I’m not sure where your fantasy football leagues stand, but I have a trade deadline or twelve fast approaching. So, naturally, I’m keeping one eye on this week but the other on the future for contending teams.
In redraft, that means it’s time to buy if you can. In dynasty, you should already be either buying or selling; and if not, the time is nigh.
But whether or not you’ve made the appropriate moves already, time may be running short. Thankfully, there’s still time. So use it wisely by taking advantage of multitasking your way to the top or the bottom. Take every advantage you can get to protect yourself against those other squads who wish you harm.
With that, let’s have a look at some Week 11 deep fantasy football sleepers. As always, before we do, it’s time to turn an eye back on Week 10 and see how we did.
Week 10 Review
Russell Wilson, QB – Last week’s fantasy football QB21 didn’t exactly light the world on fire. Russ was decent, but certainly not dangerous. In a matchup against a previously pretty beatable secondary, Wilson was beyond average. He threw for yardage, yes, but only 1 touchdown. He did nothing on the ground despite 7 rush attempts. I mentioned last week that Russ may have been a steal coming off a bye week, but that simply was not the case. Whether it’s his reads and understanding of the offense, the poor play of his offensive line, or poor playcalling from the Broncos’ staff, I’m no longer sure. It’s probably all of those things. Either way, I’m out on Wilson for the foreseeable future. Big L at QB this week for me.
- projected: 250/3/1 passing; 4/25/0 rushing
- actual: 286/1/1 passing; 7/8/0 rushing
Jonathan Taylor, RB – Though banking on the uncertainty behind Russ did not pan out, banking on JT was as lucrative as it gets this week. The overall fantasy football RB1 in Week 10 was ranked as the RB31 headed into Friday; making him an easy buy for me assuming things went well. You likely weren’t benching him, but I also wanted to illustrate the confidence I had in Taylor; given that others were concerned for him with the turmoil surrounding the team. Yes, it was the Las Vegas Raiders porous D. But if Matt Ryan continues to play well and the line can step up just a little bit, JT could be a backend RB1 from here on out. He’s certainly not likely to be the RB31 ever again. Especially with the 100% usage in this one. Massive W.
- projected: 15/80/1 rushing; 3/20/0 receiving
- actual: 22/147/1 rushing; 2/16/0 receiving
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR – Wan’Dale was set up to smash last week, but nothing ever came of it. Instead, Daboll and the Giants threw the rock just 17 times, electing to feed Saquon instead. That’s never a bad idea. What was a bad idea was starting the week’s WR77; who amassed just 2 receptions for 20 yards while rushing the ball once for -5 yards. The Darius Slayton big day was one thing. But it’s tough when the likes of Matt Breida, Isaiah Hodgins, and Tanner Hudson outgain you. New York is 7-2, and they’re seemingly making it work with whichever warm bodies they decide to lineup at wideout each week. But, that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Eventually, Robinson should get things going again. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen this week. L again.
- projected: 5/55/1
- actual: 2/20/0 receiving; 1/-5/0 rushing
Cole Kmet, TE – Going back to the well proved fruitful at TE this week. Kmet once again finished the weekend as the TE1 in fantasy football. The matchup, and of course the fact that his second-year QB is balling out, told the tale in this one. The Lioins remain one of the best matchups for TEs, even moreso after Cole’s 2 TD game. It was his second 2 TD game in as many games, his second TE1 finish in as many games, and, he did it while Justin Fields completed just 12 passes on the day.
The Bears were beaten by the Lions; so I don’t doubt that they’re likely to stick with this formula if they can. But Kmet has shown he can dominate poor competition; which is likely why he’s moved all the way up to TE8 in ECR this week against Atlanta. It’s nice to see he’s proven he can succeed. He should be someone you can rely on at the TE position in plus-matchups.
- projected: 5/50/1
- actual: 4/74/2
Two huge hits last week while correctly picking the #1 RB and TE is a roaring success. I’ll hope to continue dreaming big this week; while I keep my eye on the prize of helping you to identify who’s a true fantasy football sleeper and who’s just pretending.
But first…
Here’s a look at how I define fantasy football sleepers and my wins and losses in their selection:
- Players ranked outside of the QB12, RB30, WR40 and TE12 for a given week based on the weekly PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) on Fantasy Pros are eligible to be chosen. That’s roughly guys at or beyond the consensus top-100.
- For a player to ‘hit’, I’m requiring a finish just about within the top-60 overall players. That means he was a serviceable starting piece that contributed meaningfully to your lineup; and he also exceeded expectations in a significant way. Historically, he put up at least 15 PPR points.
- For QBs and TEs, I’ll require a top-8 finish, though very close calls will be explored further to see if they helped you win your week.
It’s deep sleeper time for Week 11. It may be a little bit uncomfortable, but you probably want to start these guys if you’re in a pinch. Here we go.
