The TE position is the toughest to hit on in all of fantasy football. Too many players are TD dependent, which makes it hard to predict. In my last article I looked into two tiers where that last statement is too true. However, these last two tiers we see guys who have the potential to put up consistent weekly points. These players should get healthy target shares and most are in offenses that should produce. Yes, there are two or three names here you might not agree with me on, but hear me out and read why I think they belong here.
I’ll break down my rankings and tell you what I believe you should be doing with these guys on your dynasty rosters. I hope you enjoy reading and let me know what you think, you can find me at @DynastyHoser on Twitter.
Tier 2 – Borderline Every Week Starters
I believe this tier has the upside to be every week starters based on potential target share and TD upside. However, unlike the top tier, these guys have some question marks to overcome.
10. Cole Kmet (Chicago Bears) 93-60-612-0
Nearly 100 targets, but zero TDs on the year! His zero TDs weren’t because of a lack of red zone targets. Kmet actually led the Bears with 13 targets inside the 20, catching 7 of them. Jimmy Graham scored four TDs in 2021; I expect Kmet can match if not exceed that total in 2021. Allen Robinson has signed with the Los Angeles Rams, so this means there is a good chance that Kmet could remain at least second on the team in targets again in 2022. Although this didn’t lead to great production this past year, there were a lot of hurdles for Kmet to overcome.
We want our fantasy football tight ends to be top targets on their teams. Kmet checked a lot of boxes and has room to grow! Kmet is still very young. He is only turning 23 in March, yet he is going into this 3rd year. His price is so attainable right now, a late to mid second could get the job done. If you are iffy at tight end, don’t hesitate to send an offer out for Kmet. I don’t believe he will ever be elite, but I believe he can jump up into the “steady” category and consistently put up top-8 tight end seasons.
Look for Justin Fields to take a step forward in year two. This team is getting a fresh start away from Matt Nagy, whose play calling has been iffy over the years. Their new offensive coordinator, Luke Getzy, was with the Packers the last seven years, serving as their passing team coordinator this past year.
9. David Njoku (Cleveland Browns) 53-36-475-4
Have you seen who his player comp is on PlayerProfiler? Travis Kelce! Can we get half his production please, lol! He is probably not the second coming of Kelce, but he is someone I want to acquire because he is still fairly young, 25 years old, and just got a massive QB upgrade. We saw what he can do when given the full workload in 2018. That year he finished as the TE9, and averaged 7.7 points per game. Those aren’t eye popping numbers, but that was with a rookie QB and only his second year in the league.
His 2019 season was wiped by injuries and then in 2020 the Browns signed Austin Hooper and drafted Harrison Bryant to compete. This year he showed flashes, he had a 7 for 7 day, that resulted in 149 yards and 1 TD in week 5 against the Chargers. The franchise tag turned out to be a great blessing now that Watson is in town and Hooper was released. This offense has shown they like to target the tight end and obviously they felt Njoku was important enough to bring back. Let’s just hope he gets the majority of them.
With the Deshaun Watson trade to the Browns I had to move Njoku into my top ten. Once Watson serves his potential suspension this team will be forced to be reckoned with. There are still a few things that make me a little hesitant, such as the talent of Harrison Bryant, the potential signing of Will Fuller, and that he’s only on the franchise tag. However, Njoku is someone I am targeting late in all startups and looking to acquire cheaply in trades. I believe he could move up these rankings even more if he sticks with Watson and the Browns after this year.
8. Dallas Goedert (Philadelphia Eagles) 76-56-830-4
After the Week 7 trade of Zach Ertz, Goedert finished off the year as the TE6 in fantasy football, averaging 9.6 points over that span. However, two of his four TDs on the season came before the trade, while the other two came in week thirteen while Gardner Minshew was the QB.
There is hope for Goedert to take a big step forward next year. He was second on the Eagles in targets and led the team in red zone targets. However, with the team committing to Jalen Hurts there is some hesitancy on Goedert, which has kept this value attainable.
After Ertz left, Goedert jumped from 3.8 targets per game to 6.8. That will come down now that the Eagles traded for A.J. Brown. If Hurts takes a step forward in his second full season, there is a chance Goedert can still be a weekly starter. He just turned 27 in January, so age shouldn’t deter you from inquiring about Goedert.
