Welcome back to part three of the League Winners fantasy football ‘league winners’ series. If you missed part one on quarterbacks, check it out here, and if you missed part two on running backs, check it out here.
If you’ve already read it and need a refresher, here’s the premise.
There are many strategies people use to draft their fantasy football teams. Zero running back, robust running back, anchor tight end, positional stacks, etc. All of those strategies are great, but they all have one thing in common. They all revolve around finding players that will outperform their ADP (average draft position). Last year, players like Stefon Diggs and Darren Waller were picked in the middle rounds, but according to ESPN data, were on more than 20% of championship rosters on the ESPN fantasy platform.
A couple of contributors to The League Winners have joined forces Avengers-style to pick out some players that we think will outperform their ADP and be “league winners” in fantasy football drafts for you. If you enjoy this, check back over the next couple of days as we break down our league winners at each position.
Jesse Moeller (@JMoeller05): Tyler Lockett
Tyler Lockett is a top-12 fantasy wide receiver mispriced as a top-24 fantasy wide receiver. Lockett had his best career season in 2020 and is treated as an afterthought. Let us not forget that Lockett had 100 receptions and led the Seahawks in target share last year.
So why is he going four rounds after DK Metcalf? I do not understand the price difference between the two players. The Seahawks brought in Shane Waldron, who will allow Lockett to thrive all over the field. Take the combination of Woods and Kupp and upgrade it. That is Lockett and Metcalf in 2021. Go ahead and give me the cheaper player of the two who will produce the top-12 numbers for your team this season.
Matt Alquiza (@AlquizaFFB): CeeDee Lamb
This choice feels like a layup, but CeeDee Lamb is going to explode in 2021 and outperform his current ADP of WR13.
With Dak Prescott on the field in 2020, the Cowboys shredded opposing defenses through the air. Prescott was the QB5 through his five healthy weeks, and Lamb was his main target, coming out of the gates as WR11 through five weeks.
There are still questions about Prescott’s health as the off-season dwindles down, but if he is able to start all seventeen games, the Cowboys’ offense will put up video game numbers. Lamb is going to move all over the formation and he should take a leap in his second year. Veteran fantasy football players are well aware of the sophomore breakout for wide receivers, and Lamb is looking to improve on a WR20 finish.
If you extrapolate Lamb’s first five games over a full season, he would have finished as the WR8 just ahead of Adam Thielen. If Lamb just replicates his start to 2020 over the entire 2021 season, he will outperform his ADP. It’s reasonable to expect him to take a leap, and if he outperforms those stats, a top-five finish for the sophomore out of Oklahoma is by no means out of the question.
Jeremy Shulman (@FF_Rebel): DK Metcalf
I’m not sure it’s possible for DK Metcalf to be taken much higher than his ADP of WR3, yet in the three redraft drafts I’m currently in (1 bestball and 2 PPR), he’s gone at WR7, WR5, and WR7 respectively. Regardless, Metcalf is usually gone by the end of round 3. While that’s not likely to change, we need to consider DK’s evolution in his first two years in the league to better understand what could be in store for his third season.
As a rookie in 2019, Metcalf saw 100 targets, catching 58 balls for 900 yards and 7 TDs; by all accounts, it was a successful campaign. As a sophomore in 2020, those numbers skyrocketed to 129 targets, 83 receptions, 1303 yards and 10 touchdowns, a massive improvement in production. To frame his 2020 another way, Metcalf finished top-10 in the league in receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and yards per target.
With all of this success, I still see room to grow for Metcalf in 2020. His understanding of the playbook and route concepts are bound to become stronger, while his rapport-building with quarterback Russell Wilson has been blessed by a full offseason. Additionally, Sean McVay’s latest protégé Shane Waldron has become the team’s offensive coordinator, promising a more dynamic scheme that can work receivers open.
Even if DK’s route tree hasn’t developed significantly and even if Waldren isn’t much of an improvement over former offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, Russell Wilson is still an elite quarterback that can again make up for a ton with his ability. And DK running 9 routes while Russ drops it in the bucket is still money in the bank for fantasy football.
Keith James (@HighonSports28): Mike Williams
Mike Williams is 26 years old, where does the time go?
Williams is entering a contract year and he is about to take off. Playing with one of the brightest young stars in the NFL in Justin Herbert, Mike Williams is being drastically undervalued.
Williams has an ADP of 76 overall (WR37), but he could be a top-12 receiver this year. If Williams can stay healthy his targets should produce high-end WR2 numbers and possibly crack the top-12. Target Williams late in the middle rounds of your draft and take him over guys going ahead of him such as DJ Chark, Deebo Samuel, and Michael Gallup. He is a player that will lead you to glory.
