Michael Thomas has just been ruled out for 12-16 weeks due to ankle surgery that happened in June. For those who just drafted him in fantasy football, I’m sorry for your loss. This timeline puts Thomas’ return to the field anywhere from Week 5-8. I expect Thomas to be on the PUP list before this season begins. This guarantees a minimum absence of six weeks. With the Saints bye being Week 6 and a probable PUP designation, my prediction is Thomas is out until Week 7-10.
For those who drafted Alvin Kamara, their smiles are shining bright. With Michael Thomas expected to miss half of the season, look for another career year from Super Kamario. How much of an increase in production can we expect? How does the quarterback competition affect his outcome? And is there such a scenario where Kamara receives too much of an oppurtunity, creating injury risk? I will answer these questions about Alvin Kamara as we run through his fantasy football expectations for the 2021 season.
Consistent With and Without
Whether or not Michael Thomas was on the field, Kamara still averaged 18 touches/game. This does not include his rookie year when Mark Ingram was still on the team. Excluding rookie year numbers, Alvin Kamara has totaled over 250 touches per year.
Last year, Saints’ rushing attempts accounted for 48% of the offensive plays. With Thomas hurt, Drew Brees retired, and Emmanuel Sanders (the former WR2 on the team) gone, I am looking for the Saints running attack to conquer 60% of the touches for the first half of the season.
Expect 20-25 touches/game from Kamara himself with Latavius Murray tagging in with 10-15 touches/game. I’m drafting both of these backs wherever I can get them right now. Murray’s ADP according to Sleeper PPR leagues is currently 160.4. One could make an argument to take Kamara at #1 in redraft leagues this year as well.
Quarterback Controversy?
I believe there’s a genuine competition at the quarterback position in New Orleans. With Thomas’ injury news, I believe the Saints need more creativity than ever in order to win games. Taysom Hill proved worthy while completing almost 73% of his passes and having a 3-1 record across four games. Is he a prolific passer? I don’t think so; but with his athleticism and ability to get the ball to the right guys (i.e Alvin Kamara), the Saints can hold their own in the NFC South.
In the four games Hill started he had trouble targeting Kamara, but eventually came around and got him the ball 10 times out of the backfield in their loss against Philly. As much as Hill likes to take things into his own hands, I am confident the coaching staff trusts Hill to manage the game and get the ball to Kamara for him to take over games.
A quick note on Jameis Winston.
I am still in on Kamara, maybe even more than with Hill, if Winston is the starter. Winston is more of a pure passer and has the tendency to throw to the running back. I still have faith if Winston becomes the starter because of his raw talent and check down capability. My projections don’t falter if Winston comes in. At the most, take away some work on the ground and add more targets for Kamara with Winston under center.
2021 Fantasy Football Outlook
As said previously, I expect Kamara to have 20-25 touches per game for at least the first half of the season. He has averaged 18/game for most of his career, so I am expecting an uptick in volume. I do not believe for one second that anyone was ever worried about Kamara’s production.
Some may be concerned over touchdown regression because of his six touchdown game against Minnesota that bumped his average from 1 to 1.4. As a reminder, Kamara was still the RB1 on the season way before that game ever took place.
With a natural rise in volume for Kamara coming, I am expecting over 300 touches for the first time in his career. This is going to propel Kamara into a potentially the top-3 running back once again. You can almost guarantee over 100 targets with his yards/reception towering over his current average of 8.7. Also expect him to carry the rock over 200 times.
Being as efficient as he is, look for big plays to meet his yards/carry average (5). As far as touchdowns go, I expect nothing less than one a game. Kamara has the ability and opportunity to push for 20+ touchdowns this season, even though its not in my current projections. Speaking of projections, let’s take a look.
My 2021 Alvin Kamara Projections: 209 Rushes, 1,057 Yards, 11 TDs. 118 Targets, 92 Receptions, 919 Yards, 7 TDs
The argument for Kamara as the overall RB1 in fantasy football is more valid than it has ever been. Grabbing Kamara at any point in your draft, even first overall, is acceptable by me for this season. With a major injury to MT and a slew of bottom-tier pass catchers (sorry Adam Trautman, but we just don’t know yet), Kamara is poised to make it on the big stage once again.
