Breaking down the fantasy football outlook of Kansas City Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
Clyde Did Not Reach His Clydesdale-like Expectations in 2020
Last April, running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire was drafted out of LSU with the 32nd overall pick by defending Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs. In that moment, fantasy football players began drooling over the possibility of rostering him. His ceiling was believed to have no bounds; being drafted into the best situation possible for any offensive weapon.
Joining head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes, we couldn’t have dreamt a better landing spot! ESPN’s own Louis Riddick proclaimed early on he should be picked as high as first overall in fantasy leagues. Unfortunately for Riddick and many others Clyde’s rookie campaign was a disappointment from a fantasy prospective.
#Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be the first overall pick in fantasy drafts this season. I have had some success with taking rookie RB’s 1st overall in the draft in the past 🤔 @saquon ✌🏾
— Louis Riddick (@LRiddickESPN) August 9, 2020
Rookie Woes
At the beginning of his professional career everything was setting up CEH for success on the field. His backfield running mate Damien Williams, who showed plenty of promise during the Chiefs Super Bowl run in 2019, opted out of the 2020 season due to Covid-19 in late July. This thrust CEH to the top of the depth chart; and immediately we had a promising bell cow RB to salivate over. He skyrocketed up draft boards and became a first round selection in many fantasy football leagues.
Clyde managed to play in 13 games and finished as the 22nd overall running back in PPR. He didn’t live up to the hype and produce like the first or second round pick many drafted him to be. His numbers were average and it was a disappointment given he was joining the most prolific offense in the NFL.
Edwards-Helaire finished with 803 rushing yards, 297 receiving yards on 36 catches, and only five total touchdowns. His efficiency was not impressive either, as his yards per carry (YPC) was 4.4 and his yards per touch (YPT) was 5.1.
In comparison, fellow rookie RB’s D’Andre Swift of the Lions finished at 4.6 YPC and 5.5 YPT; while Jonathan Taylor of the Colts managed 5 YPC and 5.5 YPT. CEH’s opportunity share was near rare bell cow status though at 66% that was good for 12th most at RB.
2021 Expectations
I believe CEH is the prototypical post-hype candidate this coming season. Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you should know the Kansas City Chiefs own the best offense in the NFL. Coach Andy Reid knows how to utilize running backs; especially ones that possess the ability to catch the ball. Andy Reid-lead offenses have produced multiple dominant seasons from running backs such as: Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, and Kareem Hunt.
Thanks to Patrick Mahomes, CEH faced on average 6.5 defenders in the box. That was good for 62nd in the league. This should continue to be a trend as long as Mahomes is under center and defenses have to try to keep the receivers at bay resulting in open space for CEH to work.
One of the reasons Andy Reid running backs have been so successful over the years was their receiving prowess. Coming out of LSU, Edewards-Helaire was projected as a three-down back. He’s not the fastest or a powerhouse, but he possesses plenty of versatility. In 2020, CEH finished with 36 catches on 55 targets. That’s a number we will see climb in 2021. He will be utilized even more in the passing game and I project CEH will have closer to 50 receptions.
Positive regression is one of those phrases you either love or hate in fantasy football, but CEH is due for it in the touchdown department. Finishing with a measly five touchdowns as the starting running back on the best offense just screams positive regression. He should see plenty more scoring opportunities next season.
His consensus ranking today is down at 34. Depending on the size of your league, that puts him in the late 3rd or mid 4th-round. I would be ecstatic if I had the opportunity to draft my RB2 there and a player with the ceiling that CEH possesses; that many believed in just a year ago. I would rather take my chances with him over guys in this area like Miles Sanders and D’Andre Swift. Don’t be shocked when Edwards-Helaire becomes a household name for years to come.
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