After an incredible rookie season, can Jonathan Taylor repeat that fantasy football performance in 2021?
Two First Names, One Workhorse
In fantasy football I live by the equation that talent+ volume/opportunity = success. Jonathan Taylor is a prime example of this. In 2020 behind a terrific offensive line and the easiest schedule for running backs according to Schedule Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) Taylor finished the season as the 6th overall running back in PPR (points per reception) leagues.
Taylor began his rookie season third on the depth chart behind veterans Marlon Mack and Nyhiem Hines. Unfortunately, Mack went down with a ruptured Achilles in week 1 and missed the remainder of the season. Taylor was thrust into the lineup immediately, providing a large impact proving why he was a coveted prospect coming out of college.
The Indianapolis Colts drafted Jonathan Taylor with the 9th pick in the 2nd-round out of Wisconsin in 2020. At Wisconsin he enjoyed three straight seasons (2017-19) of more than 2,000 total yards. He also packed the ability to break explosive plays. In each of his three seasons, he had 61 rushing attempts of at least 10 yards. That explosiveness translated to the NFL as he managed 15 carries of 15 or more yards, tied for the second most in the league with Nick Chubb and behind only the man beast Derrick Henry!
Most runs of 15+ yards in 2020 (RBs)
💥 Derrick Henry – 21
💥 Nick Chubb – 15
💥 Jonathan Taylor – 15
💥 Dalvin Cook – 13 pic.twitter.com/c1u7z2Xbkl— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) February 25, 2021
Abundant Opportunity
In 2020, the Colts offense was led by now-retired QB Phillip Rivers. Rivers had a gun slinger mentality his entire career and that lead to many opportunities for Taylor to display his three-down potential. He led the Indy backfield with a 50% snap share. The other half of snaps were divided between pass catching specialist Nyheim Hines and backup Jordan Wilkins.
At quarterback, Rivers made a living off of checking down to his RB’s, helping to create fantasy football powerhouses. Whether it was back with the San Diego Chargers and Danny Woodhead, Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson, top pick Melvin Gordon, or eventually opening our eyes to the beauty that is Austin Ekeler today.
With the Colts last season, Rivers targeted the RB position at the 4th highest rate in the league, 126 times. Taylor accounted for 41 of those targets which is a 33% share while Hines had a whopping 77 targets (63% share), good for the third most at the RB position in the NFL. Taylor also had 268 total touches, the 8th most in the NFL. In an impressive rookie campaign he managed to play in 15 games and account for 1,468 total yards and 12 total TD’s. That was the 6th most yards in the league ahead of names like Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, and Aaron Jones.
A New Sherriff in Town
On February 18, the Eagles and Colts agreed to a trade bringing 28-year-old Carson Wentz to take over the QB room in Indy. In return the Eagles acquired the Colts 3rd-round pick this year and a conditional 2nd-round selection in 2022. The conditional pick becomes a 1st-round pick if Wentz plays 75% of the Colts snaps this coming season.
The move results in reuniting Wentz with head coach Frank Reich, formerly the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia from 2016 and 2017. In 2017 Wentz was in MVP discussions before tearing his ACL in week 14. The hope in Indianapolis is Wentz will reignite his career with his former coach.
A story in two graphics: why the Eagles were motivated to trade Carson Wentz and why the Colts believe it's a worthwhile investment to acquire him. pic.twitter.com/coXwKLKyZR
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) February 19, 2021
Taylor Will Be A Coveted Fantasy Asset
The direct impact the acquisition of Wentz has on Jonathan Taylor is interesting. I am predicting there will most likely be less targets to be had out of the backfield. Already competing for receptions with Hines, we may see a dip in Taylor’s receiving numbers. In Wentz’ five seasons he has averaged 98 pass attempts to running backs per season. In comparison, of all NFL teams last season that number would be in the bottom half of the league.
I’m not saying Taylor can’t produce great numbers without catching the ball but not everyone is Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee targeted the RB a measly league low 58 times and still produced the 3rd best RB in PPR. That is an extremely difficult feat.
In Taylor’s favor his strength of schedule once again looks to be promising in 2021. He’ll have 11 games versus opponents that were in the top half of the league in most fantasy points allowed to RB’s in 2020. Marlon Mack is an unrestricted free agent so Taylor’s competition for touches will only be Hines again. Hines is more of a compliment than an impediment though. If Wentz can bounce back with his new team, Taylor will be a direct beneficiary.
In 2020, the Colts had the 8th best team run block percentage in the NFL at 72%. As a team they averaged 124.8 rushing yards a game, good for the 11th most in the NFL despite the numerous injuries affecting this o-line group. 10-year veteran left-tackle Anthony Castonzo announced his retirement in January. As a result, many draft experts are predicting the Colts address the offensive line, bolstering this group in the off-season.
To wrap things up, in fantasy football dynasty formats he is among the Top-5 players overall. Taylor’s current ADP is 11 and I’m a buyer at that spot. As of today I will have Taylor ranked around the likes of fellow RB’s Nick Chubb, and Austin Ekeler. With many dominoes still to fall this off-season, trusting in Jonathan Taylor to succeed is something we can do with confidence.
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