Another wild week in fantasy football happened in Week 3; as wide receivers and quarterbacks are carrying teams to wins. In GameDay Edge Week 3, the tidbits were pretty spot on. Unfortunately, there were a lot of TD vultures or inability to score by crucial players like Austin Ekeler, Breece Hall, Hollywood Brown, etc. Take a look at my suggestions and let me know how I did in Week 3.
Now, we’re on to Week 4, where I will start providing a new chart! The chart will look at matchups for each game using EPA/play data from rbsdm.com. I will attempt to look for outlier matchups according to EPA/play and substantiate with more stats.
Week 4 Passing Game Tidbits
- The Detroit Lions have a very favorable matchup against the porous passing defense of the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are giving up the most yards per pass attempt, 8.4 YPA, in the league at a 66.3% completion percentage. Detriot passes at the 11th most attempts at 108 total attempts so far. With Aman-Ra St. Brown not playing Sunday, it could be Josh Reynolds and DJ Chark who could see a good amount of targets.
- On the flip side, the Seattle Seahawks also have a favorable matchup against the Detroit Lions passing defense. The Detroit Lions are giving up league-highest 31 points per game while also being an effective offense. In one-and-done leagues,, I plan on targeting Detroit Lions games on a weekly basis. If you have not played in any one-and-done leagues, go search #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown on Twitter.
- Even though the Buffalo Bills have a good match-up with the Baltimore Ravens, the weather could be a factor; with the remnants of Hurricane Ian coming through. Keep an eye on the weather. If the weather lessens, the Bills should have success against the porous defense that has not corrected its 2021 problems so far.
- I feel like the constant media attention on Russell Wilson’s ineptitude so far may backfire this week. The LV Raiders are a good pass funnel defense as they are a middle-of-the-pack rush defense tied 16th with 109.3 rush yards a game. But, they allow the 7th most passing yards per game at 267.0 yards. Denver can have success with their passing game against the Raiders’ weaker pass defense.
- Even though the LA Rams have the worst pass EPA/play matchup, the matchup favors Cooper Kupp. The SF 49ers are allowing only 5.5 yards per pass attempt and along with their negative pass-defense EPA/play indicates they will play to limit downfield passing. Allen Robinson will likely falter again against the SF 2-high defense so fantasy football managers will likely be disappointed but Kupp will eat those targets as SF still allows a middle-of-the-pack 64.2% completion percentage.
Week 4 Running Game Tidbits
- The juiciest matchup this week is Cleveland Browns’ run game versus the Atlanta Falcons run defense. However, Atlanta Falcons are 27th in fantasy football points to RBs; mainly due to very low rushing touchdowns given through three weeks. However, that may be an indication of their opponents. The LA Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and NO Saints rank 22nd, 26th, and 29th in rush play percentage while the Cleveland Browns rank second in rush play percentage.
- The New York Giants look to be a rushing funnel defense as they are mediocre in pass EPA/play but they rank bottom half in rush EPA/play. The Chicago Bears rank highest in rush play percentage at a league-defying 65.41% rate. The Giants are giving up 22.1 points a game to RBs ranking third-worst in the league. With David Montgomery out, Khalil Herbert is a great player in fantasy football DFS and one-and-done leagues.
- The Tennessee Titans are a bad rushing offense, which is hard to fathom with the presence of Derrick Henry. However, they are rushing at 47.62% which is the sixth highest in the league. Opponents average 29.3 rush attempts, seventh highest, but at league-worst 2.6 rush yards per attempt. Since this is a division rivalry game, Derrick Henry could produce;d but the metrics indicate the Titans will fall behind and use the pass more as the game goes on.
- The Philadelphia Eagles run the ball 34.3 times a game for third highest in the league. However, they face the stingiest rush defense in total yards in the Jacksonville Jaguars who allow only 55 yards a game. This is the most interesting game of the week as I think the Jaguars’ run defense will be tested often but can come up with an upset if they perform at the level they have been so far this year.
- The Minnesota Vikings are allowing a league-high 71.43% of their total touchdowns as rushing touchdowns. If the NO Saints are able to move into the red zone often,
Hope these tidbits help you find some gems to start this week. Be sure to check out one-and-done leagues by following #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown on Twitter.
