As we get closer to draft season for fantasy football, it is time to pay attention to ADP (average draft position). I typically look at Fantasy Pros because they take ADP from a number of sites, rather than rely on the ADP of a single host; since that can be more skewed based on their default rankings.
Using ADP you can identify value players you want to target. Or it can help you identify players to avoid. I previously wrote about how the top 2 RBs for the Ravens and Cowboys both offer values at different parts of the draft.
This article however will focus on guys going much later in drafts. Or even not drafted at all.
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Tip
Drafting early in the offseason has its risks. But there are also some steps you can take to have some major swings in the positive direction. There are a lot of late round or undrafted players that have the potential for massive value jumps. My plan is to look for RBs that are an injury away from a potential starting job. My fantasy football league does not require me to draft a full lineup. Because of that, I always lean towards skipping over the kicker position in favor of a a high upside RB.
If your fantasy football league allows you to leave the draft without drafting all positions, you should skip over the kicker position. Instead of a kicker, I always try to grab a RB that could end up with the starting job. Even an RB2 in the majority of fantasy leagues scores more than most kickers in a given week. Even more importantly, an RB2 will score you more points than a waiver wire RB most weeks. So drafting that RB2 before they are available to the rest of your league is advantageous.
Hitting on a late round running back in the draft can be one of the biggest advantages in fantasy football. A few years ago it was Alvin Kamara. Then it was James Robinson. Last year it was Elijah Mitchell.
The Candidates
D’Onta Foreman (Carolina Panthers, ADP 174)
Christian McCaffrey is not the perfect picture of health. He has missed significant time due to injuries in each of the last two seasons. The primary replacement in each of the last two seasons rushed for over 600 yards and at least 5 touchdowns.
This season D’Onta Foreman could be the back that would benefit most from a McCaffrey injury. Foreman has had injury issues himself, but he has had several years to recover from his Achilles injury. Just last season, Foreman rushed for 566 yards with 3 touchdowns. This was in just nine games played, proving that he is capable of carrying the ball somewhat effectively. With injury concerns for CMC, the Panthers may even try and manage his work more in 2022. This would open the door for Foreman to have a more regular workload week to week.
What if D’Onta Foreman has a regular role in the Carolina Panthers offense?
— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls) April 22, 2022
(Including goal line work…)
pic.twitter.com/PtCaZvAuUZ
Foreman’s biggest downfall is his lack of work in the passing game. In 2021, Foreman had a career high of 9 receptions for 123 yards. I would expect other RBs to get the majority of the pass-catching snaps, but Foreman could have some involvement.
Foreman is worth a last round pick in your early fantasy football drafts. Best case, you have a RB who could turn into an RB2 or flex option and you likely know what you have before the season starts.
Hassan Haskins (Tennessee Titans, ADP 237)
Haskins, the Titans 4th round pick, is currently listed as the RB3 on their depth chart. He is only behind only Derrick Henry and Dontrell Hilliard. I think that Haskins was drafted to be the Derrick Henry replacement in case of injury. While Henry missed time due to injury in 2021, Hilliard and the other RBs all were able to show some flashes in the run-heavy offense. But none were given the same amount of work as Henry.
This season, the Titans may not be as run heavy this season. But with a lack of passing options they are going to be forced to stick to relying on that part of the game.
Haskins is a 6’-1”, 220lb RB who had 270 rushes for 1327 yards and 20 touchdowns in his last college season. He is a grinder who is capable of carrying the ball for an entire game and is the perfect replacement for Henry in this offense if he misses any time in 2022. Even Henry himself likes what he sees in Haskins.
Hassan Haskins working to carve out a role behind Derrick Henry
Haskins is the perfect last round pick if you draft prior to Week 3 of the preseason. If Henry gets injured during the preseason, Haskins will have a huge jump in value and can easily be plugged into your roster.
Haskins will most likely be cuttable prior to the start of the season if Henry does not get injured. You can drop Haskins to get a kicker if he doesn’t gain value or you can drop your next worst player to grab your kicker if Haskins earns the starting role due to a Henry injury.
Matt Breida (New York Giants, ADP 291)
I am not as convinced on this one, but I wanted to make sure to mention him. Breida is currently listed as the 2nd string RB for the Giants. With Saquon Barkley’s injury history it will be hard to have faith he will be on the field for the entire fantasy football season. Last season when Saquon was not on the field, fantasy managers got a couple decent weeks out of Devontae Booker.
Matt Breida also has not been a picture of health. But with your last round pick you get a couple of startable weeks out of him it is worth it.
Breida has not rushed for over 100 yards in a single game since the 2019 season when he played for the 49ers. But there was a time not that long ago that he had over 1000 all purpose yards in just 13 games. He was one of the fastest players in the league, and whenever he got the ball an explosive play was possible.
Here’s the fastest run in the NFL from 2019 by Matt Breida, newest Giants RB!
— Justin Penik (@JustinPenik) March 21, 2022
pic.twitter.com/JCsQKKfVG3
The Giants currently have Breida listed as the RB2. Breida is the first in line to take over for Barkley if he gets injured and misses any time. If this happens, fantasy managers that drafted Breida will be in for several weeks of a potential starting RB. Like the others on this list you can drop him if you can’t stash him on your bench.
Conclusion
Some of the other guys I would be considering with my late round picks in early fantasy football drafts are Brian Robinson, Rex Burkhead, Snoop Conner, and Boston Scott. With shallow depth charts, these guys are all in line for work early in the season if the players ahead of them have any issues during camp.
The guys listed in this article should be in line for big workloads if the starter ahead of them get injured during preseason. And if the starter stays healthy they are not even guaranteed to be active on game days so they are easily droppable.
