In last week’s GameDay Edge fantasy football article a matchup chart was unveiled to see if we can attempt to pinpoint fantasy football boom candidates and sneaky starters. We saw the Browns could be successful running against the Bengals if they kept the Bengals offense in check. The Browns’ defense was up to the task and the Browns won in a blowout.
As a reminder, this is a matchup chart and not a team performance chart. For example, the Dolphins’ offense has a .233 pass EPA/play matchup advantage against the Detroit Lions’ defense based on median adjusted EPA/play data.
Week 9 Passing Game Tidbits
- The Kansas City passing offense leads the NFL with 16.4 passing first downs per game. The Tennessee Titans’ defense is giving up 7.0 yards per pass attempt. The Titans will try to control the clock and attempt to run the ball. The onus will be on the eighth-ranked Titans’ defense generating 24.9% pressure. Kansas City has the best EPA passing matchup of the week if the TItans’ pressure fails.
- The Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks game pits the top two team defenses allowing the most YAC yardage. The Cardinals’ offense is better in creating YAC but Seattle Seahawks’ offense has the highest completion percentage at 72.40%. This game should be the shootout of the week. This is the game I am targeting in any one-and-done fantasy football leagues like the #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown.
- The third-highest team allowing the most YAC yardage is the Baltimore Ravens. This could be the reason Baltimore traded for Pro-Bowler Roquan Smith. Let’s see if his presence helps the Ravens’ defense contain Alvin Kamara. Kamara is tied with Austin Ekeler with 28 receptions in the last three games and second with 56.7 fantasy points trailing only Kenneth Walker.
- The Green Bay Packers could not have asked for a better time to play the Detroit Lions. Almost every Detroit Lions’ game has been high scoring and this game is tied with the Seattle-Arizona and LAC-ATL games with the highest projected score of 49.5. These are the games I am targeting in any one-and-done fantasy football leagues like the #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown.
- It is surprising to see that the LA Rams versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers game has only a 42.5-point total. The LA Rams are averaging only 4.8 yards a play trailing only the Pittsburgh Steelers. Surprisingly, Tampa Bay ranks fourth-most with 14.5 incompletions per game. It may be worth benching Stafford and Brady if you have other options, especially in 1QB leagues.
Week 9 Rushing Game Tidbits
- Only the Philadelphia Eagles have a positive rush and pass EPA/play matchup; with the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons almost making the cut (slight negative rush EPA/play). Does this mean defenses are better at defending the rush or just that offenses are not effective running the ball in today’s passing league? Atlanta runs the third most rushes per game with 33.5 against the LAC that bleed yards to the running back position at 5.7 yards per rush. Their offense is set up well to score points against the Seahawks. They are a sneaky DFS league offense to play in Week 9 fantasy football.
- The Miami Dolphins are allowing the fourth-most rush yards to the quarterback position giving up 192 yards so far this season. Justin Fields is second with 424 rush yards behind only Lamar Jackson while being number one in rush attempts. He is a sneaky player to start in any one-and-done fantasy football league like the #BabyBowl and @lineupsowdown.
- If the Titans are to win the game, it will be due to their running backs. Not just rushing, but also receiving. Kansas City allows the most receptions (58) and yards (430) via the air to running backs. The Titans are fifth with a 24.3% RB target share.
- Joe Mixon is averaging only 11 rush attempts a game in the past three games but did garner 17 targets in the same span. The Carolina Panthers’ defense has allowed only 40 yards per rush in the same span. Mixon’s rush attempts should increase as the season moves forward but this week may not be optimal match-up-wise.
- Don’t look now but in the last three weeks, Travis Etienne has the most rush yards with 356 yards on only 48 rush attempts (ridiculous 7.42 rush YPA). Over the last three games, Kenneth Walker joins Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley as the only running backs with 20+ rush attempts.