We are already in the second week of most fantasy football playoffs. Very tough decisions need to be made to fully optimize lineups to advance to the finals. Let’s see if we can identify fantasy football player matchups to exploit.
As a reminder, this is a matchup chart and not a team performance chart. The chart will look at matchups for each game using EPA/play data from rbsdm.com. I will attempt to look for outlier matchups according to EPA/play and substantiate them with more stats. Check out the Week 14 matchup article here.
Week 15 Passing Game Tidbits
- If playing against a team with Buffalo Bills and/or Kansas City players, you are looking at an uphill battle. The Bills and Chiefs passing matchups are skewed due to both offenses’ efficient passing game versus not-so-good passing defenses. I am targeting the Kansas City – Seattle game in any one-and-done fantasy football league. For a one-and-done league, follow #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown on Twitter.
- If you cannot find the Arizona Cardinals, it is because they are behind the New England Patriots on the graph. The Cardinals are playing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers while likely starting Trace McSorley as their quarterback. Arizona has given up 48 hurries so far this season, tied first with the NY Jets and KC Chiefs. The Tampa Bay Bucs are fifth with a sack percentage of 8.05%. Steer away from Arizona Cardinal players if possible this week.
- The LA Rams are bottom five in both yards per attempt and yards per completion. Now they get to play the Denver Broncos who are in the top two (in terms of allowing the least yards) in both categories. Again, do not start any Rams this week in your games.
- The SF 49ers defense has been playing lights out the past couple of weeks. Washington Commanders rank in the bottom 10 for yards per play. If you can pivot from Brian Robinson and Terry McLaurin, I would do so.
Week 15 Rushing Game Tidbits
- It is absurd that a .061 EPA/play for rushing is the best matchup compared to a .3925 EPA/play for passing. In a passing league, not the rushing EPA/play ceiling is lower and the floor is as well lower than in passing. Can this be attributed to more passing attempts which likely means more practice snaps as well?
- The Miami Dolphins have one of the better rushing matchups relative to the median. However, the Dolphins rank second least with 22.4 rush attempts a game. The number drops to 17.3 in the last three Miami games. However, in those three games, Miami leads the league with 6.0 yards of a rush attempt. Mostert is a flex option and owners better hope for a long touchdown run.
- The Dallas Cowboys rank second within the last three games with 35.3 rush attempts a game. A soft spot for the Eagles this season has been their rush defense but teams have had to abandon the run due to scoring differential. Look for the Cowboys to continue to ride Pollard and Elliott.
- The Carolina Panthers lead the league in the past three games with 36 rush attempts in the past three games. I think they upset the Detroit Lions at home by rushing the ball and playing solid pass-defense. Jared Goff’s road splits are very negative and that can affect the entire offense.
Hope these tidbits help you find some gems to start this week. Be sure to check out one-and-done fantasy football leagues by following #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown on Twitter.
