Fantasy Football: Michael Thomas Injury Repercussions

 

This morning, Ian Rapoport tweeted that Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas is going to miss four months after removing from ankle surgery in June. By my amateur calendar reading skills, that means Thomas will return in October, missing the first month of the season. This news has massive ramifications for the Saints offense and how we value their playmakers for fantasy football purposes

Unfortunately, it feels like a downgrade for the entire offense, but some Saints players may benefit for the first month of the season. Follow along as we quickly break down who’s stock is up, and whose stock is down on the Saints offense.

Stock Up

Alvin Kamara

Without Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara should absolutely feast. Kamara saw double-digit carries 12 times last season and seven of them were in weeks where Thomas was inactive. Also, in games where Thomas was active, Kamara saw an average of 5.4 targets per game.

However, when Thomas was inactive, Kamara averaged 9.8 targets per game. You were drafting Kamara as a top-four pick in redraft leagues, but now he has a case to be the overall RB1 until Thomas gets back. He is one of the most talented backs in the league and he’s going to see a Dalvin Cook/Christian McCaffrey-esque workload for at least the first month of the 2021 season.

Tre’Quan Smith

Someone has to get some targets at wide receiver, right? Tre’Quan will be the de facto number one wide receiver in New Orleans in Thomas’ absence. In the games that Thomas missed last year, Smith had some bright moments, culminating with four catches, 54 yards, and two touchdowns against the Lions in week four. Depending on who’s playing quarterback (see my next stock up), Smith’s value is capped as a middling WR3, but he becomes draftable in all formats as a fill-in WR for the first month following the Thomas news.

Taysom Hill

The biggest thing that Jameis Winston had going for him in the quarterback battle over Taysom Hill was that the Saints may have wanted to run a more traditional offense that would suit Jameis’ strengths. However, now that Michael Thomas has gone down, Sean Payton may want to run an offense that is a little more gimmicky due to their lack of playmakers outside of Kamara.

If Thomas missing time leads to Taysom Hill being the Saints starting quarterback for the first month, Hill is a locked and loaded QB1. In weeks 11-14 of 2020 Taysom finished as the QB4, QB8, QB11, and QB8 making him the QB6 overall. His rushing floor gives him ridiculous upside and he should be drafted around guys like Justin Herbert and Matt Stafford in fantasy drafts.

Adam Trautman

Another guy who should absorb some of the targets that would have gone to Thomas. Trautman came out of college with an elite athletic profile and solid draft capital was spent on him. He was stuck behind Jared Cook on the depth chart in 2020, but he has the tight end position to himself in 2021. Look for Trautman to fly up tight end rankings and watch his ADP rise as more people begin to realize that the Saints have a potential fantasy football TE1 on their roster.

Stock Down

Michael Thomas (duh)

I had Thomas as the WR9 in my draft rankings and I bumped him down to the WR25. This really sucks. Thomas was the WR1 in 2019 and had a stellar season, but this is going to be two straight years where he battled injuries.

Is he injury-prone? I’m not sure if that’s even a thing, but he’s definitely going to take a hit in dynasty valuation because of these past two seasons. There’s a chance he comes back from this injury like the 2019 version of himself, but you’re going to have to look at him in your IR spot for at least a month if you want to reap the benefits of waiting.

Jameis Winston

If Jameis does end up starting, who is he going to throw the ball to? Jameis’ fantasy football value in Tampa Bay came from his carefree attitude in throwing the ball deep to his elite weapons. Now, he’s going to have *checks notes* Tre’quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, and Deonte Harris as his wide receivers? No thanks.

Tre’Quan will derive some value because someone has to, but that doesn’t mean Winston will be putting up QB1 fantasy football stats. Thomas gave Winston an elite option at wide receiver and they could have been mutually beneficial for each other in fantasy purposes, but without Thomas, I want nothing to do with Jameis.

Any Saints futures you may have money on

This is tough news for any Saints fans or Saints bettors. Losing Michael Thomas is a downgrade to the entire Saints offense, and their team wins total. Unfortunately, the lack of playmaking on the Saints outside of Kamara may doom them.

The team is already in a major transition period after losing New Orleans icon Drew Brees, and this is just another blow to a team trying to figure out their identity in a post-Brees world. I was down on the Saints as a whole coming into the season, but this news has me dropping them even further into the depths of the NFC standings.