Fantasy Football: Josh Allen is a Dynasty Sell

Josh Allen had a magical 2020 season as he led the Buffalo Bills to a 13-3 record, AFC Championship appearance, and finished second in MVP voting behind Aaron Rodgers. Allen also finished as the number one quarterback in fantasy football. There are some custom scoring leagues where Rodgers outscored him, but in standard fantasy football leagues across the board (FantasyPros, ESPN, Yahoo, C.B.S., Sleeper), Allen was the top dog in 2020.

Allen is currently the 1.02 in DLF Superflex startup drafts. Given how he played in 2020, that ADP makes sense; as the only player going ahead of him is the GOAT himself, Patrick Mahomes.

Rewind the clock a year, and Josh Allen was going at pick 27, QB8. Is Allen worth that price as the clear #2 pick in Superflex? Does it depend on if you feel this magical season is a once-in-career outlier, or is this a prequel of things to come for Allen? Let’s break down what happened and see why I consider him a dynasty sell at his current price.

Allen in 2018-2019 had a completion percentage of 56.3%. Then in 2020, Josh Allen exploded for a completion percentage of 69.2%, a career-high good enough for 4th in the NFL.

Did you know that his expected completion percentage (or xComp%) was only 64.6%? Having a +4.6 net difference was second among quarterbacks, behind only Deshaun Watson. Josh Allen took a significant step forward the following year, as his 2020 completion percentage was higher than any season by countless Hall of Famers; including Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner.

So what changed for him? The Bills upgraded the talent around Allen and changed the scheme to fit the talent. The team ran 155 plays with four or more wide receivers on the field, while they ran just 14 plays with this same personnel the previous two seasons combined.

This change in scheme allowed Josh Allen to set franchise records in passing yards, completions, and touchdowns in a season. The Bills also had the 3rd highest first down pass rate of the last five seasons!

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New Approach

Buffalo’s transition to a pass-heavy scheme truly paid off handsomely in 2020. The Bills tailored the offense to their strengths while minimizing the weakness of the offense. That weakness was the rushing attack, as it did very little to help the Bills win this past season.

The offensive line was Dr. Jekyll when the team passed, and Mr. Hyde when the team ran. The most apparent stat to show this is the Bills ranking 4th in Pass Block Win Rate and 29th in Pass Rush Win Rate. The Bills’ inability to run for much of the year led the coaching staff to invest in a strategy centered around play-action more than they’ve used in previous years. It allowed Allen to finish third in passing grade on play-action plays.

So What’s the Problem?

Will Allen and the Bills passing attack continue to perform at such a high level? My answer is a clear no, as 2020 was the perfect blend for Allen’s success. The team had the second-best game script in the NFL, the addition of premium receiving talent (Mr. Stefon Diggs), inability to run successfully, lack of continuity along the line, and some luck factoring in to create the perfect year for Allen. Let’s elaborate on why all these things matter.

Game Script

Why is a positive game script necessary? It allows a coordinator the freedom to call plays that they have the most faith in working. In negative game script situations, quarterbacks face more pressure and coverages designed to take away from what makes you victorious. In negative game scripts, will the play-action passes be successful when the defense knows what you are doing? I think you know the answer to that question.

Premium Talent

Remember how the fantasy football community simultaneously decided to fade both Stefon Diggs and DeAndre Hopkins due to the narrative around receivers struggling on new teams? I remember as I was one of the many who did. Like fantasy managers, defenses will adjust to this current scheme the Bills run. Do not count on defenses to make that same mistake with Buffalo in 2021.

Run the Ball

Coach McDermott expressed his displeasure at the Bills’ inability to run all season long. Despite their struggles, the Bills still committed to run the ball in 2020 as they rushed on 40.8% of snaps for the year, even though both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss were bottom 10 in the NFL in rushing yards before contact per attempt. The line did not create openings for either running back to find space, and defenders consistently met them at the line of scrimmage. It was mentioned as a major priority going into 2021, and the Bills will run more.

All for One

The offensive line was a patchwork group through the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the Bills set a starting five to run out each week. With Buffalo bringing back all five starters in 2021, this group’s continuity will allow for improvement, as will the run blocking as a whole. Expect the Bills run-pass ratio to even out moving forward.

Lucky You Say

Allen continued to throw the ball downfield and was helped out by having better weapons on the outside, and some good fortune. Allen had an accuracy rating 17th in the league, 17th in true completion percent, 2nd in danger plays, 7th in touchdown rate, and 8th in interceptable passes. That tells a story to me that regression is on its way to Buffalo next season.

Deal or No Deal

I am not expecting Allen to fall off a cliff next year entirely. I expect his numbers to even out, similar to the regression Lamar Jackson experienced in 2020. It will not be as steep of a decline, but a drop is coming that will push Allen into the middle QB1 range.

At his current price, I would sell high on Allen to enhance my overall roster. His value will never be this high in dynasty again. It is the long-term move I believe will greatly benefit your fantasy football dynasty roster moving forward.