The top passing matchup game in Week 4 delivered plenty of fireworks. The Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks provided fantasy football fireworks with Jared Goff finishing as the overall QB1. I did point out some good/bad matchups in Week 4; nailing that the LAR may struggle against the SF defense was a good call. Let’s review the EPA/play matchups for fantasy football Week 5.
Week 5 Passing Game Tidbits
- Even with Tua out due to an egregious medical error by the Miami Dolphins, Teddy Bridgewater and the Dolphins should feast against the New York Jets passing defense. Even the Jets passing offense is set up with a favorable matchup. Could this be Week 5’s Det-Sea game? It’s likely, with both defenses ranked in the bottom ten in yards per completion (more than 11+ yards), opponent completion percentage, and net yards per attempt. Miami is actually the worse pass defense, so this could be a shootout.
- Patrick Mahomes lit the strong TB defense on fire on SNF. Now the KC Chiefs and he gets the porous LV Raiders defense. Both teams rank bottom half in opponent completion percentage; with the KC Chiefs defense giving up 70.29% completion percentage. However, they give up only 6.0 yards per attempt ranking fifth best (tied). They do give up the most completions and yards to the RB position.
- Kenny Pickett’s first pass attempt was an interception. Now he gets a tough matchup in the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are allowing the fourth-lowest net yards per attempt at 4.7, and also the fifth-highest pressure rate at 27.7%.
- Jalen Hurts should continue his MVP season against the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona ranks dead last in sack percentage at 2.80% while allowing the seventh highest completion percentage at 68.35%. Philadelphia Eagles are tied third with 4.3 RedZone scoring opportunities. However, both teams rank top-5 for least TOP for their opponents. Philadelphia is third with 26.18 TOP allowed and Arizona ranks fifth with 27:34 TOP allowed. I bet Philadelphia will score even on limited opportunities; but Arizona may struggle against the potent Eagles’ passing defense.
- Unlike Week 4 pass EPA/play matchups, this week sees a lot of positive passing game matchups. For fantasy football DFS or one-and-done leagues, there is value to be had in over 50% of games. Targeting games like NE-DET, SEA-NO, or targeting JAX (Kirk), MIA (Bridgewater), or LAC players will yield positive results. If you have not played in any one-and-done leagues, go search #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown on Twitter.
Week 5 Passing Game Tidbits
- Another week and another positive rushing matchup for the Cleveland Browns. This week they face the Los Angeles Chargers who are yielding the second most yards per rush attempt at 5.4 YPA. The Chargers are also yielding the most receiving touchdowns to running backs so far this season at 3 total touchdowns; along with the fifth-most running back yardage and fourth-mort completions to running backs. This comes out to the fourth-most RB fantasy/points per game at 23.0 FPts/G.
- The best rushing matchup belongs to the New England Patriots. Rashaad Penny just ran for 151 yards on only 17 attempts against the porous Detriot Lions’ rush defense. New England Patriots run the ball 28.5 times a game so far in 2022 at 4.5 YPA. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are great RB2s in this game; with one likely to catapult into RB1 territory in fantasy football. It will depend on whoever gets the touchdowns.
- On the flip side of that matchup, don’t sleep on the Detroit Lions running backs. They lead the league in rush yards per attempt at 5.9 YPA. If D’Andre Swift is again limited or out, Jamaal Willaims should once again return RB1 fantasy points. New England joins Detroit in the bottom five in rush yards per rush attempt. This game could yield multiple RB1s.
- Denver Broncos get the worst rush matchup this week against the Indianapolis Colts – in terms of rush EPA/play. However, the Colts just let Derrick Henry run for 114 yards. The Colts still are averaging 3.1 rush yards per attempt even after Henry’s spectacular performance. Denver just lost Javonte Williams; they will depend on Melvin Gordon (who has fumbled four times) and Mike Boone. Look for them to struggle against the Colts defense.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams, and Miami Dolphins all average less than 21 rush attempts per game, ranking as the bottom three. They have not been effective when they do rush, either. Maybe it is a good time to trade Chase Edmonds, Cam Akers, and Lenny who rely on targets to produce but also have stiff competition for targets.
Hope these tidbits help you find some gems to start this week. Be sure to check out one-and-done leagues by following #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown on Twitter.
