Officially, the fantasy football playoffs are here! That means the decisions get tougher on managers as the window narrows with each passing week. You no longer get a cake matchup, as every team in the playoffs has earned their ticket into the Big Dance. One misstep in setting your lineup, and you could be going home for the winter.
I am giving you five players I expect to fall short of their fantasy football projections from Sleeper. Some of the names listed are fantasy football superstars, and while you will not be able to bench them, it will help temper expectations for your upcoming playoff matchups. Best of luck to everyone this week. I hope your team advances to Week 16.
QB: Patrick Mahomes 24.53 Projected Points
Week 15 starts off with a doozy. The @Chiefs at @chargers . With Patrick Mahomes under center. Chiefs have never lost a road divisional game, a perfect 11-0. Only Joe Montana (20) & Peyton Manning (12) have had longer divisional road winning streaks since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger
— trey wingo (@wingoz) December 15, 2021
I’m not too fond of this matchup for either quarterback on Sunday. While the Chargers are not only a run funnel defense, Los Angeles has not been a good defense against the run all season. The Chargers defense has improved since the week eight bye. However, they still rank 20th in Rush EPA/Play after the bye week. At that same time, the Chiefs offense is 5th in the Rush EPA/Play since week eight. We call this a bad matchup, which Kansas City will exploit. Add in that it is a quick turnaround to play on Thursday night, giving the teams little time to prepare. I like the Chiefs rushing attack in this matchup. Patrick Mahomes is still a force, but I do not see him surpassing his projected total for fantasy football.
RB: Alvin Kamara 20.76 Projected Points
Joe Mixon usage in Week 14:
– zero third down or two-minute offensive snaps
– ran a route on just 15 of 40 dropbacks
– on the field for 1 of 5 red zone plays pic.twitter.com/12yRaWMnrn— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 13, 2021
Alvin Kamara has been a different running back this season with the Saints. But, it has to do with his overall usage this season. In 2021 Kamara is averaging seven more carries and one less catch than his career numbers. In Kamara’s last three seasons combined, he saw an opportunity share of 61.9%. This season it has spiked to almost 80%.
The Saints are passing less, leading to a spike in rushing attempts for Kamara. I bring that up because the Buccaneers are a pass funnel defense that has only allowed two games over 100+ rushing yards. On top of that, the Saints rushing EPA/attempt is 27th in the NFL. Kamara needs to channel some of his past receiving performances to beat his fantasy football projections, as he will not have much success on the ground against the Buccaneers front.
WR: Terry McLaurin 14.87 Projected Points
Highest coverage grade over last 5 weeks (min. 100 coverage snaps):
1. Darius Slay – 91.0 🛑 pic.twitter.com/2akXPfqoqN
— PFF Bet (@PFF_Bet) December 14, 2021
Can we please get Terry McLaurin an upgrade to the quarterback position? He once again has the issue of dealing with the subpar quarterback play from Taylor Heinicke. Add in a corner in Darius Slay, who is back to his shutdown ways, allowing a combined 21 yards in his last four games. Slay is creating problems for any wide receiver lining up against him, even one as talented as F1. it is not just Slay, as the Eagles allowed the 3rd fewest fantasy football points to wide receivers. The Football team has no one else to throw to besides McLaurin enabling the coordinator to take him away this week. I do not see F1 reaching his projections this week.
TE: T.J. Hockenson/Detroit Starting TE 11.99 Projected Points
This Week's TE Matchups:
The Good: Ricky Seals-Jones, Hooper/Njoku, Hunter Henry, Kelce, Gesicki
The Difficult: Doyle, Hockenson, Uzomah, Pitts, Freiermuth, Conklin pic.twitter.com/OzVFHwknKe— Kevin Ivers (@Kevin_Ivers10) December 14, 2021
The Lions held Hock out of the Week 14 contest due to a hand injury. As a result, there is uncertainty if Hockenson can go this week. If he does, he will be at less than 100% going against a Cardinals pass defense that ranks 31st in EPA Allowed/Pass.
The Cardinals have only allowed 50+ yards to an opposing tight end once. That was in Week 9 against the George Kittle. The Cardinals defense is good against tight ends, and Hockenson will have difficulty reaching his fantasy football projection this week.
Flex: Aaron Jones 17.11 Projected Points
Aaron Jones vs Bears
😎 65 total yards
😎 2 TDs
😎 21.5 PPR fantasy points pic.twitter.com/ICgKnGOdNh— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 13, 2021
I love Aaron Jones, the player, but I do not know what is happening in Green Bay. The usage is incredibly concerning, as Jones handled a season-low 34% of the running back opportunities and saw his third consecutive game under a 50% snap share. However, Jones did manage to save his night by finding the end zone twice on Sunday night. Baltimore is a bad matchup for opposing running backs as they are bottom-6 in EPA/Rush allowed and 30th in fantasy points over average to running backs. With how Green Bay uses this backfield, Jones is a massive fade at his current projection.
Jesse Moeller
Jesse Moeller is a fascinating character. By day, he's a restaurant manager, but during his free time, he transforms into a fantasy football analyst. He's been playing fantasy football since 1999, which means he's been around the block a few times. But his passion for the game has never waned. Jesse is a devoted husband to his wife Andrea, whom he's been married to for five years. They have a lovely daughter Cecilia, who is now four years old. Jesse's journey into content creation began with The League Winners in 2021, and he hasn't looked back since. Dynasty is his passion, and his love for the game is infectious. Jesse is a true degenerate who loves the fantasy football and the community that supports it.