense meets the second-stingiest scoring defense. Unfortunately for Denver, their offense cannot sustain drives to keep the Chiefs’ offense off the field.
- Houston Texans have completed only 58.56% of passes in the past three weeks and now face the league-leading pressure-generating Dallas Cowboys. I would not be starting any Texans this week if making a playoff push.
- The Minnesota Vikings-Detroit Lions matchup is intriguing because I am using season-long numbers. However, the Detroit Lions defense has vastly improved to the tune of allowing a 55.8% completion percentage and the tenth-lowest yard per attempt (6.3 YPA; they rank 30th for the season for comparison) in the past three weeks. This may be why the Lions open as favorites even though the Vikings have the second-best record in the NFC. The Detroit Lions are now second-best in throws that are hurried with a 10% Hurry percentage.
- Tom Brady has looked flustered the past couple of weeks. Even the New Orleans Saints low pressure generating defense got to him until the last drive of the game. Now he faces a San Francisco defense that has the league-leading pressure-generating player in Nick Bosa with 43 pressures. Fully expect this game to be eerily similar to the MNF game of NOS-TB.
- If the Jacksonville Jaguars want to beat the Tennessee Titans, The Jacksonville Jaguars are attempting the third-highest pass attempts at 37 pass attempts a game in the past three weeks. The Titans are allowing the highest number of pass attempts on their defense for the season with opponents passing 40.2 times a game (that number is 39.0 pass attempts a game in the past three weeks.). Zay Jones leads the Jaguars in targets since week 10 with 31. Pick him up as a great flex option.
Week 14 Rushing Game Tidbits
- The debate between Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott is unwarranted. The Dallas Cowboys have renewed their commitment to the run game to the tune of 37.7 rush attempts a game in the past three weeks. Pollard and Elliott have split the touches almost evenly. They are the two running backs I am targeting in any one-and-done fantasy football league. For a one-and-done league, follow #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown on Twitter.
- The New York Giants are underdogs by 6.5 points against the league-leading Philadelphia Eagles. On the surface, it seems like the Eagles should run away with this game which is the most likely outcome. However, there exists a scenario where the New York Giants get a win in this division-rival game. The Giants have the third-highest pressure rate at 24.8% and the cornerback with the lowest yards per target against him is James Bradberry. On the offensive side, they can lean on Saquon Barkley to run the ball who is averaging 87.9 yards a game. However, this will go against the team’s tendency to be pass-heavy in the past three weeks with only a 39.29% run play percentage which is a trend reversal from earlier in the season.
- Derrick Henry has rushed for only 155 yards in the past three weeks with 87 of that coming in the Green Bay game. Look for Vrabel to give the ball to Henry upwards of 25 attempts to regain control of the two-game losing streak. Derrick Henry has scored 5 touchdowns and ran for 345 yards the last two times the team played. The Jags are a decent rush defense but their pass defense is porous. Look for Henry to score in the red zone and then gain control as he gets fed the ball in the second half. This is more of a narrative-based tidbit than a stat one.
Hope these tidbits help you find some gems to start this week. Be sure to check out one-and-done fantasy football leagues by following #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown on Twitter.