The New Orleans Saints signed Derek Carr to a four year, $150 million contract this offseason.
Who would have thought that the Las Vegas Raiders would actually move on from franchise quarterback Derek Carr? Towards the end of the 2022 season, Carr was benched for the final two games. This all but signaled that the team was going to move on from the nine-year quarterback.
After attempting to trade Carr to the New Orleans Saints for a reported third-round pick, Carr opted to force a release. He had a no-trade clause in his deal with the Raiders, allowing him to decide his destiny in a trade. To make the matter even more hilarious was that the Raiders had no choice but to let Derek Carr go for free. I mean, if you were moving on from a quarterback, the last thing you would want to do is be on the hook to pay him $40.4 million in guaranteed money, right?
There was no official transaction made by the Raiders with QB Derek Carr today.
We’re now less than 24 hours away from a critical decision, as $40.4M of Carr’s contract will become guaranteed if he’s on the roster past 4 PM ET tomorrow.
If released, he can sign elsewhere ASAP.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) February 13, 2023
With Carr free in the wild after his release from the Raiders, he eventually found his way to the New Orleans Saints. He signed a four-year deal worth $150 million with $100 million guaranteed. As far as the Saints are concerned, this looks like an upgrade. They’ve moved on from veteran quarterback Andy Dalton (who somehow is still able to find landing spots as he’s reportedly signed with the Carolina Panthers). Some may feel that this could be a lateral move. However, there are benefits to having Derek Carr over Andy Dalton.
Same Same, But Different
Some fans may believe that Derek Carr and Andy Dalton share some similarities in their game – and career. And honestly, some of them can’t be ignored. Both quarterbacks are winless in the postseason; though Dalton had more appearances in the playoffs (if that means anything to you Bengals fans). Both players had losing seasons in 2023 with their respective teams.
For fantasy football managers, Andy Dalton didn’t provide much upside if you had to start him out of desperation during the 2022 season. Dalton averaged 12.4 fantasy points per game, ranking 32nd among fantasy quarterbacks. I’m not going to lie and say Derek Carr was much better; which was a shock considering he had Davante Adams as his WR1. Carr averaged 14.6 fantasy points per game for 2022.
There is one thing that Derek Carr brings to the table that Andy Dalton can’t. That’s his ability to get the ball downfield. We saw Carr link up with Adams several times downfield for big plays or touchdown scores last season. Dalton was a bit more reluctant to let it rip. He threw deep just 39 times for a 28.2% completion percentage on balls thrown 20+ yards or more. Derek Carr finished fifth in deep ball attempts, with 72 passes for a 31.9% completion percentage.
Carr’s ability to utilize the deep ball will be good for the Saints’ wide receivers. Especially when it comes to wide receiver Chris Olave; who should be on everyone’s radar heading into his second season in the NFL.
Believe it or not, Carr is actually pretty good in clutch situations too. According to FantasyData.com, Carr’s excelled in “Money Throws” or “passes that require exceptional skills or athletism as well as critical throws in clutch moments”. Carr ranked fifth in that category with 33 money throws on the season. In the same category, Dalton only managed to get 17, falling all the way down to 16th overall.
Another area where Carr should excel is his ability to get the ball to his tight ends and running backs. During the 2022 season, Carr targeted his lead running back Josh Jacobs 64 times. Dalton actually proved to be better at getting the ball to his running back Alvin Kamara, who saw 77 targets last season.
If you weren’t feeling confident about Carr targeting his running backs, this may be enough to ease your fear. Josh Jacobs finished 11th in targets among running backs for the 2022 season. Jamaal Williams could also benefit from some added targets; should Alvin Kamara miss time due to a suspension after being indicted on battery chargers stemming from his Pro Bowl assault case during the 2021 season.
Alvin Kamara and three others have been indicted for an alleged beating at a Las Vegas nightclub during last year’s Pro Bowl weekend pic.twitter.com/70lmipBSlX
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) February 16, 2023
As for tight ends, with Juwan Johnson signing his two-year, $12 million contract he should continue to be one of the focal points in the Saints’ offense. Last season, Johnson saw 65 targets with a 61.6% snap share amongst the Saints’ TE group, leading the group with 40.5 snaps per game. Johnson looks to be one of the hidden gems in this season’s tight-end group (and one of my favorite sleepers to target in 2023 fantasy football drafts).
The Wrap Up
Keep in mind, you shouldn’t be hoping Carr is going to win you games for fantasy. Unless you’re in a Superflex league – where you start two quarterbacks – there’s simply better options you can have. What you do want for Derek Carr in 2023 is to have better production with the pieces he has around him. The skill positions are dependent on what the quarterback, the leader, can do for them. If Carr can push past his limits and improve his game in a new system, he’ll have the offense clicking. That means the skill players will have bolstered value.
Carr is in a good position to do just that with the New Orleans Saints. There are some similarities to what he and Andy Dalton have done in the past, but Carr is the better quarterback now with the perfect opportunity to showcase that in 2023.