I expected Goedert to make the jump into the elite category this year, but now he is fighting Smith for second in the pecking order. That and the fact that we just don’t know what Hurts will bring to the table keeps Goedert a tier below.
7. T.J. Hockenson (Detroit Lions) 84-61-583-4
Despite missing five games to end the year, Hockenson led the Lions in red zone targets with eleven. That was 23% of the team’s red zone targets. He was also second on the team in overall targets, averaging seven per game. That tied him for the lead with Amon Ra St. Brown. His 9.6 fantasy points per game were an increase from the previous year where he averaged 8.9.
Injuries have now taken parts of his rookie season and this past year, but he will only be 25 going into this year. One stat I like to see is that he played 45% of his plays from the slot or lined up outside. He ran routes on 59% of his snaps, which is encouraging, but I’d like to see that number increase if he is going to jump up into the elite tier. Andrews, Kelce, Pitts and Waller are all over 65%.
On top of his injuries you also need to consider the fact that Jared Goff is at best an average NFL QB. He has three years left on his contract, but can be cut after the 2022 season for only a $10M dead cap hit. The Lions also traded up for WR Jameson Williams and signed DJ Chark. However, Williams is coming off an ACL tear which could slow his start to the season and Chark is only signed for one year.
I just don’t know if the opportunity will be there now in this offense. There are a few mouths to feed and I don’t think Goff or a rookie QB can get the job done. He’s too talented to drop much further, but if I could sell high still I would consider it.
Tier 1 – Every Week Starters
These are the players I would trust in my fantasy football lineup each week for the next few years.
6. Darren Waller (Las Vegas Raiders) 93-55-665-2
I believe we will see a bounce-back season from Waller in 2022. Despite missing seven games his numbers weren’t elite, but steady. With Josh McDaniels coming over from New England you better believe the tight end position will still be an important part of this offense.
His 9.6 points per game were his lowest in the last three year. However, he still averaged 8.5 targets per game, which was only half a target less from his elite 2020 season. This will come down with the addition of Adams and the emergence of Waller. One other dip was his red zone targets per game was only at 1.36 this past year, where he was up to 1.7 in 2020.
Waller will turn 30 shortly after the season begins. This offseason is not the right time to be shopping Waller coming off a “down” year. The best time to move him will be mid season when someone is looking for that edge going into the playoffs. If you are contending, Waller is the cheapest option of the “elite” tight ends, but will still cost you a late first plus.
5. Dalton Schultz (Dallas Cowboys) 104-78-808-8
Schutlz was this year’s surprise at the tight end position. He averaged exactly 10 points per game and brought consistency to your lineup for the majority of the year. The last two years he has averaged 5.5 and 6.1 targets per game. That’s impressive with the talent on the Cowboys. The Cowboys did the right thing and franchise tagged Schultz.
I expect Schultz can be a steady top 10 tight end for years to come, even if he leaves Dallas next offseason.
Look for the Cowboys to use this year to work out a long term deal with Schultz. Before the franchise tag was used on him I was all for selling him at his value. However, with him staying in Dallas I believe he is too valuable to move. With Cooper out the door Schultz will have a fighting chance to be second on the team in targets. If a long term deal is reached, Schultz could move up these rankings.
4. George Kittle (San Francisco 49ers ) 94-71-910-6
I am sorry. Kittle is the most frustrating tight end ever for fantasy football! If you have him on your team are you actually happy? For half the season this past year he hurt you badly; nine weeks if you played Week 18 in your fantasy football league.
Yes, he is capable of the big games like he had in Weeks 13/14, but between injuries and dud games I am sure it didn’t feel like a tight end4 finish. He had his lowest points per game since he came into fantasy football relevance in 2018 with 11.6 points per game.
I can’t deny the talent. I am not going to sit here and tell you he isn’t dominant. However, there are factors that make him a sell now. For starters, he will be turning 29 in October; and although I just told you to hold Kelce, I think Kittle’s playing style will wear down earlier than Kelce. Kittle is in the trenches blocking more.
