Fantasy football is full of unknowns. But one thing is certain each year. There will be a debate about whether Joe Mixon will finish as an RB1 or not. FantasyPros ECR currently has Mixon ranked as the 21st player overall and the RB13. According to the latest ADP data on FantasyPros, Mixon is currently being drafted as the 19th player off the board and the RB13. So not only experts, but also the fantasy football community as a whole do not believe that Mixon will finish as a top-12 RB. The rest of this article will outline why I believe that Joe Mixon will be a top-12 RB in 2021.
Early Career
The Bengals selected the highly productive RB out of Oklahoma in the 2nd round in the 2017 NFL Draft. As a rookie, Mixon was thrust into a heavy workload. However, he failed to generate 1,000 total yards, leading fantasy football managers who drafted Mixon as the RB20 to be disappointed. Fantasy managers drafted Mixon as a top-14 RB in the following season and they were rewarded for doing so.
In 2018, Mixon finished as a top-10 RB in most scoring formats. This came on the back of a season that he rushed for 1,168 yards and eight touchdowns. He added another 296 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. Not only was he very productive, but he was efficient and explosive.
Mixon’s 20 breakaway runs of 20 yards or more ranked 2nd in the league. His 5.2 yards per carry ranked 25th in the NFL. Mixon’s breakout season came when the Bengals had one of the worst offensive lines in the league. According to PFF, the Bengals had the 27th ranked offensive line in the 2018 season.
Mixon followed up his breakout season with another highly productive season. Again, behind one of the worst offensive lines according to PFF. In the 2019 season, Mixon again finished as a top-10 RB depending on your leagues scoring.
With back-to-back productive seasons, the Bengal’s gave Mixon a 4-year extension just before the start of the 2020 season.
Mixon’s 2020 Season
With a new contract extension signed, Mixon got off to a slow start in the 2020 season. It was not until Week 4 that Mixon really had a standout game. In that game, Mixon had 31 touches for 181 total yards and three touchdowns against the Jaguars. However, Mixon suffered foot sprain in Week 6 and missed the remainder of the season.
But in those six games, Mixon had a decent season on a per game basis. Mixon had more touches, yards, rushing touchdowns, targets, receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns per game than his career average. Fantasy football managers that drafted Mixon in 2020 were happy to start the season, but were disappointed with the end result due to the injury that sidelined him. Like in previous years, the Bengals were near the bottom of the offensive line rankings according to PFF. Poor line play did not prevent Mixon from having a better than average season in 2020 on a per game basis.
2021 Fantasy Football Expectations
Entering the 2021 season, we again find ourselves questioning whether Joe Mixon will finish as a top-12 RB or not. Even among the League Winners writers that have completed Bengals Projections, there is a bit of disagreement. We currently have Mixon projected between roughly 957-1400 rushing yards, and between 6-9 rushing touchdowns.
I personally feel that Mixon will land somewhere near the middle of both of those. Our projections have Mixon getting between 276 and 430 receiving yards. In his first three seasons, Mixon had roughly 290 receiving yards these projections all seem within the range of outcomes.
But like always, the biggest question about Mixon aside from his health is the offensive line. This offseason, many analysts were expecting the Bengals to add one of the top lineman in the draft. Instead, the Bengals used the pick on Ja’Marr Chase. But after selecting Chase, the Bengals used multiple picks on lineman and added veteran Riley Reiff through free agency. Even though the Bengals did not draft Penei Sewell, they still were able to make significant improvements to the offensive line.
The Bengals offensive line as a whole gave up 0 sacks this preseason. None. Nada.
Since 2013, that has never happened.
For reference, 2019 OL gave up 7 sacks in the preseason.
— Andrew Russell (@PFF_AndrewR) August 30, 2021
Conclusion
When looking for a top-12 running back, Mixon checks a lot of the boxes. As the primary back for the Bengals, Mixon will be in line for a significant workload. With his efficient running style and his usage in the passing game, Mixon is not reliant on touchdowns to have fantasy-relevant weeks. His breakaway play ability increases his upside in weekly matchups.
The biggest questions for Mixon are always his health and the play of the offensive line. With nearly a full year to recover from his foot sprain, there is no reason to be worried about Mixon’s injuries. This offseason the Bengals made some improvements to their offensive line. But even if they did not make any improvements, Mixon has had multiple top-12 fantasy football seasons with poor play from the offensive line.
Mixon is in line for a great season and there is no reason for him to not finish as a top-12 running back. Fantasy football managers that used their 2nd or 3rd round picks will be rewarded for having faith in the talented running back.
