New and veteran fantasy football players are always looking for an edge over their leaguemates. Whether they’re scalping for the next best tight end, trading up to get a top three running back, or stacking later picks to ensure their team is injury proof and filled with value. Whatever players are doing, it’s to win the coveted championship. For fantasy players that are new to the game, you may be a bit trigger happy when it comes to getting the name value on some players.
We all love Christian McCaffrey or Travis Kelce because they are a hot commodity when it comes to making a difference on your team, but what about the quarterback position? Names like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, maybe even Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray are all big names going early in fantasy football drafts. Ask yourself this question before you dive in: Is the ‘value’ worth it?
It’s Just A Name
There is nothing more fun in fantasy football than to have the big name quarterback on your team. Seeing Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen on your opponents roster could give you the shakes, so why not have them for yourself? Of course, they will perform great for your team. But when taking a look at the numbers there are plenty of guys to choose from.
Let’s start with the big shots. Here’s a list of high ADP quarterbacks from 2020 with their final fantasy finish:
- Josh Allen QB1: 397 points
- Kyler Murray QB3: 382 points
- Patrick Mahomes QB4: 375 points
- Deshaun Watson QB5: 368 points
- Russell Wilson QB6: 366 points
- Lamar Jackson: QB10: 332 points
All six of these players had good, or even great, seasons. Some finished below expectation (like Lamar Jackson), and others rose to the occasion such as Josh Allen. Regardless of finish, these six were without a doubt included in everyone’s top seven quarterbacks before the season started. If you’re wondering who the missing player is, Dak Prescott is your guy. Now let’s take a look at some quarterbacks people forgot about before the 2020 season started.
Rising From the Dead
Many analysts and fantasy football players alike tend to forget the talent available later in the drafts because past year’s performances have left a stain in our heart. There is plenty of talent available later in fantasy drafts to help out the quarterback position. Let’s look at a few more names that went later in drafts, but still helped your fantasy team tenfold:
- Aaron Rodgers QB2: 384 points
- Tom Brady QB7: 346 points
- Ryan Tannehill QB8: 345 points
- Justin Herbert QB9: 335 points
- Kirk Cousins QB11: 310 points
- Matt Ryan QB12: 287 points
All of these players were drafted in the 8th round or later in last year’s drafts, yet all of them ended up as a QB1 on the year! The amount of value that is stashed in the back half of drafts due to lack of experience or previous performances is nothing short of a gold mine; and this year it is the same. There are five quarterbacks I am looking at that are going late in drafts with a high chance of being a QB1 in the 2021 season.
The Underdogs
Number 5: Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts had a lackluster handful of games at the end of last year. His completion percentage was sporadic and was way too inconsistent to be on this list. There’s just one more thing; the rushing upside! Jalen Hurts averaged 68 rushing yards a game over his four starts last year and totalled three rushing touchdowns. In a 17 game pace, Hurts could have 1,156 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. That alone could make him a top-12 running back. Add in the passing work and clean up the inconsistencies, Jalen Hurts could be a homerun in the 10th round of your draft.
Number 4: Tom Brady
Tom Brady is a constant reminder that you’re never too old to follow your dreams. This is an easy one since the Buccaneers brought back all 22 starters from their Super Bowl winning roster. Brady is going in the 8th or 9th round and is poised to put up another 4,000 yard and 40 touchdown season. All of this after finishing as the QB8 this past season, which is nothing short of incredible; and you can expect him to do that again with the same cast coming back.
Number 3: Daniel Jones
Daniel Jones was anything other than a fantasy football rock star in 2020. He showed flashes in his rookie year, but ultimately fell into the sophomore slump in year two. (I have another article really detailing Daniel Jones as a super late sleeper so if you’re a truther like me head on over here to read).
Daniel Jones has been surrounded by one of the most talented groups of football players for the upcoming year. If there is any time for Danny Dimes to shine, it is this year. Don’t forget his rushing upside as well. With projections over 4,000 yards passing and 500 yards rushing alongside 34 total touchdowns Jones is a steal at the end of your draft.
Number 2: Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford has also been one of two options: A Top-12 quarterback or a week-to-week streaming option. Example A was him with a healthy, number one wide receiver, i.e Calvin Johnson. Take away Calvin Johnson and you had a viable streamer at the position.
I expect an increase is pass volume in the Rams offense vs what the Lions had to offer. With an overall better situation in Los Angeles and a plethora of weapons to throw to, you can expect Stafford to throw the ball 650 times for 5,000 yards. The one other time Matt Stafford did that, he was a top five quarterback.
Number 1: Ryan Tannehill
Ryan Tannehill’s ADP is a crime. He is currently going in the 10th round as the QB13. He is even drafted behind Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields who have never played a NFL snap. From week five on, after A.J. Brown returned from injury, Tanehill was the QB2 in fantasy football. He serves to be a Top-12 quarterback in this offense once again after adding Julio Jones. This might be the first time in a long time we see such a dominant and unstoppable offense.
The Waiting Game
Every fantasy football league that you are in is different. There are personal values and bias’ that come into play, especially in home leagues. Just because I told you Ryan Tannehill is going in the 10th round does not mean he will go there. Some leagues he might go in the 8th round and others in the 13th round. Know your leagues and read the draft board.
The purpose of this article is to show you the value these five players bring at their ADP and their expectations versus said ADP. I am all for reaching a round or two if quarterbacks fly off the board, but a late round QB strategy revolves around the waiting game. How long are you willing to wait for a guy that can still provide value?
That’s the nature of the game. Who finds the best value for their team? In this case, you have five quarterbacks who can potentially be superstars for your fantasy team without having to pay the cost of one. Go out there and dominate your drafts knowing there is a quarterback waiting to be your fantasy rock star.
