Fantasy Football Monday Night Boom or Bust
Spread – Dallas -3.5, O/U 51.5
Last Week
Week 2 of Monday Night Football seemed to set the world right again. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers do what they normally do, and destroyed the Lions on national TV. The Lions hung tight for the first half, but Aaron Jones took off and the Packers ran away with the game. In fantasy football, the Packers did a lot of damage as well and this game was over by the beginning of the 4th quarter.
For those paying attention to my gambling picks at the end, I was shockingly prophetic. I thought the game would be Packers 35- Lions 17. That was the final score, though it went different than I thought. It was an Aaron Jones night. I thought it would be more of a Rodgers day. Rodgers was sharp; he had a couple of touchdowns, and as usual this Packer team at home against an inferior opponent is dangerous.
The Packers righted the ship and looked every bit as good as their championship aspirations. Before jumping into Week 3, it’s time for some accountability.
Accountability
Boom – Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Boom – 0 receptions on 0 targets. 0 Points
This was a big fat loss. As I said, Week 2 was Aaron Jones doing it all. I felt with MVS’s usage the week before, that he was ready to turn the corner this season. I foresaw a big play and a few grabs. Welp, I was wrong and nothing happened. Fantasy football humbles all. That’s on me. Better days will come.
Bust – Jared Goff
26/36 for 246 yards passing, two touchdowns, and one pick. 1 rush for 4 yards. 20.44 fantasy points
This was another loss. 20 points is solid. Goff got off to a great start to the game, putting the Lions up 7-0 early as he hit Cephus in the corner of the end zone. This game was a tale of two halves. The Lions hung alright for the first half, but were then blown out in the second.
The rain started to come down and the Lions went into a shell. The Lion’s defense is atrocious. They are going to struggle all year. Dan Campbell wants his players to play angry, they will show up the first year of Campbell’s tenure. But this team lacks talent everywhere on defense. Their defensive line is bad, their linebackers are not good, and their secondary is bad and beat up. All were exposed on Monday Night.
As for BidDaddy, I was a porous 0-2. Fantasy Football can be fickle. There will be better days.
Let’s start with Week 3, shall we?
Boom – DeVonta Smith
Similar to last Monday Night, I like a wide receiver going against a leaky secondary. The Cowboy’s defense has improved from an awful 2020 season, but they are still susceptible to the pass. In all fairness, the ‘Boys have played Tom Brady and Justin Herbert; but they sit dead last in pass yards per game given up at 346 yards per game. This week they will be without Demarcus Lawrence.
They have cleaned up a lot but they can be had in the passing game. Jalen Hurts is not an excellent passer in his 2nd year, but he can hurt teams. No doubt that DeVonta Smith has been the Eagle’s go-to wide receiver. Smith has 15 targets in two games, with a 27.3% target share. He is going to get looks from Hurts. The former teammates have enjoyed early success. I expect this game to be a shootout, with Smith and Hurts to link up for solid production.
Fire up Smith with zero delays this week.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 85 yards, 1 touchdown
Buster – Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard looked great last week against the Chargers. His snap share increased from 24% in Week 1 to 34% in Week 2; and Pollard made the most of it. Pollard had 16 touches for 140 total yards and found the end zone.
I love Tony Pollard’s talent but I wouldn’t chase his points against the Eagles. Fantasy football is as much about game flow as it is about talent. The Eagles are a top ten rush defense so far in 2021. They have only given up 25 points and 3.8 yards per rush. They have a solid defense. I don’t foresee Pollard being involved in the same type of game flow.
Pollard looks like he has more juice than Zeke, but Elliott is still the starter and heavily used. Following a disastrous fantasy game the week before, the Cowboys got both their running backs rolling against the Chargers. Zeke had 18 touches and his snap share was 71% on the week.
Pollard’s breakout followed a heavy run script. I believe the Cowboys will be passing more in the MNF game against the Eagles. Pollard has had breakout games before and then came right back down to Earth. With Zeke still squarely ahead of TP, look for TP to take a step down a peg this week.
Prediction: 8 rushes for 38 yards. 2 catches for 12 yards, no touchdowns
For my gambling friends out there, I am taking the Eagles with the points (+3.5). I also like the over at 51.5. This is a big game on a big stage. Two division rivals, early in the season. I see a close game and the Cowboys sneaking out with a win at home.
Final Score – Cowboys 30- Eagles 27
