As the 2023 NFL Draft rapidly approaches, fantasy football managers are left to decide what to do with their running back room. I rarely advocate for buying veteran running backs in the off-season, as the landscape of a team’s backfield can shift dramatically from now until Week 1. The draft, training camp, preseason and injuries can take a running back that seemingly held value, and turn him into waiver-wire fodder. This is an article in a series as I take a division-by-division look at the backfields around the league.
With that in mind, let’s look at each team’s running back situation and see who might be in the market to add or subtract a player from their backfield.
This is the last article in a four part series. My previous article in the series, highlighting the NFC East and NFC West, can be viewed here. You can view my article regarding the AFC East and AFC West, here. You can also view my AFC South and AFC North article here.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Jones- AJ Dillon- Tyler Goodson
The Green Bay Packers‘ offense is in a state of turmoil and could be in for major changes. Aaron Jones had his worst season in recent memory, but was still a solid fantasy football asset when he was healthy. AJ Dillon has been over drafted his entire career in hopes of him taking over as the lead back, but to date, that hasn’t been the case.
Between age and injuries, Jones seemed to fade down the stretch in 2022. That opened up a period of productivity for Dillon. If the Packers were to give Dillon a significant workload, he could be a steal in redraft leagues. In the end, both of these players could be steals or busts based on where they go in fantasy drafts. If either falls, I’m willing to take a chance on them; but if they go where they went in 2022 drafts, I won’t have them on any of my rosters.
Tyler Goodson was intriguing coming out of college but holds little value outside of Dillon or Jones going down to injury or moving on. Leave him on the waiver wire and take a chance on one of the other two should they fall to a decent value.
Detroit Lions
David Montgomery- D’Andre Swift- Craig Reynolds
The Detroit Lions had an interesting off-season, to say the least. They let the heart and soul of their team walk in Jamaal Williams. Instead, they opted to pay for a running back who is younger, but not a huge upgrade. David Montgomery was that signing, and muddies up the waters in this backfield. The likely outcome is that the Lions will deploy a full-on running back by committee between Montgomery and D’Andre Swift.
A running back by committee approach for the Lions likely spells fantasy football disaster. It will take two young running backs who both seemed to have limitless potential and cut their fantasy ceiling in half. If a Lions committee is what we get for the 2023 season, we will be lucky to have one trustworthy starter out of the two. This may be a great move for real-life football, but it’s terrible for fantasy football.
Craig Reynolds showed that he could be useful for fantasy in the event of an injury in front of him. He is nothing more than a waiver wire injury replacement.
Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook- Alexander Mattison- Kene Nwangwu
Another situation where one superstar running back appears to be slowing down and could ultimately find his team moving on from him. The Minnesota Vikings have given every indication that they intend to release or trade Dalvin Cook once his shoulder is healed and he can pass a physical. If this proves to be the case and the Vikings don’t use a high pick on a rookie, it could finally be time for career backup, Alexander Mattison, to get his chance.
Mattison has played in a handful of games over the past few seasons when Cook was out with injury. In every one of those games, he showed he could produce similar results to Cook. Mattison is unlikely to have an ADP anywhere near that of what Cook was; and while he does not have the ceiling of Cook, he will be a draft-day steal as the lead back.
Kene Nwangwu is an intriguing option. He could provide value as the backup to Mattison if the latter becomes the starter. In addition to solid talent as a rusher, Nwangwu also returns value on special teams and could be worth a late-round flier.
Chicago Bears
Khalil Herbert- D’Onta Foreman- Travis Homer
The fantasy football community drumbeat for Khalil Herbert has been building steadily ever since he filled in for an injured David Montgomery in 2022 and proved he could be a starter. So when Montgomery moved on from the Chicago Bears, the hype for Herbert went through the roof; I immediately told everyone to sell high. The Bears were almost certainly going to draft a running back to pair with him. Unfortunately for fantasy managers that sell high window slammed shut almost instantly, as the Bears brought in former Panther D’Onta Foreman to presumably form a 1-2 punch.
