Week 6 in fantasy football was very unusual. Many teams struggled to move the ball or score touchdowns in the red zone. The New England Patriots scored the most points last week; just as everyone predicted. This is with the rematch of Buffalo Bills-Kansas City Chiefs on the slate. At least I did say New England would be victorious in the run game. I mentioned the same for their opponent – Cleveland Browns – but they only rushed 18 times and threw 45 times. Great game plan. My predictions in the Seattle-Arizona (predicted to be the best per-play matchups) and Indianapolis-Jacksonville (predicted to be one of the worst per-play matchups) games backfired. Onto Week 7 for GameDay Edge.
Week 7 Passing Game Tidbits
- Arizona somehow only scored 9 points against the Seattle Seahawks who are still averaging 27.2 points per game allowed. That ranks second-most, trailing the Detroit Lions. I am going to chalk that up to division rivals knowing each other fairly well. This week the Los Angeles Chargers should have success, especially with tight ends. The Seattle Seahawks are allowing 17.6 points per game to tight ends which is 5.4 more than second place Oakland Raiders. The Los Angeles Chargers have targeted the tight end position 25 times; ranking eighth in the league.
- Unlike prior weeks, Week 7 seems to have many more positive passing EPA/play matchups for fantasy football. The Baltimore Ravens have a high positive EPA/play per pass and rush plays. However, the Baltimore Ravens go from a .256 pass EPA/play to a -.101 pass EPA/play. That is a ridiculous .356 EPA/play swing between halves. This is leading to them blowing several leads so far this season.
- The San Francisco and Kansas City game should be a game where the offense will figure out a way to score; with both teams having good passing game matchups. However, the San Francisco 49ers lead the league with an 11.06% sack percentage. Meanwhile, the Kansas City Chiefs are allowing the third most completion percentage at 68.98%. The Chiefs also lead the league in allowing 53 receptions and 372 receiving yards to the running back position.
- The Carolina Panthers have the worst passing EPA/play, and face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They have traded away disgruntled WR Robbie Anderson to the Arizona Cardinals. The Panthers do not target the tight ends enough, which is a weak spot for the Buccaneers; who yield the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends. Maybe CMC continues to garner targets in lieu of the tight ends, as he did against the Rams.
- The Denver Broncos and New York Jets game is destined to be a defensive matchup. It seems like the Broncos are in those games every week. I am staying away from that game in any one-and-done fantasy football leagues like the #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown.
Week 7 Rushing Game Tidbits
- The Ravens have the best rushing matchup, which is far ahead of the entire slate. This is likely due to the explosive runs by Lamar Jackson – and lately by Kenyan Drake. The Cleveland Browns for the first time in many weeks have a mediocre rushing matchup. However, Baltimore opponents have only been rushing the ball 23.3 times a game; but at a modest 4.5 rush yards per attempt. The Browns are in the top six in both rush attempts (third) and rush yards per attempt (sixth).
- Outside of the Ravens and Browns, only three teams have a positive rushing EPA/play. I think I need to start comparing the matchups using NFL medians as the rushing median is -.06 EPA/play. The New York Giants lead the league with 5.6 rush yards per attempt. Jacksonville Jaguars have averaged 5.8 yards per rush in the last three games ranking second (Seattle and Baltimore are tied at 6.0 yards per rush).
- The Atlanta Falcons have been rushing the ball the second most only trialing the Philadelphia Eagles. Even though they have a -.027 EPA/play, that is a decent matchup to exploit. As I mentioned earlier, the league average is -.05 EPA/play for rushing plays.
- Detriot Lions rank second with 3.5 Yards Before Contact/attempt, trailing the Ravens who have Lamar Jackson. Even with a split in touches, both running backs can produce in fantasy football due to efficiency.
- Saquan Barkley could be in for a big day as the Jacksonville Jaguars are allowing the second most receptions (47) and yardage (332) to running backs. Couple that with the Giants averaging 32.7 rush attempts per game, Barkley has a decent shot at being the RB1 this week continuing his fantasy MVP campaign.
Hope these tidbits help you find some gems to start this week. Be sure to check out one-and-done leagues by following #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown on Twitter.
