Being reunited with Joe Burrow is great for Ja’Marr Chase’s NFL future, but he isn’t going to be a WR1 for fantasy football in 2021.
As I write this, I already anticipate a massive amount of blowback, but hear me out. Long-term I think Cincinnati is great for Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow. Chase was my WR1 of the 2021 draft class, and that hasn’t changed. But while I think the future looks great for the rookie, I’m hesitant to believe he will instantly produce in his inaugural season for fantasy football purposes. There’s a few reasons why.
Historically, it Doesn’t Happen
While doing research to see at what age players start to drop off (credit to Mike Tagliere), I started to look at the opposite spectrum and determine when players first become relevant. I saw something stick out to me, especially when considering the type of hype younger players receive. What stuck out was the rarity of a 21-year old WR producing Top-5, and Top-12 numbers.
No WR in their age-21 year has produced a Top-5 season in fantasy football, and only 5.3% (pre-Justin Jefferson‘s 2020 season) have produced Top-12 seasons. Ja’Marr Chase will be 21 years old during his rookie season.
I wanted to take it one step further and look at wide receivers selected in the 1st Round of the NFL Draft for the past 10 years and see how they did in their inaugural season in standard, PPR, and Half-PPR formats (2011-14 scoring was standard and PPR – there was no Half-PPR data available). Here’s what I found:
Since 2011, there have been 37 wide receivers selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Of those 37, only three (8.1%) have had a Top-12 finish in fantasy football during their rookie season in any given format. Those players are Odell Beckham Jr (all), Justin Jefferson (all), and Mike Evans (STD) – Evans finished 13th in PPR.
In regards to Top-24 finishes (again, in any given format) in their rookie season, the number was slightly better. Nine out of 37 (24.3%) qualified this time. 12 of 37 (32.4) finished in the Top-36.
There were more finishes outside of the Top-100 (11) than those who finished in the Top-24. Mike Evans was the only wide receiver selected in the Top-10 of the NFL Draft (in the past 10 years) to also have a WR1 season in his rookie year.
The Team Will be Better
With Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon healthy, the offense should start to flow again. The additions on defense shore up a unit in need of improvement. The signs point to the Bengals being a better team than they were in 2020.
In terms of offensive snap totals, the Bengals had a -238 differential among snaps when they were winning, compared to when they were losing. They were the only team in their division with a negative differential. That number was 20th-worst in the NFL last season. It could have been worse if not for Higgins and Boyd, as well as the defense playing better than expected.
Of course, when a team is losing it means the they’re throwing the ball that much more. The Bengals posted a +182 differential of pass plays when they were losing, compared to winning. That ranked as the 12th-highest in the NFL during the 2020 season.
Some people see A.J. Green having 100 targets in 2020 and will eagerly plug-and-play Chase into that role, with greater production. That’s not how vacant targets work though, and is a bad way to assess how the offense will potentially unfold. For what it’s worth, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins both received 100 targets on the season; and there’s no reason to suggest those numbers drop significantly in another year under Zac Tayler’s system.
On top of that, Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine will see expanded roles as well. Perine will be replacing Giovanni Bernard, and is an underrated 3rd-down running back. Mixon on the other hand is a staple of the Bengals offense, and will hope to play a full slate in 2021 (he only played six games in 2020).
The Bengals did a great job of adding to their defense, too. They invested heavily on the defensive line in the draft, selecting four DT/DEs (while also adding two offensive linemen). The Bengals were also players in free agency, adding again to their defensive line with pass-rushing stud Trey Hendrickson and attempting to tap back into the potential of Larry Ogunjobi.
The Bengals also signed Chidobe Awuzie and Mike Hilton to the secondary in free agency; a position that became a dire need after so many injuries occurred during the 2020 season (along with Eli Apple for a solid depth piece).
The point I’m trying to make is that the Bengals aren’t going to be playing from behind as much as they did last season, and they will be a better team (barring any injury to a significant player(s)).
Final Thoughts
As I stated at the beginning of this article, I have complete faith in Ja’Marr Chase. I think he will become a dominant receiver for years, and bolsters a Cincinnati offense that is looking to become quite potent. That being said, I don’t think 2021 is the year we see that.
I could be wrong, and I will be happy to eat the crow if I am. But the data doesn’t support it, and the crowded WR room clouds projections in his first year.
2021 Prediction: 88 targets, 61 receptions for 812 yards, and 5 TDs.