Shulman’s Sleepers: Week 11
QB: Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons
Fantasy Pros ECR: QB14
Russell Wilson is once again the play this week; but I just can’t bring myself to believe in him or his 3-6 Denver Broncos any more. So, it’s over to Mariota, who has quietly become the year’s QB11 in total points. His 4-6 Falcons are also in the thick of the NFC South race and could legitimately earn a playoff berth if the Packers, Commanders and Cardinals continue to falter. But, first, a Week 11 date with Chicago awaits.
Justin Fields is the consensus QB3 this week. Most analysts (including myself) expect he’ll have little trouble with a Falcons D that has struggled against QBs this season. Also, the Bears have been lighting up the scoreboard in recent weeks, posting at least 29 points in four straight contests. Given they’ve done that against the Patriots and Cowboys, the Falcons should provide little resistance. All of this is to say that Mariota will have to find a way to extend drives with his legs and put the ball into the end zone through the air.
In a matchup his team should win at home, Mariota will have to feed his pass-catching playmakers with high-efficiency once again should they hope to keep up with this somehow now-high-flying Bears O.
Mariota needs to be good if his team is going to have a shot in this one. There is little chance Atlanta slows down this Chicago offense
Prediction: 210 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT; 6 rushes, 40 yards, 1 TD = 25.4 points
RB: Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers
Fantasy Pros ECR: RB31
Mitchell is an interesting case study of what the heck is Kyle Shanahan gonna do week to week. While Christian McCaffrey is the clear RB1 in the Bay Area, Mitchell has some flex appeal in good matchups. From starter to IR to second-fiddle to relevant once again, Eli received 20 touches last week on his way to an RB24 overall finish. I’m expecting even better things this week.
While it’s hard to know if CMC will or should receive a ton of touches in Arizona this weekend, it’s very probable that the 49ers defense shuts down a hot-again/cold-again Cardinals O. With Kyler’s status still up in the air, it’s all the more likely that the 49ers roll again this week – notching their 3rd straight W behind an elite defensive performance.
If that’s the case, SF could limit McCaffrey once again, or even shut him down completely late in a blowout. Enter the now-expendable Mitchell to soak up the touches and allow Shanny’s scheme to do what it wants to: run the ball a ba-zillion times per game.
Mitchell looked pretty good in his first return to action since Week 1. I won’t be surprised if he finds the end zone this week, which is all he should need to provide your squad with a return on his fantasy football flex value.
Prediction: 12 carries, 60 yards; 2 receptions, 15 yards; 1 total TD = 15.5 points
WR: Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys
Fantasy Pros ECR: WR41
In a week filled with bye weeks and will-he/won’t-he options, give me Gallup as a guy who is ranked far too low on this list of middling WRs. Sure, his production has been uninspiring thus far this year. But he’s seemingly only been back to full health and full trust from Dak over the past two games. In that time, he’s earned 13 targets, catching 8 of them for 84 yards. He’s also been floating around an 18% target share, which should bode well for this weekend.
Not only is Zeke still hurting, but a matchup at Minnesota is likely to result in a tough task for the Dallas D; which has ceded points to Justin Fields and Aaron Rodgers over their last two games. Now, facing a more-potent offense in the Vikings, and in the dome in Minnesota, there is the clear potential for a classic shootout between two top contenders in the NFC.
Gallup is sure to benefit from the assumed game script, a banged-up Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb and Dalton Schultz commanding defensive attention, and the overall effectiveness of the offense. In a statement game with the potential for big offensive plays, Gallup is a weapon that needs to be deployed for Dallas to be firing on all cylinders and compete with the divisions best.
I expect Gallup to get plenty of run and usage in this one. McCarthy and company know they need to get him involved to make noise in the playoffs this season. You can expect him to post a good day for your fantasy football squads, too.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 65 yards, 1 TD = 17.5 points
TE: Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers
Fantasy Pros ECR: TE24
If Cole Kmet were an option this week, I’d absolutely be taking him. Instead, the TE8 is out of reach. So I’ll reach for Gerald Everett who, with a groin injury, is all the way down at TE24 this week.
I realize it’s a long shot for Everett to play and see meaningful work just a week removed from injury. But the team needs him in what could be a shootout against the division rival Kansas City Chiefs. Dawson Knox and Tyler Conklin don’t exactly inspire confidence. Give me this season’s TE9 to potentially find the end zone and, perhaps more importantly, find the volume needed to produce in a game where he will be needed so much. There’s not much else left to say about Everett; he’s had mostly a week of rest and that KC is currently giving up 10.9 fantasy points per game to the position.
If Everett goes, he’ll need to perform if LA has any hope of earning the W. Once again, we’re relying on offensive need, but the talent and past usage remains. If he plays, he’s in my lineups this week.
Prediction: 5 receptions, 40 yards, 1 TD = 15.0 points
That’s it for this edition of Shulman’s Sleepers. Hopefully your Week 11 ends with you gripping your pillow tight with extreme joy. To do that, as the sages of historical record Metallica reminds us: sleep with one eye open.
Jeremy Shulman
Jeremy is an avid football fan from New York who lives in Amsterdam and roots for the Patriots. This walking contradiction has played fantasy football for over than 20 years. He is now a Senior Dynasty Writer at The League Winners. In his spare time, he writes and edits professionally.