Another muddy running back situation and another team expected to deploy a running back by committee. I expect both Foreman and Herbert to have their usable weeks for fantasy, but it could be unpredictable, as it was for Foreman and Hubbard in Carolina last season.
Travis Homer is a depth piece and holds little value outside of an injury. Although when a starter does go down to injury it typically means Homer himself will have to be healthy – which often is not the case.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara- Jamaal Williams- Dwayne Washington
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, Jamaal Williams will be a draft-day steal. Yes, I understand he is in store for some serious touchdown regression; but as of now, he is the backup to Alvin Kamara who I expect to be suspended for at least eight games for his pending criminal charges.
When he does step on the field, Kamara is unlikely to be the player fantasy football managers remember. In a new-look offense without Drew Brees or Sean Payton, he is likely to disappoint regardless of his current discount of two rounds. The New Orleans Saints no longer operate as a team that will check down to the running backs ten times per game. This, combined with him losing a step, has put a damper on Kamara’s production.
If Williams falls outside of the first seven rounds of fantasy drafts, he will provide a solid return on investment. If his ADP is inflated after leading the league in touchdowns, then the Saints backfield with be one to avoid for 2023.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rachaad White- Chase Edmonds- KeShawn Vaughn
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a mess. This backfield is a mess. Rachaad White has the potential to be a fantasy stud if he is given a three-down workload, but I’m not sure if that fits his skillset. White should see the majority of the work, but, if he is to hold up for the entire season, Tampa Bay will need to acquire a more viable backup than Chase Edmonds.
This offense could be the worst we’ve seen since the days before Jameis Winston. Regardless of whether they choose to start Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask, the Buccaneers are likely to be a bottom-half offense for the 2023 season. The upside is not here for White, even if he manages to secure the bell-cow role.
Edmonds and KeShawn Vaughn have seen their share of hype throughout their NFL careers – and both have largely disappointed. Neither figures to be relevant for 2023 redraft leagues aside from the odd game where Edmonds contributes a few catches.
Atlanta Falcons
Tyler Allgeier- Cordarrelle Patterson- Caleb Huntley
I’m a huge fan of Tyler Allgeier. He led me to multiple fantasy championships in 2022 after grabbing him off the waiver wire. Having said that, drafting him in early this year terrifies me. As much as I am a fan of him, Day 3 running backs don’t typically match their rookie production.
The Atlanta Falcons need a ton of help on defense. They should use their draft picks there, but that doesn’t mean they will; and a Day 2 or 3 rookie running back could cut into the workload of Allgeier.
Cordarrelle Patterson was largely useless for ten years in fantasy football before a Year 11 breakout; but at his age and injury history, I can’t see him being useful in 2023 leagues. The worst case scenario is that he is just productive enough to eat into Allgeier’s workload and ruin both players for fantasy. Caleb Huntley has stepped in from time to time and has shown little to make managers think he will be a valuable fantasy asset. You can avoid him in drafts.
Carolina Panthers
Miles Sanders- Chuba Hubbard- Raheem Blackshear
The Carolina Panthers are going to be starting a rookie at quarterback in 2023. As such, Miles Sanders could prove to be a valuable safety net for CJ Stroud or Bryce Young. I expect Sanders to set a career-high in receptions this season.
While he may not be on a potent offense like in Philadelphia, Sanders will certainly see a steady workload. This could be the breakout season many have expected Sanders to have all along. At his current ADP, he is a steal and should finish as an RB1.
Chuba Hubbard and Raheem Blackshear are the perfect storm of backups for Sanders. They are both good enough that the Panthers won’t feel the need to bring in another running back; but they are both bad enough that neither should be a threat to Sanders’ touches. Sanders is going to have a career year on the Panthers. Draft him often as he looks to be settling into the running back dead zone in drafts.
