Welcome to the updated EPA/play matchup chart for fantasy football in a new graph form! I think this helps visualize the positive matchups versus the negative matchups better. As a reminder, this is a matchup chart and not a team performance chart. For example, the Dolphins’ offense has a .233 pass EPA/play matchup advantage against the Detroit Lions’ defense based on median adjusted EPA/play data.
Week 8 Passing Game Tidbits
- The battle of Pennsylvania matches a very efficient offense that uses the run to set up its passing game, against a team struggling to pass the ball. Philadelphia is clicking on cylinders, ranking fourth in total EPA/play (combining both pass and rush); while leading the league with 8.2 yards a pass attempt. The Steelers are allowing a league-leading 11.9 yards per completion. One of the reasons the Eagles secondary is playing well is because they are allowing the lowest YAC so far this season (502 total YAC yards). The Pittsburgh Steelers rank third-lowest with a 14.2% pressure rate, tilting the favor more toward the Eagles’ side.
- Miami Dolphins will face the Detroit Lions and have the best EPA/play for passing plays. However, teams have only been attempting 32.8 pass attempts while the third-highest rush attempts at 30.8. Since Miami ranks fifth in 63.92% in passing percentage, I could see Tua and company yield lots of yardages. This is the offense I am targeting in any one-and-done fantasy football leagues like the #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown.
- Surprisingly, the LA Rams are averaging only 17.3 points per game this year; which has been 14.3 points per game in the last three weeks. One of the reasons is that Stafford has been sacked 22 times in six games. That ranks fifth most by team sacks allowed. The San Francisco 49ers are second in the NFL with a 27.6% pressure rate. Maybe the bye week helped the Rams’ coaches correct any issues.
- The Carolina Panthers have the worst Dropback EPA/play at -.200. However they play the Atlanta Falcons this week. The Falcons are the third worst, allowing a massive .157 EPA/play in passing. It will be interesting to see if the Carolina offense is able to take advantage of a bad Atlanta defense. Atlanta generates the least pressure rate in the league. Atlanta is giving up a league-leading 70.77% completion percentage. With PJ Walker starting, I am playing DJ Moore in several fantasy football leagues as he should be targeted heavily. He leads all wide receivers with a 101.7% WOPR which combines target and air yard share per team. Go get DJ Moore in your leagues.
- Irv Smith should continue to return good value as the Minnesota Vikings are fourth with 27 total targets to the Tight End position. Arizona Cardinals’ defense is allowing the most receptions and touchdowns to tight ends while allowing the second most fantasy points.
Week 8 Rushing Game Tidbits
- The New York Jets have a good rushing matchup against the New England Patriots who yield 4.9 yards per rush. However, not many teams attempt to rush against the NE Patriots’ defense for some reason; until last week, when the Bears ran the ball 45 times. If the New York Jets want to win this game, they should rely on newly acquired James Robinson and Michael Carter. If given the chance, both should return RB2 values in fantasy football.
- The Cleveland Browns should be able to run the ball against the Cincinnati Bengals who are giving up 5.4 yards per rush attempt. The biggest concern will be the Bengals going up big against the Browns. The Browns are second-worst allowing 11.8 per completion. So even though they have the best rush matchup, they may be game-scripted out of running the ball.
- The Rams have only allowed 625 yards per game so far. They have only allowed 23 receptions by running backs so far this season. Even if Christian McCaffrey plays, it could be tough sledding this week for him and the SF 49ers. However, CMC is CMC. He could manufacture offense even against a stingy defense. I think Deebo Sameul will benefit the most from extra attention to CMC.
- The New York Giants get one of the best matchups against the Seattle Seahawks, who are giving up a ton of yards on the ground this season. However, the Seahawks also get a juicy matchup. The NY Giants are allowing a league-leading 5.7 yards per rush attempt. Look for both Saqauon Barkley and Kenneth Walker to smash in this game. I will likely start both in any one-and-done fantasy football leagues like the #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown.
- Tennessee Titans get a juicy matchup against the Houston Texans who are allowing the most rush yards per game at 164.7 yards per game. Derrick Henry and company have slowly been getting better at running the ball. Look for a get-right spot here for Henry reasserting himself as an RB1.
Hope these tidbits help you find some gems to start this week. RBSDM is providing the data for the charts. Be sure to check out one-and-done fantasy football leagues by following #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown on Twitter.