Can these players imitate Nico Collins’ breakout season for fantasy football?
Nico Collins was a league winner for so many fantasy football managers last year. His story is not a common one, however. Entering his third season, Collins was a struggling third-year receiver who looked doomed to be a perpetual rotational player. He was held back by injury, the team around him, and frankly, himself. Then, the Houston Texans selected C.J. Stroud in the 2023 NFL draft, and Collins surprised many, finishing as a WR1 in fantasy football. Intending to capture that magic again this year, our team collaborated to try and find “this year’s Nico Collins” to help fantasy football managers win their league.
Brandon Haye: Jahan Dotson
Jahan Dotson had a promising rookie season that was cut short by injuries. It looked like he would be primed for a breakout in his second year. Dotson would have more targets and receptions, but the touchdowns and yards per catch would decrease in 2023. Dotson only received a 67.5 catchable target rate which was down from 2022. This year, he gets a new rookie quarterback and coordinator, like Collins did last season.
Jayden Daniels supported multiple receivers at LSU and had accuracy at all three levels, completing over 70 percent of his passes. More on-target passes will help Dotson improve on his 1.4 yards after catch on each target last year. The increase in production and better quarterback will help make Dotson “this year’s Nico Collins” for fantasy football purposes.
Erika Brown: Jameson Williams
Jameson Williams has had an interesting start to his NFL career. Drafted in 2022, he began the season recovering from an ACL injury. Even when he made his debut, he did nothing with the opportunity. For 2023, he began the season suspended for four games for gambling. He made his debut in the fifth game of the season and through 12 games, logged 354 yards and two touchdowns.
However, year three could be the breakout year for Williams. He is in a perfect position to be the WR2 for the Detroit Lions, behind Amon-Ra St. Brown. Over the past two seasons, the former first-round pick hasn’t found his footing in the offense. With an offseason and a true full season as a starter, Williams could be a breakout candidate no one saw coming.
After the bye week in 2023, he was on the field for over 50 percent of snaps. With Josh Reynolds leaving for the Denver Broncos, the Lions have a big hole to fill that Williams should be poised to take in 2024. Williams has the talent that made him the 12th overall pick in 2022 NFL draft. Now, he has the opportunity to break out in 2024.
Brandyn Pokrass: Drake London
Being in an Arthur Smith offense is not just bad for one’s mental health, but also one’s physical production. Ask Drake London and Bijan Robinson (sorry in advance to Steelers fans).
With a new scheme and quarterback in place, though, London seems ready for a legitimate breakout in 2024. While not eclipsing 1,000 yards and only having two touchdowns, the USC product has some encouraging underlying stats.
The wide receiver had an ADOT of 11.7 and a contested catch rate of 51.5 percent. He also had six contested catches in the deep (20+ yards) portion of the field. London thrives as a deep threat that can still make defenders miss in space underneath. The only issue he has run into has been a lack of targets, as London has everything it takes to be a star.
With Kirk Cousins under center, London is in a position to thrive. If the offense functions the way it should, the USC product will be in a position to breakout as a true star at his position making him my pick to be “this year’s Nico Collins” for fantasy football.
Shadowcat (Miguel): Hollywood Brown
The former 2019 first-round pick may have a bitter taste to some fantasy football managers. However, this is likely the year that Marquise “Hollywood” Brown cracks the top 20 among wide receivers in fantasy leagues.
Brown is joining his third team in his short career this season. However, he will be playing with his best quarterback to date. That is saying a lot, considering his former quarterbacks were Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray. This season he joins arguably the best in the game today in Patrick Mahomes.
Brown’s best season came in 2021, his final year with the Baltimore Ravens. It was a season in which he had career highs in targets (145), receptions (91), and yards (1,008). In his five-year career, this would be the only season with over 1,000 receiving yards. Brown is no stranger to being a target monster, and has no issue playing alongside elite tight ends, either. The question becomes will Brown be the WR1 for Mahomes?
