Welcome to the fourth and final edition of the League Winners fantasy football ‘league winners’ series. If you missed part one on quarterbacks, check it out here, if you missed part two on running backs, check it out here, and if you missed part three on wide receivers, check it out here.
If you’ve already read it and need a refresher, here’s the premise.
There are many strategies people use to draft their fantasy football teams. Zero running back, robust running back, anchor tight end, positional stacks, etc. All of those strategies are great, but they all have one thing in common. They all revolve around finding players that will outperform their ADP (average draft position). Last year, players like Stefon Diggs and Darren Waller were picked in the middle rounds, but according to ESPN data, were on more than 20% of championship rosters on the ESPN fantasy platform.
A couple of contributors to The League Winners have joined forces Avengers-style to pick out some players that we think will outperform their ADP and be “league winners” in fantasy football drafts for you. If you enjoyed this, follow us on Twitter and keep up with the content we produce throughout the season!
Jeremy Shulman (@FF_Rebel): Jonnu Smith
Jonnu Smith never lived up to expectations in Tennessee. Even with lauded offensive coordinator Arthur Smith who attempted to use him in a variety of ways, Smith has never eclipsed 500 yards receiving or 41 receptions in a season. Though his eight touchdowns last year helped inflate his value, his 65 total targets – by far the most of his four-year career – was just 17th overall at the tight end position.
The reason Smith’s fantasy football ADP is currently so low (TE18), is because of the uncertainty fantasy managers face given his new team and competition at the position. Hunter Henry’s signing absolutely put a damper on the Smith hype just days after the Patriots opened up the vault to secure him. But that uncertainty is one reason he’s a buy.
The other is Josh McDaniels. McDaniels has solidified himself as one of the league’s top play-callers, routinely creating schemes to maximize the talent on his roster. We’ve seen this 2TE design work to perfection before back in 2011 with Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.
I don’t expect Smith and Henry to become top-3 tight ends in 2021, but I do expect good numbers from both as red-zone weapons while becoming the focal point of many of McDaniels’ weekly schemes. That should make Smith a near-lock as a weekly starter, at least, with the upside to become a reliable weapon in fantasy.
With the potential to become his team’s #1 target, he’s a steal at his current draft price.
Keith James (@HighonSports28): Darren Waller
I have Darren Waller everywhere. He is the top dog in Las Vegas’ offense. Waller is only 28 years old and is coming to dethrone Travis Kelce as TE1 this year. His ADP will cost you a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but he is well worth it. Waller had a whopping 145 targets last year. That was good for 107 catches, 1196 yards, and nine touchdowns. If Kelce didn’t have his own historic season, Waller would have been the clear TE1. Kelce will cost a late first-round pick in your drafts and is well worth it based on history. Wait a round or two, take an RB in the first, and pair him with Darren Waller the Baller and watch your squad waltz into the fantasy playoffs.
Jesse Moeller (@JMoeller05): Adam Trautman
Adam Trautman is the late-round tight end you want this year. The comparisons to Detroit are striking; as you have a running back and tight end who will dominate production in the offense. Yet you are getting almost a 100 pick discount on Trautman compared to T.J. Hockenson. I will happily take that discount.
The loss of Michael Thomas benefits Trautman’s output as he will be the early read on passing plays this season, regardless if Jameis or Taysom is under center. Getting the potential output of a top-10 tight end in the double-digit rounds is a huge boon for your team.
Matt Alquiza (@AlquizaFFB): Logan Thomas
Logan Thomas is coming off the board as the TE9, but a top-five finish is a reasonable expectation for Thomas.
Thomas finished as the TE7 in 2020. If nothing else, he could improve due to an improvement to the entire Washington Football Team offense. Ryan Fitzpatrick will bring consistency to the quarterback position that the team missed last season. If Fitzpatrick is an upgrade over the three-headed trash monster of Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, and Taylor Heinicke (hint, he is), then the Washington Football Team should see significantly more scoring opportunities. If that’s the case, the big-bodied former quarterback Logan Thomas should be a benefactor. Thomas led all tight ends in red-zone catch percentage among tight ends that saw more than 12 targets.
On top of all of that, Thomas got paid this offseason. It is clear that this WFT regime is a big fan of their tight end, and their faith in him will pay of for fantasy owners who take a late-round shot on him.
