Let’s see if we can identify some better stats in the Week 6 GameDay Edge than last week. Just when I said trade Leonard Fournette due to lack of rushing volume, he puts up 36 PPR points. However, most of his points came from his receiving skills – where he thrived in 2021. If TB keeps using him in the passing game, Lenny will produce for fantasy football. The rush volume is not there for him though. Let’s look at the EPA/play chart for Week 6.
Week 6 Passing Game Tidbits
- I started writing this article at the TNF halftime show. It was interesting to see that Chicago Bears struggle against Washington Commanders even though they have a favorable EPA/play matchup in the passing game. However watching the game, the Bears OL couldn’t handle the Washington DL in pass protection. So obviously I checked the pressure rates. Washington’s defense checks in fifth with a 27.9% pressure-generating rate while Chicago’s offense is allowing the third most pressure rate at 31.3%. I need to incorporate pressure rate into the formula moving forward.
- This week’s game to target in fantasy football is the Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals. The game will feature the top three passing EPA/play matchup this week. Arizona ranks first in the NFL averaging 43 pass attempts a game. They do rank dead last with only 5.7 YPA. Seattle is giving up 8.6 YPA which is the worst in the league.
- The Buffalo Bills own the best matchup this week; and everyone knows what happened in the divisional round game in 2021. Another game like that with the top two quarterbacks in the league will cement them as the new Manning-Brady rivalry. Kansas City is tied for dead last allowing passing TDs; averaging 2.4 passing touchdowns per game. Kansas City ranks tops with 3.0 passing touchdowns a game followed by Buffalo Bills at 2.8 touchdowns per game.
- Another great passing matchup is the Minnesota Vikings against the Miami Dolphins. Minnesota is tied for sixth with 40.0 pass attempts per game. Miami Dolphins rank fourth with a healthy 8.0 YPA. From a pressure-generating perspective, Miami Dolphins rank third worst generating only 14.3%.
- Kenny Pickett is facing a murderer’s row of passing defenses. After facing the Bills, Pickett faces off against the TB Buccanneers. The Pittsburgh Steelers rank dead last in YAC per completion and average the fourth-worst 9.2 YPA completed.
Week 6 Rushing Game Tidbits
- The Indianapolis Colts have a bad passing matchup while owning the second-worst rushing EPA/play. This could be another ugly game for Matt Ryan and company. Even the Jacksonville Jaguars matchup with the Colts yielded a similarly bad rush EPA/play game. I would not be surprised if this game is a low-scoring affair. Jacksonville at least has a decent chance to move the ball via the air.
- Cincinnati Bengals have the worst rush EPA/play matchup. The Bengals have the third-worst rush YPA with 3.3 YPA. The Saints are allowing only 16.2 fantasy points to the running back position.
- The two best rushing EPA/play teams will face off each other in the New England Patriots and Cleveland Browns. New England rushes the ball nearly 30 times per game; joining Cleveland in the top 7 teams. This game should be a goldmine for running back production with Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Damien Harris getting lots of opportunities.
- This week JK Dobbins has a chance of breaking out after recovering from injury. The Baltimore Ravens have the best EPA/play rush matchup. Obviously, Lamar Jackson’s rushing factors into it. But the Ravens running game has been making progress since the return of Dobbins and Ronnie Stanley. This matchup feels like another Ravens game where they build a lead but let the Giants comeback via the passing game. Barkley should see a lot of targets, as the Ravens allow the second most running back receptions at 36.
- Jalen Hurts should continue his MVP season against the Dallas Cowboys. The Eagles have a mediocre EPA/play matchup; but the Cowboys have allowed 109 rush yards per game to QBs at only 16 attempts. Hurts will test this defense with his legs eventually opening up play action in the middle of the field.
Hope these tidbits help you find some gems to start this week. Be sure to check out one-and-done fantasy football leagues by following #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown on Twitter.