Mahomes is used to playing with an elite wide receiver. However, this is arguably the best receiver room he has ever played with. Travis Kelce is returning, and Rashee Rice will step back on the field, assuming he can keep his off-field issues to a minimum. Additionally, the team drafted speedy receiver Xavier Worthy along with bringing in Brown during the off-season.
Rice could miss games due to some off-field issues over the off-season. Worthy is a good prospect, but typically rookie receivers take the first half of the season to get acclimated to the pro level. This leads to Brown potentially becoming the de facto WR1 for Mahomes to start the season.
Through the first eight weeks to start the season in 2023, Brown averaged eight targets per game, catching just over 50 percent of those targets. If he is able to develop that chemistry with Mahomes, it’s plausible that both the targets and receptions go up. Brown should be excited to play with the Super Bowl-winning quarterback regardless of who is sharing the field with him. This is the season Brown revitalizes his career by achieving another 1,000-yard season.
Spencer Buckley: Christian Watson
Christian Watson has been a tantalizing player during his first two years in the NFL. He flashes major upside, but his well-documented soft tissue injuries have prevented him from consistently producing. And like Collins, Watson was a known project entering the league, with great raw traits but without the polish needed to be a consistent WR. Now in year three, Watson looks like he is in a crowded situation with fantasy favorites surrounding him in Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft. To be clear this is a crowded and messy situation to untangle. However, Watson should be able to step forward and take over the WR1 spot.
In terms of productivity, Watson has been good when healthy. When he plays over 70 percent of snaps, Watson averages 3.6 Receptions, 63.6 Yards, and .85 receiving TDs. However, he has not reached those snap counts often. Yet with his emphasis on gaining strength symmetry in his legs, Watson will be in a better position to stay healthy and earn targets.
Watson will likely not be a player who gets 110 receptions. However, much like Collins, this is a very talented deep threat and big-play option. In year three Watson will become more consistent and be a league-winning pick for fantasy football managers.
Honorable Mention: Jalen Tolbert
Jalen Tolbert is not quite of the same caliber of player as Watson, and has struggled more than Collins did entering the league. However, Tolbert finds himself in a spot to potentially be a late-round breakout player.
Michael Gallup is gone, Brandin Cooks is another year older, and the tight end room is fine. Dak Prescott could really use a second impact playmaker, and that is what the Cowboys drafted Tolbert to be.
Entering year three, Tolbert has been restricted to occasional go routes and has seldom seen the field. He was raw coming into the league, yet displayed a lot of natural talent in college that needed training. Now, after two years of practicing with Prescott and company, Tolbert is in a place where he can take over the Gallup role and challenge Cooks for the WR2 spot on one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league.
Without an injury to Ceedee Lamb, there is no path for a true breakout on this team. With that said, Tolbert could push 900 yards if things break right for him. If that were to happen, his fantasy football value would far exceed his current price (and ADP) in fantasy leagues.
Evan Solomon: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba fits the mold of a player that underwhelmed at the beginning of his career, only to burst onto the scene and establish himself as an elite talent on the field. Because of that, he is a prime candidate to be “this year’s Nico Collins” for fantasy football purposes.
JSN was a highly touted prospect coming into the league, drafted as the first WR off the board to the Seattle Seahawks in 2023. His prospect profile projects him to be a starter within two years of entering the league. Hopes were high for him to succeed on a team with an aging star in Tyler Lockett.
JSN’s rookie year wasn’t stellar, accumulating just 628 yards and four touchdowns. However, he did show flashes. This season, he gets a new offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb. That means it’s likely the passing attack is going to a focal point for the Seahawks in 2024. Grubb loved to pass the ball as OC for the Washington Huskies, and it’s safe to say he’ll be doing a lot of that this year with the Seahawks. Fantasy football managers should expect big things from JSN in 2024.
Spencer Buckley
Hi Everyone! I'm happy you read this far to see my bio. I am a full time football and baseball enthusiast who would have "100% made the show if I didn't get injured...". Also do some Lawyer stuff in my free time.