According to rotowire.com Kittle ran routes on 44% of plays this past year, compared to Kelce’s 71%. Other numbers to look at; Kittle was lined up tight on 596 plays and only in the slot 215. Compare that to Kelce again, who was in the slot of 519 and only in tight on 370 plays.
If you have watched Kittle he tends to run through opponents like a bull in a chinashop; whereas Kelce is much more shifty. Trey Lance is another factor who is a sophomore QB with very little playing time over the last few years. Their one game together Kittle had one reception for 29 yards. Lance has a chance to be great, but does his rushing ability eat into Kittle’s targets? I’d rather sell out now than wait and see.
3. Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) 134-92-1125-9+1 Rushing TD
Kelce will be turning 33 in October. Kelce had his streak of three (5 in PPR) straight years as the fantasy football TE1 snapped by Andrews this past year.
Tony Gonzalez was 37 when he put up a season of 83 receptions, 859 yards and 8 TDs. That would have placed him just ahead of Dalton Schultz for third this year among tight ends in fantasy football.
Is Kelce going to play until 37 at a high level? I don’t have that answer, but we have seen zero signs of him slowing down. Since 2016, he hasn’t averaged less than 11.3 points per game. This past year he put up his 3rd highest total at 13.7. He is tied to arguably the best QB in the NFL right now. Whether it is two or four years until we see a drop off in production, he is worth every penny.
If my roster is competitive, I am not moving him. He is too much of a difference maker each and every week in your fantasy football lineup. If I am rebuilding of course you are trying to sell for as high as you can, this will come in season not right now.
2. Mark Andrews (Baltimore Ravens) 153-107-1361-9
Andrews will be turning 27 just as the season begins. He now has three straight years finishing inside the top-5 in fantasy football. In each of those years he averaged over 10 fantasy points per game. He upped his game this past season and put his best foot forward, averaging 14.6 points per game. He will forever be known for dethroning Kelce’s three year run (five in PPR) as the fantasy football TE1. What a year it was for Andrews!
Andrews will remain the #1 target for QB Lamar Jackson. He has led the Ravens in averaged targets per game and red zone targets each of the last three seasons. I expect Andrews will be in the running for the TE1 for the next few years.
Besides, outside of Kyle Pitts, there isn’t a tight end I’d rather have on my fantasy football dynasty squad right now. If you want to acquire him, expect to pay an arm and a leg. He is priced right around the 1.02 in fantasy football superflex rookie drafts.
1. Kyle Pitts (Atlanta Falcons) 110-68-1026-1
Pitts joins Hall of Famer Mike Ditka as the only two rookie tight ends to finish the year with 1000 receiving yards. Although this is a great feat for Pitts, any fantasy football manager who had him was very disappointed with the season.
Pitts led the Falcons in red zone targets with 16, but turned that into 6 catches and only 1 TD. The lack of TDs resulted in many single digit performances for the highly drafted tight end. He averaged 8.4 points a game, which resulted in finishing as the TE7 in fantasy football.
There is no question that Pitts is the fantasy football dynasty TE1. The fear right now though is the Falcons offense as a whole. With the lack of secondary weapons teams are able to lock onto Pitts. Now, he obviously showed he can still put up strong yardage totals, but if the team can’t move the ball consistently, the lack of quality scoring chances will still be an issue. Are fantasy football managers going to need to wait two or three years before the Falcons turn things around? With Matt Ryan traded to the Colts, there could potentially be a year with a rookie QB or Marcus Mariota, who hasn’t seen much action in years.
It might be a bit crazy, but if my team is contending, why not flip PItts for Andrews or one of the vets, plus more? How much more depends on how other fantasy football managers in your league value Pitts. Pitts is very talented there is no denying that, but his younger years might be wasted with a team in transition. He can be good throughout this period, but through no fault of his own I think it’s a while before we see his full potential.
Thanks for sticking with me and reading through my dynasty TE rankings. Good luck with the year!
Sheldon Hand
Sheldon Hand is an elementary school teacher. He started writing in 2019, and started working with The League Winners in 2021. He has been playing fantasy football for fifteen years, got into dynasty seven years ago and have become a bit obsessed.