Dissecting the fantasy football outlook for the New York Jets Zach Wilson, Michael Carter, and Elijah Moore in the 2021 NFL season.
The Ship of Theseus is a thought experiment originally introduced by Plutarch at some point around the first century. Basically, the idea is that, if a wooden ship were to rot over time and all of its boards were eventually replaced, would it be the same ship? British philosopher Thomas Hobbes later added the idea that, if all of those rotting boards were reclaimed and then used to build a second ship, which ship would be the Ship of Theseus? And, perhaps more importantly, how would you distinguish between the two?
Philosophers throughout time have been puzzled by this paradox, often offering solutions that question the idea of sameness. What is it that makes something the same as it was before? The same as something else?
Fantasy football, in truth, is one big thought experiment. We rely on data to make complex and accurate projections each year as to who will perform and who will bust, but it’s never as simple as it appears. While some players and teams experience obvious change that helps us to predict their likeliest outcomes, the truth is that every player and team is changed from one year to the next.
So the real paradox of fantasy football is not how the ship has remained the same. Rather, the paradox is how much has the ship changed? Has it rotted and now requires replacement, or can a second ship built from all new materials be as relevant, or more relevant, than the first?
To look at this idea more closely, let’s review it through the lens of a team that nearly won the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes just one year ago: The New York Jets.
The Jets’ 2020 wasn’t exactly smooth sailing, as they drifted aimlessly through the season and ended up moored to the bottom of the league standings, winning just two games. Between Sam Darnold‘s injury history and subpar play, an ineffective running game, and “offensive guru” Head Coach Adam Gase, the team barely left the dock last season. And now, without leading rusher Frank Gore, starting wide receiver Breshad Perriman, and the aforementioned Gase and Darnold, the Jets’ look a lot different in 2021.
But the thought experiment for Jets’ fans this offseason is this: will first-year head coach Robert Saleh’s ship look that much different than Gase’s?
The hope is that this is a different vessel entirely. Rookie signal-caller Zach Wilson now helms the offense and free agent wide receiver Corey Davis is all-but-assured a starting spot at wideout. Elijah Moore, Michael Carter and Alijah Vera-Tucker also highlight an offensive overhaul that sought to replace most of the rot leftover from the Gase era and right the ship in Saleh’s first season.
But there are still problems with this offense.
Most notably, the Jets offensive line – a unit that Pro Football Focus ranked 29th just one year ago – is rated 22nd by PFF headed into the 2021 season. The addition of Vera-Tucker moves the needle, but considering that the group was dead last in pressure rate allowed on the quarterback last season while also failing to open running lanes for its mediocre backs, it might not look too much different this season.
So, with all that said, what can we expect from a new staff and the fresh-faced, fantasy-relevant rookies from a fantasy football perspective on this offense? Let’s have a quick look:
Zach Wilson, QB
2nd overall selection, 2021
Zach Wilson was praised throughout the draft process for his mobility and creative play-making while at BYU. With Russell Wilson-esque escapability and a cannon for an arm, scouts loved his prospects to immediately improve an NFL team. When the Jets selected him over Trey Lance and Justin Fields in this year’s draft, it was clear that they believed in his talent, too.
But will that talent translate to fantasy football success in year one? Probably not.
Wilson, if he’s lucky, is likely looking at a Josh Allen-type of year one line. In 10 games in 2018, Allen threw for 2,074 yards, with 10 TDs and 12 INTs, while rushing for 631 yards and adding eight more TDs. While I don’t expect Wilson to run as effectively and recklessly as the rookie Allen did, he will be working with a new staff that will be finding their footing as well.
New offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur is on record as wanting to run the ball first, with a similar philosophy to former boss Kyle Shanahan and older brother Matt LaFleur. So we can assume that if the running game can get going, there should be some open lanes for Wilson to throw.
As the current QB25 off the board according to Sleeper’s most recent Redraft ADP, it doesn’t seem like Wilson has much of a ceiling. Though Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Jamison Crowder, and Keelan Cole make for a somewhat decent receiving group, I’d be shocked if any truly breakout this year.
For me, Wilson is unlikely to crack the QB2 range for fantasy football, so he’s valued appropriately. Without the insane rushing upside of a Josh Allen, he’s looking more like Sam Darnold than we all might want to admit.
Elijah Moore, WR
34th overall selection, 2021
Following in the Mississippi footsteps of now-star NFL wide receivers AJ Brown and DK Metcalf, Elijah Moore probably struggles to literally fill the shoes of the hulking wideouts at just 5’9.5” and 178 pounds. What he doesn’t struggle with is anything else.
Though Moore shares a completely different production profile to his fellow Ole Miss alums, his production was similarly impressive. Moore posted the second-most receptions and receiving yards in the NCAA-I last season while only playing eight games. That’s a 13-game pace of 140 receptions and 1,939 yards, or, more receptions and yards in the same amount of games as Heisman-winner DeVonta Smith.
So we know Moore can ball out. But the bigger question is, will he as a rookie? The Jets’ receivers room isn’t exactly stacked, but Jamison Crowder has been a productive slot at the NFL level. There has been some beat chatter about Moore potentially lining up outside, but the slot still seems like Moore’s best bet to see significant production.
Given Crowder’s continued presence, the Jets somewhat poor offense, the uncertainty of a new staff, and Wilson being thrust into action as a rookie, I’m fading Moore in 2021. Even though WR53 is the price of a cup of coffee, I prefer to pick me up a Darnell Mooney (WR52) or Rondale Moore (WR54) instead.
Looking at Jets leading receiver Jamison Crowder and his 59/699/6 line from a year ago, that seems like a ceiling for the talented Moore in year 1.
Michael Carter, RB
107th overall selection, 2021
Taken at the top of round 4, Michael Carter was a nice grab for the RB-needy Jets. If we’re to believe the beat reporters and hype so far, it looks like he’s set to lead the team’s committee come September.
As the 1A to Tevin Coleman’s, Ty Johnson’s or La’Mical Perine’s 1B, Carter should see a healthy dose of work in the passing game while getting some early down work, too. No stranger to a committee, Carter split work with the Broncos’ Javonte Williams at UNC; where both thrived and were able to stay fresh while the team didn’t miss a beat.
The Jets will hope to find similar success, as Carter leads the charge. But, like Wilson, he’s not looking a whole lot different from lead rusher Frank Gore from a year ago. Gore managed 3.5 yards per carry behind a bottom-five offensive line, yet Carter has more pass-catching chops than Gore so he’s got the edge in that department for sure.
If we look at 750ish yards on the ground, Carter could put up another 400 through the air as the team’s primary pass-catcher out of the backfield. If he accomplishes this, he’ll easily surpass Gore’s production and improve the Jets’ outlook overall.
At a Sleeper Redraft PPR ADP of RB37, there is a decent chance he exceeds his fantasy football value. But I’m not putting all (or really any) of my eggs in Carter’s basket as anything more than a flier after my fantasy RB room has been solidified.
All in all, this year’s Jets team doesn’t look much different from the 2020 version. Though Wilson, Moore, and Carter are clearly talented and an upgrade over the departed Darnold, Perriman and Gore, I’m not expecting all the new pieces to gel in their first season together. The future does look bright but, at least as far as the Jets and their fans are concerned, this is unfortunately the same ship with completely different parts in 2021.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.